Study of Diamond Princess Cruise Ship - mortality rate of Wuhan Flu is only 0.5%

Signs are pointing to this being a more widespread, but less serious illness than what our lopsided data initially indicated.

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Estimating the infection and case fatality ratio for COVID-19 using age-adjusted data from the outbreak on the Diamond Princess cruise ship

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Quarantined at sea off Japan after a passenger tested positive for SARS-CoV-2, the ship became a natural data lab where nearly everyone was tested and few cases of infection were missed.

Infections and deaths onboard suggest that the disease’s true fatality ratio in China is about 0.5 percent, though that number may vary from place to place, researchers report March 9 in a paper posted at MedRxiv.org.

That 0.5 percent is far less than the 3.4 percent of confirmed cases that end in death cited by the World Health Organization, but troubling nonetheless. The WHO’s number has come under fire because the true number of people infected with the virus worldwide is not known.

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More than likely, the China was several months behind the outbreak. Community transmissions were likely happening in most countries since late January (possibly earlier). Thousands were likely treated for flu-like symptoms with OTC drugs and have since recovered.

Exponentially more people are infected (or have been infected, but have recovered) than what is reported, making the mortality rate significantly lower than reported. Over 80% of the people who will get Coronavirus will show minor symptoms or no symptoms at all - which makes it much easier to spread.

If this turns out to have a mortality rate much lower than SARS, will you all go back to work?

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As of February 20, tests of most of the 3,711 people aboard the Diamond Princess confirmed that 634, or 17 percent, had the virus; 328 of them did not have symptoms at the time of diagnosis. Of those with symptoms, the fatality ratio was 1.9 percent, Russell and colleagues calculate. Of all infected, that ratio was 0.91 percent. Those 70 and older were most vulnerable, with an overall fatality ratio of about 7.3 percent.

Extrapolating those numbers to China, the team estimates that 1.1 percent of symptomatic cases there turned deadly. Considering asymptomatic cases drops that ratio to about 0.5 percent in China, the team calculates.

These ratios depend on available health care and public health measures, Russell cautions. And there are still uncertainties in the data, he notes. For example, some patients initially counted as asymptomatic may later develop symptoms, or even die. So the true fatality rate may be somewhat higher, “0.6 or 0.7 [percent], but it’s still a good ratio.”

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