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Posted on 3/16/20 at 10:01 am to GreatLakesTiger24
quote:
I’m mocking the people who have been saying that
Damnit, didn’t realize you were a sky screamer
This post was edited on 3/16/20 at 10:02 am
Posted on 3/16/20 at 10:01 am to member12
I agree the Diamond Princess data leads one to believe that the mortality rate is lower than reported and there is no way to test and account for all cases with what is going on. On the other hand, all of those people got proper medical care. What about when we run out of ventilators? We are already close to this in major population centers.
So let’s say it’s just under 1% like diamond princess. If 70 % of America gets infected you are looking at over 2 million deaths. That would be assuming proper care, which people would not get in a business as usual scenario. At least 4 times as people are currently requiring critical care as are dying. It really is a damned if you do, damned if you don’t scenario.
So let’s say it’s just under 1% like diamond princess. If 70 % of America gets infected you are looking at over 2 million deaths. That would be assuming proper care, which people would not get in a business as usual scenario. At least 4 times as people are currently requiring critical care as are dying. It really is a damned if you do, damned if you don’t scenario.
Posted on 3/16/20 at 10:03 am to JohnnyKilroy
quote:depends on the year. Some flu seasons see the fatality rate as high as 0.2%. I think this year has been about 0.14%.
A CFR of 0.5% is 5x more deadly than the seasonal flu
0.1% is the low end for flu.
Posted on 3/16/20 at 10:04 am to hombreman9
quote:
On the other hand, all of those people got proper medical care. What about when we run out of ventilators? We are already close to this in major population centers.
Fair point.
The spread should be much slower in the mainland US given how spread out we are, but running out of ICU capacity for the elderly is a concern. As it is every time we have a bad flu season.
Posted on 3/16/20 at 10:04 am to Norbert
quote:
If the hospitalization rate is 10%
Current data suggests that the hospital rate is nowhere near 10%.
There have been 3800 confirmed cases of corona here. 70 people have died with 12 more listed as "critical." That means 2% of confirmed cases resulted in death or the need for critical care. Obviously, that number goes wayyy down when you consider the number of unconfirmed and untested cases.
Posted on 3/16/20 at 10:07 am to UpToPar
10% is the very high end and doesn’t even include the mild and asymptomatic cases in the denominator. It suffers the same fate as the 3.4% fatality rate being thrown around.
Posted on 3/16/20 at 10:09 am to UpToPar
quote:
There have been 3800 confirmed cases of corona here.
That's an order of magnitude off at least. 80% of the people who catch this won't actually have symptoms. Or their symptoms will be so minor that it did not stop them from going about their lives. Those people will never be tested, and the ones that have recovered already will also never be tested. 65,000-70,000 probably have it in the US now. Which means the mortality rate is MUCH lower than what's reported.
Everything we have is based on shitty data that paints a much bleaker picture of the mortality rate than what the media is spreading.
This post was edited on 3/16/20 at 10:12 am
Posted on 3/16/20 at 10:09 am to UpToPar
quote:
Current data suggests that the hospital rate is nowhere near 10%
Well, the epicenter of the epidemic is in Seattle at evergreenhealth hospital, and they are already barely hanging on. The clinicians there are very concerned about supplies and ability to care for patients, but what do they know? They're probably just being manipulated by phony numbers and leftist propaganda. Two of their physicians are also in the ICU.
Posted on 3/16/20 at 10:12 am to Norbert
That’s what happens with any novel virus. You have clusters that can strain local systems.
Posted on 3/16/20 at 10:13 am to member12
quote:
but running out of ICU capacity for the elderly is a concern
It is not just the elderly. There are currently a LOT of people requiring ICU care under the age of 50 both in the US and Europe
Posted on 3/16/20 at 10:16 am to Norbert
This is what most are not understanding. Sure, if everyone that gets it AND needs to be treated at a hospital AND can be treated properly then the toll isn't as bad as being reported.
Given how easily it is transmitted its very possible that some people who normally would survive, with proper care, will not survive if our resources are overwhelmed all at once.
Given how easily it is transmitted its very possible that some people who normally would survive, with proper care, will not survive if our resources are overwhelmed all at once.
Posted on 3/16/20 at 10:17 am to Norbert
quote:
Well, the epicenter of the epidemic is in Seattle at evergreenhealth hospital, and they are already barely hanging on.
You mean the hospitalization rate for nursing home patients was high?
Posted on 3/16/20 at 10:17 am to Pesticide
quote:
I check mortality rate everyday and it's been dropping almost everyday. Today it's currently at 1.8%. When I first started tracking it, it was around 3.4% I'm extremely optimistic it will continue to drop even more.
It is - and it won't be because America's ICU's are over built compared to other nations (they are - and that's something we should be proud of).
The numbers are going to drop rapidly as more people get tested. This still won't paint an accurate picture as thousands have already had this virus and have dealt with it with OTC drugs - likely spreading it even more in the process.
Unfortunately, there won't be an easy way to determine exactly when community transmissions started outside of China - but I suspect that we'll be able to prove that it happened much earlier than what was reported. Maybe they can test for antibodies for those that went to the doctor for flu like symptoms but tested negative for the flu in December-February.
Posted on 3/16/20 at 10:20 am to member12
quote:
If this turns out to have a mortality rate much lower than SARS, will you all go back to work?
I mean, I'm at work right now. The problem is it spreads much easier than SARS.
quote:
mortality rate of Wuhan Flu closer to 0.5%
That would still be 50x greater than seasonal Flu.
Posted on 3/16/20 at 10:21 am to colorchangintiger
No. Just 5x.
Posted on 3/16/20 at 10:23 am to Norbert
quote:
Well, the epicenter of the epidemic is in Seattle at evergreenhealth hospital, and they are already barely hanging on. The clinicians there are very concerned about supplies and ability to care for patients, but what do they know? They're probably just being manipulated by phony numbers and leftist propaganda. Two of their physicians are also in the ICU.
You listed one hospital in a city that is a hot bed for homeless people. Skewing the data. Again, an outlier.
Posted on 3/16/20 at 10:24 am to PCRammer
quote:
This is what most are not understanding. Sure, if everyone that gets it AND needs to be treated at a hospital AND can be treated properly then the toll isn't as bad as being reported.
Given how easily it is transmitted its very possible that some people who normally would survive, with proper care, will not survive if our resources are overwhelmed all at once.
We have lopsided data quality.
What's occurring is that we are testing the most at-risk and the most serious cases only. We know that 80% of the infected show no symptoms and never get tested or even go to the doctor. So the mortality rate is MUCH lower than what is reported. Right now, the hysteria is based on very bad data on the true magnitude of the number of people infected or recovered combined with very good data on the number of serious cases, critical cases, and deaths.
Viruses with a high mortality rate can't spread this quickly. In lay man's terms - people can't go about their lives an spread viruses that put them on their arse and disrupt their lives.
Coronavirus spreads so quickly because most of the infected show no symptoms at all or very minor symptoms. People don't know that they have it, so they go visit grandma at the retirement community or take the commuter train to work every day like they normally do.
This post was edited on 3/16/20 at 10:25 am
Posted on 3/16/20 at 10:26 am to hombreman9
quote:
There are currently a LOT of people requiring ICU care under the age of 50 both in the US and Europe
When is this not true? When has there not being a lot of people requiring care? The numbers will prove that the majority of people with this, dont require a trip to the ICU.
Posted on 3/16/20 at 10:27 am to hombreman9
quote:link?
It is not just the elderly. There are currently a LOT of people requiring ICU care under the age of 50 both in the US and Europe
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