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re: Study of Diamond Princess Cruise Ship - mortality rate of Wuhan Flu is only 0.5%
Posted on 3/16/20 at 10:27 am to ell_13
Posted on 3/16/20 at 10:27 am to ell_13
seasonal flu is 0.01%
0.01% x 50 = 0.5%
or are you just making a throw back joke to your earlier inability to mentally handle percentages?
0.01% x 50 = 0.5%
or are you just making a throw back joke to your earlier inability to mentally handle percentages?
3
Posted on 3/16/20 at 10:28 am to Tiguar
quote:
seasonal flu is 0.01%
You're starting off with incorrect data. Seasonal flu is .1%. I mean, it's even noted in the article if you'd bother to read it.
This post was edited on 3/16/20 at 10:31 am
Posted on 3/16/20 at 10:31 am to CarRamrod
quote:
It is not just the elderly. There are currently a LOT of people requiring ICU care under the age of 50 both in the US and Europe
I'd like to see some data on this. I'm calling bullshite.
Posted on 3/16/20 at 10:31 am to RB10
reasonable, I was conflating that with the age-range death rate of 19-49, which is infact 0.01%.
worth noting covid 19s is 0.2% which is more than 10x the rate.
people keep talking about how bad this is for the elderly, which it is, but technically covid19 is orders of magnitude more serious for adults <50 than flu is.
worth noting covid 19s is 0.2% which is more than 10x the rate.
people keep talking about how bad this is for the elderly, which it is, but technically covid19 is orders of magnitude more serious for adults <50 than flu is.
This post was edited on 3/16/20 at 10:32 am
Posted on 3/16/20 at 10:32 am to Tiguar
quote:Aren’t you supposed to be a doctor?
seasonal flu is 0.01%
Posted on 3/16/20 at 10:32 am to Tiguar
quote:
but technically covid19 is orders of magnitude more serious for adults <50 than flu is.
Can't wait to see the data set you have to back this up
Posted on 3/16/20 at 10:32 am to Fun Bunch
quote:
EVERYONE PANIC
Looks like the virus spreads very easily and the mortality rate isn't as bad as what's reported.
So I wouldn't panic. I would also bank on anything that was canceled for Coronavirus in March to be back on the docket for April.
Posted on 3/16/20 at 10:33 am to LNCHBOX
quote:
Can't wait to see the data set you have to back this up
He's not wrong. The older you are, the more serious it is.
Sort of like any other bad cold or flu.
Posted on 3/16/20 at 10:33 am to Tiguar
quote:Except it’s not. That graph that keeps getting shared is only using Chinese data from back in mid February. And, again, it doesn’t factor in the mild/asymptomatic cases.
worth noting covid 19s is 0.2% which is more than 10x the rate.
Try again.
Posted on 3/16/20 at 10:33 am to Tiguar
quote:
people keep talking about how bad this is for the elderly, which it is, but technically covid19 is orders of magnitude more serious for adults <50 than flu is.
Covid19 is orders of magnitude more series for adults <50 when only taking into account the worst cases.
You have to keep in mind that the only people being tested are the ones who are already showing serious symptoms. Everyone else is being turned away.
Posted on 3/16/20 at 10:34 am to Tiguar
quote:
worth noting covid 19s is 0.2% which is more than 10x the rate.
It's going to drop even farther for younger people.
Posted on 3/16/20 at 10:36 am to hombreman9
I'm calling this the Wuhan Flu since Chinese media is trying to blame the US for it.
Hopefully I can help that catch on.
Hopefully I can help that catch on.
Posted on 3/16/20 at 10:40 am to Tiguar
quote:
easonable, I was conflating that with the age-range death rate of 19-49, which is infact 0.01%.
worth noting covid 19s is 0.2% which is more than 10x the rate.
Link to this? I've seen reports that one of the 62 US deaths from coronavirus was in that range, a person in their 40s with pre-existing conditions.
Does that mean only 500 people in that age range have contracted the virus? We can assume it's WAY more than that, but is that the number of confirmed cases?
Posted on 3/16/20 at 10:48 am to RB10
quote:
You're starting off with incorrect data. Seasonal flu is .1%. I mean, it's even noted in the article if you'd bother to read it.
Article may be wrong. I've heard 0.01% worldwide from quite a few different medical sources. From CDC on just the US
CDC Burden of Influenza
2016-2017: 29 million cases, 38k deaths = 0.0013%
2015-2016: 24 million cases, 23k deaths = 0.00095%
2014-2015: 30 million cases, 51k deaths = 0.0017%
2013-2014: 30 million cases, 38k deaths = 0.001%
Posted on 3/16/20 at 10:55 am to UpToPar
quote:
You mean the hospitalization rate for nursing home patients was high?
And likely that way because many of the infected people didn't realize they were sick and were transmitting it to other residents or employees.
Posted on 3/16/20 at 10:57 am to colorchangintiger
quote:
2016-2017: 29 million cases, 38k deaths = 0.0013%
2015-2016: 24 million cases, 23k deaths = 0.00095%
2014-2015: 30 million cases, 51k deaths = 0.0017%
2013-2014: 30 million cases, 38k deaths = 0.001%
You're typing out the raw ratio and they tacking on a % symbol.
38k/29mm is .0013, which in % terms is .13%
Posted on 3/16/20 at 11:04 am to hombreman9
quote:
So let’s say it’s just under 1% like diamond princess. If 70 % of America gets infected you are looking at over 2 million deaths. That would be assuming proper care, which people would not get in a business as usual scenario. At least 4 times as people are currently requiring critical care as are dying. It really is a damned if you do, damned if you don’t scenario.
The article says that only 20% of the people all locked in a box together got it.
Posted on 3/16/20 at 11:06 am to GRTiger
Thanks, you're correct.
Posted on 3/16/20 at 11:07 am to colorchangintiger
quote:
Article may be wrong. I've heard 0.01% worldwide from quite a few different medical sources. From CDC on just the US
CDC Burden of Influenza
2016-2017: 29 million cases, 38k deaths = 0.0013%
2015-2016: 24 million cases, 23k deaths = 0.00095%
2014-2015: 30 million cases, 51k deaths = 0.0017%
2013-2014: 30 million cases, 38k deaths = 0.001%
Gotta remember to move the decimals.
This post was edited on 3/16/20 at 11:08 am
Posted on 3/16/20 at 11:09 am to RB10
quote:
Gotta remember to move the decimals.
my brain is running off the rails this morning. 
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