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Started By
Message
re: Storm Update:- Ida Moves Away - The Cleanup Begins...
Posted on 8/27/21 at 10:18 am to Fun Bunch
Posted on 8/27/21 at 10:18 am to Fun Bunch
quote:
don't think that cone is going to tighten much until tomorrow morning which will give people about 24 hours to GTFO. Likely has to cross Cuba before I think they know with any certainty.
I get what you’re saying, but the models are in excellent agreement right now. Just ask the NHC -
quote:
This track will bring the storm across western Cuba later today, over the southeastern and central Gulf of Mexico on Saturday and Saturday night, to the coast of Louisiana by late Sunday. The track guidance is in remarkably good agreement with very little cross-track spread during the first 60 hours or so of the forecast period. After that time, Ida is forecast to reach the western portion of the ridge, which is expected to cause the storm to slow down and turn northward and then northeastward over the southeastern United States. The NHC track forecast is near or just east of the various consensus aids, in best agreement with the GFS ensemble mean. Although the small spread in the guidance through landfall increases the overall confidence in the track forecast, users are reminded to not focus on the exact details of the forecast track as storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts will extend far from the center.
That’s pretty strong talk from the NHC.
1
Posted on 8/27/21 at 10:18 am to Roll Tide Ravens
Ok cause for Laura I thought the western eye wall and side was “worse”. Thanks.
Posted on 8/27/21 at 10:18 am to beaver
quote:
it's really incredible how far tracking has advanced since katrina, this was the cone 3-4 days out
and yet the actual landfall spot is inside that cone of uncertainty you posted (just on the very far western edge... but inside of it)
that's why the NHC tried to get rid of that center line for a bit (until blowback forced them to put it back on)
and that's why all cones of uncertainty come with the warning (if you're inside the cone... you should prepare for storm conditions)
This post was edited on 8/27/21 at 10:20 am
Posted on 8/27/21 at 10:18 am to Paul Allen
Been here since page 5
200 now
200 now
Posted on 8/27/21 at 10:18 am to Zach Lee To Amp Hill
quote:
Stronger storm usually more east, but the models keep inching west
It could be a Cat 69 hurricane, it isn't moving that ridge out of the way. The ridge dictates where this thing will go, it will skirt the western edge of it.
Posted on 8/27/21 at 10:19 am to DVinBR
quote:Hence the big drop in winds from 120 down to 70 by that point. The slow movement while bad for rainfall and overal duration of the storm event, there is a silver lining in that the intense most destructive winds might be kept closer to the coast instead of being swept farther inland. Fast moving strong storms bring much more damaging winds further inland than slow moving ones. In other words if Ida was moving at say 20mph plus and made landfall with 120 winds it likely would bring 100+winds to BR Metro area, where as at the slower speed it looks like the winds sustained winds will be high end tropical storm.
holy shite, the current published cone shows it taking 12 hours to get from the gulf to BR
This post was edited on 8/27/21 at 10:22 am
Posted on 8/27/21 at 10:19 am to beaver
quote:
it's really incredible how far tracking has advanced since katrina, this was the cone 3-4 days out
That’s the 3 day cone.
They still do 3 day cones.
Forecasting and tracking is better but that 3 day Katrina cone doesn’t show anything about that.
The Ida cone is small because the steering pattern is obvious. It wasn’t with Katrina
This post was edited on 8/27/21 at 10:21 am
Posted on 8/27/21 at 10:19 am to CuseTiger
quote:You da man, Cuse.
Airline travel waivers active, about to update the travel board.
Posted on 8/27/21 at 10:19 am to rds dc
My parents live in Kenner. My dad uses a walker. Gets around like shite. My moms been battling cancer for three years. I’m afraid for them. They can’t take the heat but I don’t know how they can leave with pops the way he is.
Posted on 8/27/21 at 10:20 am to stout
quote:
I have shite all over my patio and stuff from remodeling. I'm not even going to bother to secure the crap if I have to leave tomorrow.
frick leaving. Too tired for that shite. I'll send the wife and kid, board up the windows and start drinking... heavily
Posted on 8/27/21 at 10:20 am to hendersonshands
Interesting that the earlier update had it making landfall as a 2 then staying a 2 all the way to White Castle. New update has it making landfall as a 3, but has it as a strong tropical storm in Plaquemine.
Posted on 8/27/21 at 10:20 am to rt3
Come on just go a hundred miles east - there’s a whole landmass it can have
Posted on 8/27/21 at 10:20 am to Zach Lee To Amp Hill
quote:
Stronger storm usually more east
Myth. It doesn't always work like that.
Posted on 8/27/21 at 10:20 am to tigersownall
DO you have friends that can help them there?? God speed and prayers for them.
Posted on 8/27/21 at 10:20 am to otowntiger
quote:
Hence the big drop in winds from 120 down to 70 by that point. The slow movement while bad for rainfall and overal duration of the storm event, there is a silver lining in that the intense most destructive winds might be kept closer to the coast instead of being swept farther inland. Fast moving strong storms bring much more damaging winds further inland than slow moving ones.
Surge will be a freaking bitch for a whole lot of places if this happens, though, won't it?
Posted on 8/27/21 at 10:21 am to slackster
quote:Yeah, for them that means "we have a pretty damn good idea of where this storm is going."
That’s pretty strong talk from the NHC.
Posted on 8/27/21 at 10:21 am to Who_Dat_Tiger
Which app is that?
This post was edited on 8/27/21 at 10:22 am
Posted on 8/27/21 at 10:21 am to LSUfanNkaty
quote:
frick leaving. Too tired for that shite. I'll send the wife and kid, board up the windows and start drinking... heavily
I kind of have the same attitude. Its too much to pack shite and leave.
I will not board windows because I want new ones anyway and don't want to drop the $25K on them. Hell, I might throw bricks through them myself and blame the storm
Posted on 8/27/21 at 10:21 am to GEAUXmedic
quote:
It doesn't always work like that.
Hence usually
Posted on 8/27/21 at 10:21 am to stout
quote:
I have shite all over my patio and stuff from remodeling. I'm not even going to bother to secure the crap if I have to leave tomorrow.
I just put a new patio cover up. Finished this morning. I looks really nice. Can't wait to see what it looks like blown into my neighbors yard.
This post was edited on 8/27/21 at 10:31 am
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