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re: Storm Update:- Ida Moves Away - The Cleanup Begins...

Posted on 8/27/21 at 10:13 am to
Posted by Fun Bunch
New Orleans
Member since May 2008
130218 posts
Posted on 8/27/21 at 10:13 am to
Yeah, but even when that cone was out, Bob Breck here in NOLA said that cone was nonsense, that it was coming for NOLA and would be catastrophic, and to GTFO of dodge, and called the track almost spot on.
Posted by Chad504boy
4 posts
Member since Feb 2005
178861 posts
Posted on 8/27/21 at 10:13 am to
quote:

it's really incredible how far tracking has advanced since katrina, this was the cone 3-4 days out


meteorologist claim that they still nailed the track in the "cone".
Posted by Roll Tide Ravens
Birmingham, AL
Member since Nov 2015
51688 posts
Posted on 8/27/21 at 10:13 am to
quote:

Is it always the northeast that’s the worst or does it depend on the storm?

Which is expected to be the worst quadrant for this one?


For a storm making landfall on the northern Gulf Coast, it is always the northeastern quadrant.

Tropical systems in this hemisphere rotate counter-clockwise, so the quadrant where things are blowing onshore is the worst.

This post was edited on 8/27/21 at 10:18 am
Posted by jimbeam
University of LSU
Member since Oct 2011
75703 posts
Posted on 8/27/21 at 10:14 am to
Windy has it coming directly up Lafayette’s arse
Posted by Scoper
i love hugh freeze
Member since Mar 2021
3356 posts
Posted on 8/27/21 at 10:14 am to
The scary thing for me right now is that as far as the track of 99L and now TS Ida goes the HWRF Was easily the best of the runs to this point. IF it's also correct about intensity well it'd be bad.
Posted by BRgetthenet
Member since Oct 2011
118252 posts
Posted on 8/27/21 at 10:14 am to
Y’all gonna evacuate baw?
Posted by Roll Tide Ravens
Birmingham, AL
Member since Nov 2015
51688 posts
Posted on 8/27/21 at 10:15 am to
quote:

holy shite, the current published cone shows it taking 12 hours to get from the gulf to BR


They slowed it down quite a bit compared to the 4am CDT advisory this morning.
Posted by thejudge
Westlake, LA
Member since Sep 2009
15181 posts
Posted on 8/27/21 at 10:15 am to
quote:

I don't think that cone is going to tighten much until tomorrow morning which will give people about 24 hours to GTFO.


Yep. A lot hotels are only allowing canceling through tonight if you book today as well. Going to be a tough decision. May end up eating 50% waiting to see how far this may go.

If I didn't have small kids and just get out of the hospital with a surprise heart issue I'd stay no problem. GL everyone.
Posted by LSUfanNkaty
LC, Louisiana
Member since Jan 2015
11962 posts
Posted on 8/27/21 at 10:15 am to
quote:

There was an upper level recon mission this morning. That data should be included in the 12z models. The 12z NAM was initialized with a stronger ridge, so that might shift things a bit.


Posted by BOSCEAUX
Where the Down Boys go.
Member since Mar 2008
52392 posts
Posted on 8/27/21 at 10:16 am to
quote:

it always the northeast that’s the worst or does it depend on the storm?

Which is expected to be the worst quadrant for this one?



With a well organized storm the NE quadrant is the strongest. Disorganized storms can vary.
Posted by Oates Mustache
Member since Oct 2011
26623 posts
Posted on 8/27/21 at 10:16 am to
quote:

The 12z NAM was initialized with a stronger ridge, so that might shift things a bit.


Baw, you know that the NAM is pure trash.
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91838 posts
Posted on 8/27/21 at 10:16 am to
quote:

Interdasting that new cone has it weakening all the way to TS over BR



NHC wind probabilities have BR with 21% chance of seeing sustained hurricane force winds. Keep in mind that percentage accounts for the possibility the track shifts. I’d it works out exactly the way they predict, it will be much higher than 21%.

For example, Morgan City only has a 30% chance of hurricane force sustained winds right now on the wind probability.
Posted by WigSplitta22
The Bottom
Member since Apr 2014
2391 posts
Posted on 8/27/21 at 10:16 am to
quote:

Speaking from personal experience



Oh yea I can give them promptly
Posted by keyboard_warrior9
BR
Member since Aug 2018
835 posts
Posted on 8/27/21 at 10:16 am to
HWRF has it as a Cat 2-3 over BR... Its so terrifying its comical at this point
Posted by CuseTiger
Member since Jul 2013
9069 posts
Posted on 8/27/21 at 10:16 am to
Airline travel waivers active, about to update the travel board. Grabbing a cup of coffee then I got a few hours to help people
Posted by Paul Allen
Montauk, NY
Member since Nov 2007
78325 posts
Posted on 8/27/21 at 10:17 am to
You think the storm is moving more east?
Posted by SECbro
Member since Aug 2018
683 posts
Posted on 8/27/21 at 10:17 am to
Page 200

Posted by Zach Lee To Amp Hill
New Orleans
Member since Mar 2016
4954 posts
Posted on 8/27/21 at 10:17 am to
Stronger storm usually more east, but the models keep inching west
Posted by deuce985
Member since Feb 2008
27660 posts
Posted on 8/27/21 at 10:17 am to
Fast it moves through the better because lower impacts obviously so crank that bitch up and go.

Handy tool that has been posted in here if anyone wants to see the projected wind speed estimates for their area. Keep in mind it's fluid based on each forecast.

LINK
Posted by stout
Porte du Lafitte
Member since Sep 2006
182195 posts
Posted on 8/27/21 at 10:18 am to
quote:

There was an upper level recon mission this morning. That data should be included in the 12z models. The 12z NAM was initialized with a stronger ridge, so that might shift things a bit.


I have shite all over my patio and stuff from remodeling. I'm not even going to bother to secure the crap if I have to leave tomorrow.
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