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re: Storm Update:- Ida Moves Away - The Cleanup Begins...
Posted on 8/27/21 at 10:13 am to beaver
Posted on 8/27/21 at 10:13 am to beaver
Yeah, but even when that cone was out, Bob Breck here in NOLA said that cone was nonsense, that it was coming for NOLA and would be catastrophic, and to GTFO of dodge, and called the track almost spot on.
Posted on 8/27/21 at 10:13 am to beaver
quote:
it's really incredible how far tracking has advanced since katrina, this was the cone 3-4 days out
meteorologist claim that they still nailed the track in the "cone".
Posted on 8/27/21 at 10:13 am to tiger91
quote:
Is it always the northeast that’s the worst or does it depend on the storm?
Which is expected to be the worst quadrant for this one?
For a storm making landfall on the northern Gulf Coast, it is always the northeastern quadrant.
Tropical systems in this hemisphere rotate counter-clockwise, so the quadrant where things are blowing onshore is the worst.
This post was edited on 8/27/21 at 10:18 am
Posted on 8/27/21 at 10:14 am to beaver
Windy has it coming directly up Lafayette’s arse
Posted on 8/27/21 at 10:14 am to longhorn22
The scary thing for me right now is that as far as the track of 99L and now TS Ida goes the HWRF Was easily the best of the runs to this point. IF it's also correct about intensity well it'd be bad.
Posted on 8/27/21 at 10:14 am to Chad504boy
Y’all gonna evacuate baw?
Posted on 8/27/21 at 10:15 am to DVinBR
quote:
holy shite, the current published cone shows it taking 12 hours to get from the gulf to BR
They slowed it down quite a bit compared to the 4am CDT advisory this morning.
Posted on 8/27/21 at 10:15 am to Fun Bunch
quote:
I don't think that cone is going to tighten much until tomorrow morning which will give people about 24 hours to GTFO.
Yep. A lot hotels are only allowing canceling through tonight if you book today as well. Going to be a tough decision. May end up eating 50% waiting to see how far this may go.
If I didn't have small kids and just get out of the hospital with a surprise heart issue I'd stay no problem. GL everyone.
Posted on 8/27/21 at 10:15 am to rds dc
quote:
There was an upper level recon mission this morning. That data should be included in the 12z models. The 12z NAM was initialized with a stronger ridge, so that might shift things a bit.

Posted on 8/27/21 at 10:16 am to tiger91
quote:
it always the northeast that’s the worst or does it depend on the storm?
Which is expected to be the worst quadrant for this one?
With a well organized storm the NE quadrant is the strongest. Disorganized storms can vary.
Posted on 8/27/21 at 10:16 am to rds dc
quote:
The 12z NAM was initialized with a stronger ridge, so that might shift things a bit.
Baw, you know that the NAM is pure trash.
Posted on 8/27/21 at 10:16 am to Cosmo
quote:
Interdasting that new cone has it weakening all the way to TS over BR
NHC wind probabilities have BR with 21% chance of seeing sustained hurricane force winds. Keep in mind that percentage accounts for the possibility the track shifts. I’d it works out exactly the way they predict, it will be much higher than 21%.
For example, Morgan City only has a 30% chance of hurricane force sustained winds right now on the wind probability.
Posted on 8/27/21 at 10:16 am to stout
quote:
Speaking from personal experience
Oh yea I can give them promptly
Posted on 8/27/21 at 10:16 am to Scoper
HWRF has it as a Cat 2-3 over BR... Its so terrifying its comical at this point
Posted on 8/27/21 at 10:16 am to Oates Mustache
Airline travel waivers active, about to update the travel board. Grabbing a cup of coffee then I got a few hours to help people
Posted on 8/27/21 at 10:17 am to slackster
You think the storm is moving more east?
Posted on 8/27/21 at 10:17 am to Paul Allen
Stronger storm usually more east, but the models keep inching west
Posted on 8/27/21 at 10:17 am to DVinBR
Fast it moves through the better because lower impacts obviously so crank that bitch up and go.
Handy tool that has been posted in here if anyone wants to see the projected wind speed estimates for their area. Keep in mind it's fluid based on each forecast.
LINK
Handy tool that has been posted in here if anyone wants to see the projected wind speed estimates for their area. Keep in mind it's fluid based on each forecast.
LINK
Posted on 8/27/21 at 10:18 am to LSUfanNkaty
quote:
There was an upper level recon mission this morning. That data should be included in the 12z models. The 12z NAM was initialized with a stronger ridge, so that might shift things a bit.
I have shite all over my patio and stuff from remodeling. I'm not even going to bother to secure the crap if I have to leave tomorrow.
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