re: Storm Tracking: Bertha - It's Over

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Rain has started in Perdido Key

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Tropical Storm Bertha Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026
1000 AM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

Bertha has become slightly better organized this morning. While the
low-level center was fully exposed overnight, new deep convection
has developed this morning and the center has become at least
partially tucked underneath the cold overcast. The Air Force
Hurricane Hunters have been investigating the storm, and they
reported peak 850-mb flight-level winds of 62 kt within the
convection to the southeast of the center, along with layer-averaged
dropsonde winds that support raising the initial intensity to 50 kt.
The central pressure has fallen slightly to 995 mb.

Bertha has deviated north of the forecast track during the past
several hours, and the initial motion is north-northwestward (345/3
kt). The near-term track forecast has been adjusted northward to
account for this development. While Bertha is currently in fairly
weak steering currents, a mid-level ridge centered near the Rockies
is expected to move southeastward during the next couple of days.
This should cause Bertha to turn more west-northwestward and then
westward while it moves near or along the northern Gulf Coast
through midweek. While the track models are overall in good
agreement on this scenario, there are differences in how much land
interaction with southeastern Louisiana will occur, and whether a
new center may redevelop off the coast. Little change was made to
the NHC track forecast beyond 24 h, and once again this forecast
assumes Bertha is able to maintain a cohesive circulation as it
passes near or over the northern Gulf Coast.

Bertha remains an asymmetric tropical storm, with most of the
rainfall and the strongest winds occurring to the south and east of
the center. Strong northeasterly vertical wind shear over Bertha is
forecast to persist today and tonight, which should make it
difficult for Bertha to strengthen much more. Convection is expected
to continue pulsing to the south of Bertha's center during this
time, and the NHC forecast overall shows gradual weakening over the
next few days. The extent of this weakening will depend on how much
land interaction occurs during the next couple of days, and it
remains possible that Bertha could degenerate into a trough even
sooner than forecast due to a disrupted structure within hostile
environmental conditions.

Some notable watch/warning changes were made with this advisory
package. The Tropical Storm Warning was extended eastward across
the Florida Panhandle and westward to the Terrebonne/Lafourche
Parish Line in Louisiana. In addition, the Storm Surge Watch has
been replaced with a Coastal Flood Warning issued by the local
forecast office. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is still
expected to occur between the Mississippi/Alabama Border and the
Mouth of the Mississippi River, with peak values up to 4 ft above
ground level.

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Saved BR's arse though. If she stayed on her track before that jog to the east,

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I'm glad that Bertha is such a small threat that we have to reminisce about old Hurricanes just to feel that rush.

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