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re: So how is this worse than the Swine Flu?

Posted on 3/18/20 at 8:43 am to
Posted by hogminer
Bella Vista, AR.
Member since Apr 2010
10427 posts
Posted on 3/18/20 at 8:43 am to
quote:

Corona appears to be about 50x deadlier by the numbers...

Posted by ldts
Member since Aug 2015
2938 posts
Posted on 3/18/20 at 8:43 am to
quote:

quote:
200,0000 people would have the swine flu by now, and 10,000 deaths (in the US)



How did you get these numbers? Didn’t H1N1 kill 12,500 Americans total? In about a year? How do you get 10,000 US deaths in the first month?


The link below is to some CDC estimates that aren't anywhere near what the post you were responding to was trying to suggest. CDC estimated around 60 million cases with ~12000 deaths.
LINK
Posted by NYNolaguy1
Member since May 2011
21849 posts
Posted on 3/18/20 at 8:46 am to
If you have 1000 people in two rooms, and give all in one room swine flu, and in the other covid, which room has more deaths?

Eta:assume an age and health distribution of everyday america.
This post was edited on 3/18/20 at 8:52 am
Posted by tgrbaitn08
Member since Dec 2007
148031 posts
Posted on 3/18/20 at 8:48 am to
What are the ages and underlying other medical issues?
Posted by Antonio Moss
The South
Member since Mar 2006
49579 posts
Posted on 3/18/20 at 8:48 am to
I've been watching the worldometers website since the getgo, but right now they have only 12 "serious or critical cases" in the US.

No way that is right.
Posted by GRTiger
On a roof eating alligator pie
Member since Dec 2008
71840 posts
Posted on 3/18/20 at 8:50 am to
If they are both groups of 38 year old Americans? The swine flu would dominate.
Posted by NYNolaguy1
Member since May 2011
21849 posts
Posted on 3/18/20 at 8:50 am to
quote:

What are the ages and underlying other medical issues?


Assume an age and health distribution equal to that of everyday america.

48% have cardiovascular issues, 38% are obese, 13% diabetic, etc.
Posted by ashy larry
Marcy Projects
Member since Mar 2010
5582 posts
Posted on 3/18/20 at 8:51 am to
quote:

The Swine Flu pandemic of 2009 was the same strain of flu virus that terrorized the world 100 years ago. It killed close to 1 million people worldwide from 2009-10, infected almost a billion, and very little was made over it.


Tell me. What is the difference in fatality rate & hospitalization rate of H1N1 vs. COVDI-19?

Spoiler alert:










Covid-19 is higher in both categories.
Posted by GurleyGirl
Georgia
Member since Nov 2015
14616 posts
Posted on 3/18/20 at 8:52 am to
There's been 1 death in Georgia so far and zero deaths in a bunch of states: LINK
Posted by Lsupimp
Ersatz Amerika-97.6% phony & fake
Member since Nov 2003
86492 posts
Posted on 3/18/20 at 8:53 am to
quote:

This is complete bullshite. We know a lot about coronaviruses.


The word NOVEL keeps getting ignored. Human immunity to these viruses, which are mutating as viruses do, is unknown. If, as believed, 60 million people got the swine flu in the US and 0.02 % died it it easy to see that this could easily be FAR worse if 100 million people contract it (spreads easier) and 0.5% of those die (higher lethality), right? Particularly because rationing care because of volume will contribute to even higher death rates.

Posted by tgrbaitn08
Member since Dec 2007
148031 posts
Posted on 3/18/20 at 8:53 am to
quote:


Assume an age and health distribution equal to that of everyday america.



Then I’d say Swine Flu would dominate
Posted by PhiTiger1764
Lurker since Aug 2003
Member since Oct 2009
14616 posts
Posted on 3/18/20 at 8:54 am to
From your link, in the US:
116 deaths with 6539 infections.

Math.

1.77% death rate.
Posted by reverendotis
the jawbone of an arse
Member since Nov 2007
4988 posts
Posted on 3/18/20 at 8:54 am to
quote:

You didn’t have Facebook and social media hysteria back then. People are over reacting.


The comparisons to the 1918 Spanish Flu outbreaks usually ignore the overall state of public health in 1918.

In 1917, life expectancy for men was 48.4 years so the claims of "young, healthy 20 & 30 year olds dying from it" need to be tempered by the fact that 24 was middle age.

Add to that, it wasn't until 1933 that it was proven to have been caused by a virus.

quote:

Although the influenza virus that caused the 1918–1919 influenza pandemic was not discovered until the 1930s, the descriptions of the disease and subsequent research has proved it was to blame.[46] The pandemic killed 40–50 million people in less than a year,[47] but the proof that it was caused by a virus was not obtained until 1933


Not really understanding what viruses are much less that they were causing the epidemic at hand is missing a pretty big piece of information.


To your original point, in 1918 Facebook would have LOVED Radithor :

quote:

Radithor was a patent medicine that is a well-known example of radioactive quackery and specifically of excessively broad and pseudoscientific application of the principle of radiation hormesis. It consisted of triple distilled water containing at a minimum 1 microcurie (37 kBq) each of the radium 226 and 228 isotopes.

Radithor was manufactured from 1918 to 1928 by the Bailey Radium Laboratories, Inc., of East Orange, New Jersey. The owner of the company and head of the laboratories was listed as William J. A. Bailey, a dropout from Harvard College, who was not a medical doctor.

It was advertised as "A Cure for the Living Dead" as well as "Perpetual Sunshine". The expensive product was claimed to cure impotence, among other ills
Posted by NYNolaguy1
Member since May 2011
21849 posts
Posted on 3/18/20 at 8:54 am to
quote:

Then I’d say Swine Flu would dominate


Based on what exactly?

The stats dont bear that out.
Posted by tgrbaitn08
Member since Dec 2007
148031 posts
Posted on 3/18/20 at 8:55 am to
quote:



Based on what exactly?


The average age of deaths caused by the swine flu was 41

The average age of every day Americans is 38
This post was edited on 3/18/20 at 8:58 am
Posted by SoFla Tideroller
South Florida
Member since Apr 2010
41877 posts
Posted on 3/18/20 at 8:56 am to
quote:

If you aren't alarmed by the number of cases jumping from the hundreds to 6,515 in one week, I don't know what to tell you


Not alarmed at all. You didn't answer the question, why is this so much worse to warrant giving up our freedom?
Posted by PhiTiger1764
Lurker since Aug 2003
Member since Oct 2009
14616 posts
Posted on 3/18/20 at 8:59 am to
quote:

The average age of deaths caused by the swine flu.

In a room full of 1000 people, using statistical facts, 1/5th of one person would die from swine flu.
Posted by NYNolaguy1
Member since May 2011
21849 posts
Posted on 3/18/20 at 9:00 am to
quote:

The average age of deaths caused by the swine flu.


Thats not how this works.

Average age doesnt indicate quantity of deaths.
Posted by ashy larry
Marcy Projects
Member since Mar 2010
5582 posts
Posted on 3/18/20 at 9:01 am to
quote:

From your link, in the US:
116 deaths with 6539 infections.

Math.

1.77% death rate.



So far... Those numbers are skewed in both directions.

6,539 infections = There are definitely a lot of cases not confirmed and it is safe to assume that many people have had it and recovered without being in that total.

116 deaths = It is also safe to assume, unfortunately, that more people within that 6,539 will not recover therefore pushing that number up.
Posted by BiggerBear
Redbone Country
Member since Sep 2011
3164 posts
Posted on 3/18/20 at 9:02 am to
The doubling rate in Louisiana has been significantly faster than once per week.
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