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re: So how is this worse than the Swine Flu?
Posted on 3/18/20 at 9:04 am to BiggerBear
Posted on 3/18/20 at 9:04 am to BiggerBear
Nationally speaking deaths have been mulitplying by 10 every 14 days, and total cases by 10 every 9 days. Thats has been constant since March 1st.
1
Posted on 3/18/20 at 9:05 am to NYNolaguy1
quote:
Yes, almost half of america does have a heart condition. My comment was directed at the total population of the US. Obviously distribution is going to change risk.
Not saying I don't believe you, but I'm gonna need a link to that set of facts.
There are 350 million people in this country. You're saying close to 175 million people have some type of heart condition.
There are two people in their 50s in my household. Neither of us has a heart condition. Most of my friends and adult family members are 50+. I only know of 1 person (my next door neighbor) who has an actual diagnosed heart condition.
If your assertion was correct, we'd have as many cardiologists as dentists in this country.
Posted on 3/18/20 at 9:06 am to ashy larry
quote:
6,539 infections = There are definitely a lot of cases not confirmed and it is safe to assume that many people have had it and recovered without being in that total.
I too believe many more people have the virus and don’t know due to lack of symptoms and testing... let’s assume 10x the amount of people have it. 65,390. That makes the death rate in America 0.177% which is much better.
By death rate %, this is still 9 times deadlier than swine flu. That is significant.
Posted on 3/18/20 at 9:07 am to GREENHEAD22
With the exception of its virulence and rate of spread, it's not - and it won't be at the end of it.
Posted on 3/18/20 at 9:07 am to NYNolaguy1
quote:
Can you clarify this?
Statistically speaking the exponential rate of deaths has been constant.
Are you talking worldwide or US only?
What i'm saying is, more tests are done, which means there will be more positives. However, the deaths are not proportional to the rise of # of positives.
It is my firm belief that the US # of deaths, will be well below H1N1. The death rate will only be higher, if it is higher, when a cure is found. Reports coming out that flu medicine from Japan is able to reduce the seriousness of those with Wuhan Virus.
Posted on 3/18/20 at 9:07 am to ashy larry
quote:
There are definitely a lot of cases not confirmed and it is safe to assume that many people have had it and recovered without being in that total
Exactly. Many have it and are asymptomatic. There could literally be millions with it right now and not know it. Obviously that would bring the death rate WAY down.
Posted on 3/18/20 at 9:08 am to GRTiger
quote:
The chance of someone with symptomatic Covid-19 dying varied by age, confirming other studies. For those aged 15 to 44, the fatality rate was 0.5%, though it might have been as low as 0.1% or as high as 1.3%. For people 45 to 64, the fatality rate was also 0.5%, with a possible low of 0.2% and a possible high of 1.1%. For those over 64, it was 2.7%, with a low and high estimate of 1.5% and 4.7%.
Posted on 3/18/20 at 9:10 am to NYNolaguy1
Do we know? ( I'm not being obtuse.)
Posted on 3/18/20 at 9:11 am to PhiTiger1764
quote:
I too believe many more people have the virus and don’t know due to lack of symptoms and testing... let’s assume 10x the amount of people have it. 65,390. That makes the death rate in America 0.177% which is much better.
By death rate %, this is still 9 times deadlier than swine flu. That is significant.
Keep in mind that the .177% is deaths "to date". Even if you use that 65,390 number, more of these people will die. The original link showed 6,500 cases, 116 deaths, but only like 100+ recoveries. Meaning that over 6,000 cases are still considered active and the death total isn't representative of what the final death total will be within that group.
Posted on 3/18/20 at 9:13 am to GREENHEAD22
quote:
What makes this so much worse than swine flu
Trump in the WH. Its the reason all of this insanity is happening. Anyone telling you different doesn't deserve oxygen.
Posted on 3/18/20 at 9:13 am to ashy larry
And the only reason the infected number is that low is due to limited testing.
You’re trying to skew the numbers for a higher mortality rate
You’re trying to skew the numbers for a higher mortality rate
Posted on 3/18/20 at 9:16 am to MikeBRLA
quote:
There could literally be millions with it right now and not know it.
There is no reason to believe that the numbers are that high. We can all shite out numbers and say crazy shite like "There could be hundreds of people that died from it and we didn't know about it."
This is why the failure of early testing is fricking us b/c NO ONE has the data needed. Even if the case numbers were higher, maybe the panic would be reduced b/c fatality rate would be lower.
With all that said, 1% is the number we should all assume. Dr. Fauci is saying it's likely 1%. He's smarter than everyone here and has access to more information than anyone else. Anyone spitting out different numbers is purely making up shite.
Posted on 3/18/20 at 9:24 am to ashy larry
quote:
With all that said, 1% is the number we should all assume. Dr. Fauci is saying it's likely 1%. He's smarter than everyone here and has access to more information than anyone else. Anyone spitting out different numbers is purely making up shite.
People will choose to accept whatever information they want in order to support what they already believed to be true. “Millions could have it.”
It is ok to change your mind, people. 5 days ago I was on this site bitching about missing a trip to the Masters and floating the Tom Hanks positive test as a liberal conspiracy. Needless to say, I did not give much of a shite about coronavirus.
I did my own research and formulated my own opinions on the issue. I would suggest everyone else do the same.
Posted on 3/18/20 at 9:24 am to More beer please
quote:
And the only reason the infected number is that low is due to limited testing.
No shite.
quote:
You’re trying to skew the numbers for a higher mortality rate
No. go back a few posts and you'll see that I've said using current numbers of cases and death doesn't allow someone to calculate an accurate mortality rate. Cases are low b/c lack of testing. Deaths are low b/c many cases haven't played out meaning the active cases will result in more deaths.
The only way to get an accurate mortality/death rate is to view cases vs deaths after about something like a month from the beginning of the cases.
Posted on 3/18/20 at 9:30 am to SlowFlowPro
quote:
they already had their corona virus in MERS, bubba
You missed the point slow. I was making light of the fact that the Middle East would have a mass panic if they got something called the swine flu.
Posted on 3/18/20 at 9:46 am to BugAC
quote:
Are you talking worldwide or US only?
I am talking about the US.
quote:
What i'm saying is, more tests are done, which means there will be more positives. However, the deaths are not proportional to the rise of # of positives.
Thats true. If you plot out both the total cases and total deaths on a logarithmic graph you will see they have different slopes, meaning every day they will diverge, assuming exponential rates for both stay constant as they have since March 1st.
Posted on 3/18/20 at 9:48 am to GREENHEAD22
Swine Flu couldn't mutate, wasn't a animal to human transmitted virus that was capable of mutation. It might not be worse, but a bad mutation and we are all toast.
Posted on 3/18/20 at 9:52 am to ashy larry
quote:
116 deaths = It is also safe to assume, unfortunately, that more people within that 6,539 will not recover therefore pushing that number up.
Yes, but based on the paragraph you posted above this one, the denominator will increase at a greater rate than the numerator.
The total number of deaths is what it is, there aren’t a ton of unexplained deaths that won’t be attributed to corona. On the other hand, there is data to suggest that well over 50% of people that contract show no symptoms, at all, and at this point have no reason to have been tested.
The death rate for this thing will be well below 1% when it’s all said and done. It has decreased every day since the first reported case.
This post was edited on 3/18/20 at 10:05 am
Posted on 3/18/20 at 9:53 am to NYNolaguy1
Thank you, but blood vessel disease, while it can affect the heart, is not in and of itself a heart problem.
My gut tells me far more people fall into the blood vessel disease category than the actual heart disease category.
Still a staggering number. I guess my family and friends are pretty fortunate to be so healthy.
My gut tells me far more people fall into the blood vessel disease category than the actual heart disease category.
Still a staggering number. I guess my family and friends are pretty fortunate to be so healthy.
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