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Started By
Message
re: Sally - Moving towards Georgia - Potential for Significant Flooding
Posted on 9/15/20 at 10:01 am to OysterPoBoy
Posted on 9/15/20 at 10:01 am to OysterPoBoy
quote:
I've said it for years. As soon as they let them start moving the cone (around 1998 if I recall correctly) the forecasting really went downhill. No need to be 100% on your track anymore. Just throw something up and correct it later. It's like moving from pen to pencil.
Why would they not change the forecast as updated data comes in?
This has to be a troll.
I'd rather them improve the track as we get closer to landfall, then stick with a bad forecast.
IF anything, maybe they need to go back to 3 day forecasts, because people put waaaay too much faith in a 5 day forecast.
3
Posted on 9/15/20 at 10:02 am to LSUFanHouston
If as much time and money would be spent on predicting the storms direction as there is on theatrics and drama, then we’d get somewhere. I mean if you don’t know that 9’ of water is over your head, then you likely don’t even know how to tune into The Weather Channel.
Posted on 9/15/20 at 10:02 am to OysterPoBoy
quote:
I've said it for years. As soon as they let them start moving the cone (around 1998 if I recall correctly) the forecasting really went downhill. No need to be 100% on your track anymore. Just throw something up and correct it later. It's like moving from pen to pencil.
Need another Nash Robets.
Old school that had to do things the hard way of reading reports and draw it out on the black board. 
Posted on 9/15/20 at 10:02 am to tiger91
DP
This post was edited on 9/15/20 at 10:04 am
Posted on 9/15/20 at 10:03 am to tilco
quote:
Isnt Bear Point where Canal dead ends?
We ate at SOS at the marina Thursday night, cool place. Food was actually very good. Band was mediocre. We used to go to Paradise Island Tiki Bar to listen the bands but the food sucks. Hope both of them do ok.
Posted on 9/15/20 at 10:04 am to MasonTiger
quote:
If as much time and money would be spent on predicting the storms direction as there is on theatrics and drama, then we’d get somewhere. I mean if you don’t know that 9’ of water is over your head, then you likely don’t even know how to tune into The Weather Channel.
You are talking a few million in annual salaries and remote broadcasting costs for private companies (tv stations) vs perhaps billions needed for better forecasting.
Posted on 9/15/20 at 10:05 am to LSUFanHouston
Guvna Meemaw: "Mutha naitcha's wrayyath."
Posted on 9/15/20 at 10:05 am to LSUFanHouston
quote:
IF anything, maybe they need to go back to 3 day forecasts, because people put waaaay too much faith in a 5 day forecast.
This is a testament to how good the NHC has actually been over the past few years.
Posted on 9/15/20 at 10:06 am to LSUFanHouston
Because TWC is nothing but in panic mode most of the time...... they WANT huge storms... keeps viewers watching.
Posted on 9/15/20 at 10:07 am to LSUFanHouston
Anybody found any frying pan-esque streams for Sally yet?
Posted on 9/15/20 at 10:07 am to tilco
Bay St. Louis
Posted on 9/15/20 at 10:08 am to redneck
That thing is going right up Mobile Bay. Is there little chance of any additional intensification?
This post was edited on 9/15/20 at 10:10 am
Posted on 9/15/20 at 10:09 am to redneck
Wow. Redneck where is your/your dads camp?
This post was edited on 9/15/20 at 10:10 am
Posted on 9/15/20 at 10:09 am to Woolfman_8
Are you sure the meters are manual read?
Posted on 9/15/20 at 10:09 am to OysterPoBoy
quote:
I've said it for years. As soon as they let them start moving the cone (around 1998 if I recall correctly) the forecasting really went downhill. No need to be 100% on your track anymore. Just throw something up and correct it later. It's like moving from pen to pencil.
Yes, they need to make a forecast and if all of the factors that determine where the storm will go change, they should stick with the forecast despite the fact that it won’t be accurate anymore.
Posted on 9/15/20 at 10:10 am to BPTiger
Posted on 9/15/20 at 10:11 am to OysterPoBoy
quote:
I've said it for years. As soon as they let them start moving the cone (around 1998 if I recall correctly) the forecasting really went downhill. No need to be 100% on your track anymore. Just throw something up and correct it later. It's like moving from pen to pencil.
Are you contending that it would be better to set an initial forecast and then just leave it? Even if we have a better idea of where it’s going when it gets closer?
Posted on 9/15/20 at 10:11 am to LSUFanHouston
quote:
LSUFanHouston
The limits on forecasting are related to the limits in computing power, lack of data (don't exactly have sounding profiles of the atmosphere over the Pacific Ocean), and the improvements being made in the models also make them more complex and harder to tease out specific issues.
The models are so much better than 10 years ago and they keep improving. Still welcome every $ and effort to make them even better.
Posted on 9/15/20 at 10:12 am to fishfighter
quote:
Need another Nash Robets. Old school that had to do things the hard way of reading reports and draw it out on the black board.
. Fishfighter you are so right.
We would get updates when the Hurricane hunters flew through. Regular forecast at Noon,Six Pm 10Pm and 600Am
None of this Cantore,Siedel,Abrams,TWC histrionics bullshite.
I get my info here and from NOAA Hurricane Center. ( National Hurricane Center)
Posted on 9/15/20 at 10:13 am to tiger91
I'm two streets over from where that pic was taken. One of our neighbors stayed and has been sending me pics of our camp but I am not posting them here for the OT to figure out on google earth 
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