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re: Sally - Moving towards Georgia - Potential for Significant Flooding

Posted on 9/15/20 at 9:07 am to
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36494 posts
Posted on 9/15/20 at 9:07 am to
quote:


Will landfall end up completely outside the cone from just 2 days ago? How often does that happen?


Not often but this is the problem with the cone. It's just a standard deviation of the forecast error for the past five years at a given time.

Weak steering and a developing system make for a lot of additional uncertainty and the cone isn't wide enough to really show the true uncertainty of the track in this case.
Posted by tilco
Spanish Fort, AL
Member since Nov 2013
14473 posts
Posted on 9/15/20 at 9:16 am to
Buddy of mine sent me this from bear point

Posted by McGregor
Member since Feb 2011
7060 posts
Posted on 9/15/20 at 9:17 am to
Is Bear Point in Miss?
Posted by tilco
Spanish Fort, AL
Member since Nov 2013
14473 posts
Posted on 9/15/20 at 9:17 am to
quote:

Is Bear Point in Miss?



Perdido Bay
Posted by Cosmo
glassman's guest house
Member since Oct 2003
131495 posts
Posted on 9/15/20 at 9:18 am to
Tell your buddy to pick his garbage up
Posted by tilco
Spanish Fort, AL
Member since Nov 2013
14473 posts
Posted on 9/15/20 at 9:18 am to
Lol he lives further down canal. Someone sent him that. But yeah. Trashy af.
Posted by roobedoo
hall summit
Member since Jun 2008
1273 posts
Posted on 9/15/20 at 9:18 am to
Hey Cenla,

I have family flying into Pensacola tomorrow and heading to Perdido.

How is it looking now?
Posted by Cosmo
glassman's guest house
Member since Oct 2003
131495 posts
Posted on 9/15/20 at 9:19 am to
quote:

Not often but this is the problem with the cone. It's just a standard deviation of the forecast error for the past five years at a given time.

Weak steering and a developing system make for a lot of additional uncertainty and the cone isn't wide enough to really show the true uncertainty of the track in this case.


Shutup college boy. Bottom line: NHC just as bad as peeej
Posted by McGregor
Member since Feb 2011
7060 posts
Posted on 9/15/20 at 9:20 am to
thanks
Posted by bigpapamac
Mobile, AL
Member since Oct 2007
22592 posts
Posted on 9/15/20 at 9:20 am to
Pensacola’s airport is currently closed. Supposed to resume some operations tomorrow but with landfall pushed back to lunchtime now maybe, I wouldn’t bet on it.
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36494 posts
Posted on 9/15/20 at 9:21 am to
quote:

Shutup college boy.


Degreed now thank you.

Also

Posted by TulaneLSU
Member since Aug 2003
Member since Dec 2007
13634 posts
Posted on 9/15/20 at 9:21 am to
Friend,

We made it to east of Destin. Went through a nasty squall with winds around 50 I’d guess. Had some chocolate snow angels at The Donut Hole. I highly recommend. Deweys at the pass almost certainly will be closed today. I’ll try to shop the sales at Brooks Brothers at the outlets, but last time I was there it was nothing but outlet quality materials.

Storm surge in the pass probably around 3 feet this morning. Still a lot of people out and about. Didn’t see any boarded businesses, as was the case in Pensacola Beach.

Yours,
TulaneLSU
This post was edited on 9/16/20 at 1:35 am
Posted by lsupride87
Member since Dec 2007
111299 posts
Posted on 9/15/20 at 9:25 am to
quote:

Lol he lives further down canal.
Isnt Bear Point where Canal dead ends?
Posted by StringedInstruments
Member since Oct 2013
20868 posts
Posted on 9/15/20 at 9:26 am to
It is amazing to me that we can identify potential life in the clouds of Venus based on some special picture that revealed a particular gas that comes from bacteria who survive without oxygen. But we can’t figure out how to predict long term weather forecasts on our own planet with any degree of certainty.
Posted by tilco
Spanish Fort, AL
Member since Nov 2013
14473 posts
Posted on 9/15/20 at 9:27 am to
quote:

Isnt Bear Point where Canal dead ends?


Yes I meant the other way back towards cosmos my bad.
Posted by tilco
Spanish Fort, AL
Member since Nov 2013
14473 posts
Posted on 9/15/20 at 9:28 am to
quote:

It is amazing to me that we can identify potential life in the clouds of Venus based on some special picture that revealed a particular gas that comes from bacteria who survive without oxygen. But we can’t figure out how to predict long term weather forecasts on our own planet with any degree of certainty.



The latter should tell you more about the former
Posted by white perch
the bright, happy side of hell
Member since Apr 2012
7635 posts
Posted on 9/15/20 at 9:28 am to
How is Slidell fairing, particularly the rigolets and the marinas on hwy 90?
Posted by CBarkleytruth
Member since Dec 2014
1718 posts
Posted on 9/15/20 at 9:31 am to
Friend,

Uhhhhhhhh... can u like, shut up?


Yours,

Butt Head
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36494 posts
Posted on 9/15/20 at 9:32 am to
quote:

Friend,


I'm not your friend, buddy.

quote:

Do you ever wonder if meteorology should be called alchemology? Lot of “let’s see what this computer says and what about that one.” My respect for the field as a science has greatly diminished since I was in middle school. Now, to me at least, it’s more of an entertainment pseudo science.






Expansive windfield this morning with tropical storm force winds almost to the coast. Does have strongest winds right by the core, which may be a sign of a slow strengthening phase beginning this morning. It's moving so slow though, upwelling has got to be limiting the potential of much more strength.

Surge is going to be impressive on this one for a storm of the strength and size it is. Been churning water for a couple of days now and that big wind field is going to drive water in all over the northern gulf coast.
Posted by BRgetthenet
Member since Oct 2011
118250 posts
Posted on 9/15/20 at 9:32 am to
Folks in Northshore estates never had it over the dock.
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