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Started By
Message
re: Sally - Moving towards Georgia - Potential for Significant Flooding
Posted on 9/15/20 at 9:07 am to ScoopAndScore
Posted on 9/15/20 at 9:07 am to ScoopAndScore
quote:
Will landfall end up completely outside the cone from just 2 days ago? How often does that happen?
Not often but this is the problem with the cone. It's just a standard deviation of the forecast error for the past five years at a given time.
Weak steering and a developing system make for a lot of additional uncertainty and the cone isn't wide enough to really show the true uncertainty of the track in this case.
Posted on 9/15/20 at 9:16 am to Duke
Buddy of mine sent me this from bear point


Posted on 9/15/20 at 9:17 am to McGregor
quote:
Is Bear Point in Miss?
Perdido Bay
Posted on 9/15/20 at 9:18 am to tilco
Tell your buddy to pick his garbage up
Posted on 9/15/20 at 9:18 am to Cosmo
Lol he lives further down canal. Someone sent him that. But yeah. Trashy af.
Posted on 9/15/20 at 9:18 am to CENLALSUFAN
Hey Cenla,
I have family flying into Pensacola tomorrow and heading to Perdido.
How is it looking now?
I have family flying into Pensacola tomorrow and heading to Perdido.
How is it looking now?
Posted on 9/15/20 at 9:19 am to Duke
quote:
Not often but this is the problem with the cone. It's just a standard deviation of the forecast error for the past five years at a given time.
Weak steering and a developing system make for a lot of additional uncertainty and the cone isn't wide enough to really show the true uncertainty of the track in this case.
Shutup college boy. Bottom line: NHC just as bad as peeej
Posted on 9/15/20 at 9:20 am to roobedoo
Pensacola’s airport is currently closed. Supposed to resume some operations tomorrow but with landfall pushed back to lunchtime now maybe, I wouldn’t bet on it.
Posted on 9/15/20 at 9:21 am to Cosmo
quote:
Shutup college boy.
Degreed now thank you.
Also
Posted on 9/15/20 at 9:21 am to Duke
Friend,
We made it to east of Destin. Went through a nasty squall with winds around 50 I’d guess. Had some chocolate snow angels at The Donut Hole. I highly recommend. Deweys at the pass almost certainly will be closed today. I’ll try to shop the sales at Brooks Brothers at the outlets, but last time I was there it was nothing but outlet quality materials.
Storm surge in the pass probably around 3 feet this morning. Still a lot of people out and about. Didn’t see any boarded businesses, as was the case in Pensacola Beach.
Yours,
TulaneLSU
We made it to east of Destin. Went through a nasty squall with winds around 50 I’d guess. Had some chocolate snow angels at The Donut Hole. I highly recommend. Deweys at the pass almost certainly will be closed today. I’ll try to shop the sales at Brooks Brothers at the outlets, but last time I was there it was nothing but outlet quality materials.
Storm surge in the pass probably around 3 feet this morning. Still a lot of people out and about. Didn’t see any boarded businesses, as was the case in Pensacola Beach.
Yours,
TulaneLSU
This post was edited on 9/16/20 at 1:35 am
Posted on 9/15/20 at 9:25 am to tilco
quote:Isnt Bear Point where Canal dead ends?
Lol he lives further down canal.
Posted on 9/15/20 at 9:26 am to TulaneLSU
It is amazing to me that we can identify potential life in the clouds of Venus based on some special picture that revealed a particular gas that comes from bacteria who survive without oxygen. But we can’t figure out how to predict long term weather forecasts on our own planet with any degree of certainty.
Posted on 9/15/20 at 9:27 am to lsupride87
quote:
Isnt Bear Point where Canal dead ends?
Yes I meant the other way back towards cosmos my bad.
Posted on 9/15/20 at 9:28 am to StringedInstruments
quote:
It is amazing to me that we can identify potential life in the clouds of Venus based on some special picture that revealed a particular gas that comes from bacteria who survive without oxygen. But we can’t figure out how to predict long term weather forecasts on our own planet with any degree of certainty.
The latter should tell you more about the former
Posted on 9/15/20 at 9:28 am to lsupride87
How is Slidell fairing, particularly the rigolets and the marinas on hwy 90?
Posted on 9/15/20 at 9:31 am to TulaneLSU
Friend,
Uhhhhhhhh... can u like, shut up?
Yours,
Butt Head
Uhhhhhhhh... can u like, shut up?
Yours,
Butt Head
Posted on 9/15/20 at 9:32 am to TulaneLSU
quote:
Friend,
I'm not your friend, buddy.
quote:
Do you ever wonder if meteorology should be called alchemology? Lot of “let’s see what this computer says and what about that one.” My respect for the field as a science has greatly diminished since I was in middle school. Now, to me at least, it’s more of an entertainment pseudo science.
Expansive windfield this morning with tropical storm force winds almost to the coast. Does have strongest winds right by the core, which may be a sign of a slow strengthening phase beginning this morning. It's moving so slow though, upwelling has got to be limiting the potential of much more strength.
Surge is going to be impressive on this one for a storm of the strength and size it is. Been churning water for a couple of days now and that big wind field is going to drive water in all over the northern gulf coast.
Posted on 9/15/20 at 9:32 am to white perch
Folks in Northshore estates never had it over the dock.
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