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Started By
Message
re: Reports of over 20 young camp girls missing In TX floods
Posted on 7/5/25 at 10:48 am to LegendInMyMind
Posted on 7/5/25 at 10:48 am to LegendInMyMind
Mystic is a family. Some of these kids’ great grandmothers went there. Hearing bits and pieces from my daughter’s Mystic counselor group text has been awful, but knowing that group is helping each other in something as simple as a text group comforting each other and standing beside their fellow Mystic family shows the values instilled in them by their real parents and their summer parents at Mystic.
1
Posted on 7/5/25 at 10:49 am to Ghost of Colby
Doppler estimates showing close to 21 inches now in that area.
Posted on 7/5/25 at 10:50 am to SWLA92
quote:
Yep as far as I can tell the NWS gave adequate warnings leading up to the event. This was just a devastating event I’m not sure what could else could have been done.
Extreme rainfall events are particularly hard to forecast in advance. Harvey was one of the few cases where it was a slam dunk to call for an extreme rainfall event, and even then, totals were still way above forecast. WPC highlighted areas of Texas for excessive rainfall but didn't have a High Risk issued.
WPC Forecast right before the event started:
Day 1
Valid 12Z Fri Jul 04 2025 - 12Z Sat Jul 05 2025
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA, NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA, AND CENTRAL TEXAS..
Next forecast issued by WPC:
Day 1
Valid 16Z Fri Jul 04 2025 - 12Z Sat Jul 05 2025
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR WEST-CENTRAL
TEXAS...
...16Z Update...
...Central Texas...
A mesoscale convective system stalled over Central Texas this
morning and dropped 9-12+ inches of rain for some areas over the
past 12 hours, which resulted in catastrophic and deadly flash
flooding.
The only models to capture this event with any kind of lead time were the Canadian and its Hi-Res version.
The GFS and Euro really didn't show anything concerning. The only tip-off was that the remnants of Barry were moving into a plume of very deep rich tropical moisture.
Just a terribly heartbreaking situation that was basically impossible to predict with any kind of lead time. And even then, it would have taken Harvey-like model consensus well in advance for anyone to consider issuing evacuation orders for those camps.
Posted on 7/5/25 at 10:52 am to Mr Sausage
What kind of camp is Mystic camp for those who don’t know anything about it? I take it it’s just for pre-teen to teen girls?
Posted on 7/5/25 at 10:53 am to Chicken
quote:
I believe the area was under Flood warning earlier in the day.
Yes. I believe they were calling for 10 plus inches of rain in the area due to the remnants of that tropical storm.
Posted on 7/5/25 at 10:53 am to sledgehammer
quote:
What kind of camp is Mystic camp for those who don’t know anything about it? I take it it’s just for pre-teen to teen girls?
Pretty much
The group that’s missing is 9/10 year olds, mostly first year campers from what I’ve heard
Posted on 7/5/25 at 10:54 am to Dire Wolf
Is it a Christian church camp?
Posted on 7/5/25 at 10:55 am to sledgehammer
quote:
Is it a Christian church camp?
WTF why does this matter, children are missing!!!
Posted on 7/5/25 at 10:56 am to rds dc
quote:
Just a terribly heartbreaking situation that was basically impossible to predict with any kind of lead time. And even then, it would have taken Harvey-like model consensus well in advance for anyone to consider issuing evacuation orders for those camps.
This is the part that I hope becomes the focal point in the weeks and months ahead. The forecast was as good as it could have been given all the info available. In-process "now-casting" was good and warnings were timely. I just don't know what else, realistically, could have been done.
Throw in that this happend in the early morning hours before daylight, and it was a worst case scenario.
This post was edited on 7/5/25 at 10:56 am
Posted on 7/5/25 at 10:56 am to sledgehammer
All girls Christian based camp with campers ranging from 8-15. My 16 yr old was a counselor in training this summer. The old original camp is directly on the river. The newer camp is adjacent but up higher and on a creek. Next year is the original camp’s 100th anniversary.
Posted on 7/5/25 at 10:57 am to travelgamer
quote:quote:
Is it a Christian church camp?
WTF why does this matter, children are missing!!!
Ease up on the caffeine.
This post was edited on 7/5/25 at 10:57 am
Posted on 7/5/25 at 10:57 am to travelgamer
I’m asking a question because I’m curious about the camp. Chill out.
Posted on 7/5/25 at 11:07 am to LegendInMyMind
quote:
Throw in that this happend in the early morning hours before daylight, and it was a worst case scenario.
This whole situation is beyond tragic.
You’d like to think if you managed a camp on a River you’d have some plan for this but after being close to people from NC and seeing what happened with Helene and Chimney Rock - shite happens with Mother Nature that you can’t foresee.
Good bless everyone in TX dealing with this.
Posted on 7/5/25 at 11:23 am to Stealth Matrix
My wife and I were reading about this last night and it's incredibly sad. We prayed for the families and the posters here that had children there. Any updates on the missing?
Posted on 7/5/25 at 11:24 am to sidewalkside
Can't imagine the confusion and helplessness they felt when the waters hit. A very sad situation.
Posted on 7/5/25 at 11:25 am to Macfly
It is pouring in the Bulverde/Spring Branch area right now. We've lost power 3 times in the last 15 minutes.
ETA: My backyard looks like a river is running through it.
ETAA: Front yard has a river going through it, too. Hail starting to fall as well.
ETA: My backyard looks like a river is running through it.
ETAA: Front yard has a river going through it, too. Hail starting to fall as well.
This post was edited on 7/5/25 at 11:32 am
Posted on 7/5/25 at 11:31 am to TideSaint
I don't know if this one has been posted yet, but man......that was rapid.
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here.Posted on 7/5/25 at 11:33 am to LegendInMyMind
That's insane
Posted on 7/5/25 at 11:36 am to Iron Lion
quote:
My wife and I were reading about this last night and it's incredibly sad. We prayed for the families and the posters here that had children there. Any updates on the missing?
It’s basically a recovery mission now.
From a post on Texags
quote:
My niece sent me this, her friend is a counselor in Bubble Inn and is still missing. If I need to delete, please let me know. Some more clarity on what happened at Mystic What we know from a flat perspective is that the flooding started to hit but it was the middle of the night. Dick was coming down with Edward in cars trying to get campers to a safer spot either the new camp or somewhere else. He was driving back-and-forth and back-and-forth and two cabins made it to sky high and the rest of the camp made it to the new camp. The campers not accounted for were bubble inn and the twins cabins. Dick was driving to bubble in to get the girls and was loading them in his truck when the truck got swept away. Libby Liuzzi was in a twins cabin and they couldn't open the door and so she smashed the windows and we're sending her girls out to get to safety. I know she's OK and half of her cabin is OK. Half of Harrisson Hall is gone. Some girls on the flats went to cozy with the big three and some girls then went to rec Hall because the flooding was increasing, and as it got higher and higher, they went to the second floor of rec hall and they were with the younger campers and the water would hit them while they were on that second floor because of the waves crashing in from the floods. I know the girls in cozy were first holding onto the poles because the flood waters were so intense, but then it got to their heads to the point where they weren't gonna be able to breathe so they had to climb to get to the roof. Elizabeth Sweet took off her shirt at some point and made a rope to get Rachel farhiootie onto the roof. The water was over the roof, but they were just clutching onto the roof the whole time. Cars are piled on top of each other. There was an entire pileup of just so many cars. Christiana said that it looked unreal. From the hill, they saw a car that wasby the art hut and one that was by the bridge. - Meredith Martin, when the flooding hit, went to dick and tweety's house and smashed the window and went and saved Tweety It's now a recovery mission and no longer a rescue mission. "
Posted on 7/5/25 at 11:39 am to LegendInMyMind
Flash Floods are very much like a tsunami in dynamics. Hindsight I'm this story, you have to wonder if discussions took place about the risks of flooding and the camp sites. I'm not judging at all either, I have no clue how I'd react to the NWS forecast, but I'm curious if anyone had those discussions.
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