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re: Question about the Mardi Gras virus spreading

Posted on 3/27/20 at 9:26 pm to
Posted by Finch
Member since Jun 2015
3768 posts
Posted on 3/27/20 at 9:26 pm to
quote:

And the influx of people dying just got pushed off?

Or it only infected people that could beat it first?


People die all the time and it doesn’t make the news

The month or so we lagged isn’t enough time for providers to make an educated correlation.
Posted by Pelican fan99
Lafayette, Louisiana
Member since Jun 2013
39656 posts
Posted on 3/27/20 at 9:30 pm to
Because we didn’t test for shite back then. Not that hard to understand
Posted by Lambdatiger1989
NOLA
Member since Jan 2012
2563 posts
Posted on 3/27/20 at 9:30 pm to
Interesting take. What if that was the case. Younger Mardi Gras attendees infected first , recovered but then trickled down into the older population. Plausible?
Posted by Pelican fan99
Lafayette, Louisiana
Member since Jun 2013
39656 posts
Posted on 3/27/20 at 9:34 pm to
quote:

add Nola’s filth to equation and it’s not far from a Wuhan wet market.
not even close to the same thing
Posted by Volvagia
Fort Worth
Member since Mar 2006
53610 posts
Posted on 3/27/20 at 9:39 pm to
Why stop there?

Blame the tandem float deaths on feverish delirium from corona.
Posted by TigerstuckinMS
Member since Nov 2005
33687 posts
Posted on 3/27/20 at 9:50 pm to
quote:

New Orleans is an international destination city.

More importantly, it's an international PORT city. How many ships from China were docking at New Orleans the whole time those bat eating frickers were hiding this virus from the rest of the world?
Posted by 4cubbies
Member since Sep 2008
62811 posts
Posted on 3/27/20 at 9:52 pm to
quote:



This virus WAS NOT spread primarily due to out of town era being here, ITS BEEN HERE.


Downvoted by people who don’t live here, no doubt.
Posted by TutHillTiger
Mississippi Alabama
Member since Sep 2010
49872 posts
Posted on 3/27/20 at 10:12 pm to
It was here by Christmas.
Posted by Dizz
Member since May 2008
16221 posts
Posted on 3/27/20 at 10:15 pm to
quote:

Younger Mardi Gras attendees infected first , recovered but then trickled down into the older population. Plausible?


Getting infected has nothing to do with age. It didn't infect young people first.
Posted by DownSouthJukin
1x tRant Poster of the Millennium
Member since Jan 2014
31776 posts
Posted on 3/27/20 at 10:17 pm to
Mardi Gras was on 2/25. The first case in New Orleans was discovered on March 9, which is 13 days after Mardi Gras. The incubation period is 14-21 days. We’re 12 days past the longest incubation period, and the increase in cases has only happened in the past few days (and I acknowledge that testing increases logically leads to some of this). Mardi Gras has nothing to do with the increase in cases of the coronavirus in New Orleans. The timeline doesn’t work.

A more likely explanation of the spread and detection of coronavirus in New Orleans and the surrounding areas is the relative density of population compared to other areas and the fact that a large percentage of the population of New Orleans has underlying health problems, are not generally in good health and are not interested in social distancing or proper sanitization.
This post was edited on 3/27/20 at 10:25 pm
Posted by WestSideTiger
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2004
5501 posts
Posted on 3/27/20 at 10:47 pm to
quote:

Mardi Gras was on 2/25

Mardi Gras is a season that’s many weeks long.
quote:

Incubation period is 14-21 days

2-14 days

Recalculate.
Posted by DownSouthJukin
1x tRant Poster of the Millennium
Member since Jan 2014
31776 posts
Posted on 3/27/20 at 10:52 pm to
quote:

Mardi Gras was on 2/25

Mardi Gras is a season that’s many weeks long.
quote:
Incubation period is 14-21 days

2-14 days

Recalculate.


Ok. Mardi Gras SEASON ended on 2/25.

If the incubation period is 2 to 14 days, then it’s even less likely that Mardi Gras had anything to do with the spread of coronavirus in New Orleans because that would put the last incubation date at around the same date the very first infection was found on March 9.

So, by your numbers, we’re 19 days past the last incubation date that would result from Mardi Gras and we’re only now seeing an uptick in cases.

By your timeline the numbers don’t work even more so.
This post was edited on 3/27/20 at 10:56 pm
Posted by Reservoir dawg
Member since Oct 2013
15168 posts
Posted on 3/27/20 at 10:58 pm to
Pathogen was picked up on airliners and distributed worldwide. As it turns out, Mardi Gras was a big incubator because of air travel.
Posted by Weekend Warrior79
Member since Aug 2014
22257 posts
Posted on 3/27/20 at 11:03 pm to
quote:

The first case in New Orleans was discovered on March 9,

First discovered, as in when the first positive test occured. If that's the case, then you would need to go back at least 5 days bc that's how long the original tests were taking.

Also, considering the symptoms, how many people were in ICU w pneumonia that weren't tested for covid-19 bc we didn't have tests for it? Some of those deaths being reported are from them testing people that were already dead, not all are from people actively dying in ICU.
This post was edited on 3/27/20 at 11:04 pm
Posted by dallastigers
Member since Dec 2003
11006 posts
Posted on 3/27/20 at 11:18 pm to
No clue on NO's numbers, but in US there were at least 17 cases with illness onset dates in January that were confirmed later, Almost 600 by end of Feb , and at least over 10,000 now confirmed that either had their illness onset or had their specimen taken for test by or before March 14th.

That's just confirmed cases and just with the CDC updating only 17,849 cases of the now over 100,000 cases for either illness onset date or starting March 24th using date specimen taken from patient when onset date not available. Date specimen taken will probably what a lot of the future updates will end up using as by March 14th they had only updated 970 cases for illness onset date and didn't seem to be moving much faster afterwards until they started to also include specimen date if illness onset date not determinable.

This post was edited on 3/28/20 at 5:20 am
Posted by TSmith
New Orleans, La.
Member since Jan 2004
2357 posts
Posted on 3/27/20 at 11:24 pm to
Judging by TD, NOLA should have had the wisdom to cancel Mardi Gras. During my experience, I should have seen at least one person wearing a face mask during Mardi Gras. Surely, at least one person amongst millions would have heard about this virus. But I didn’t see a single person with PPE.

Some people here feel that MG should have been cancelled. Hindsight is 20/20. Nobody anticipated this. If they did, we would have seen them wearing masks, etc. There were none.

Posted by crewdepoo
Hogwarts
Member since Jan 2015
11131 posts
Posted on 3/27/20 at 11:25 pm to
Mardi Gras flu s gonna make the float deaths disappear
This post was edited on 3/27/20 at 11:40 pm
Posted by Eightballjacket
Member since Jan 2016
8099 posts
Posted on 3/27/20 at 11:26 pm to
It's the curse of Robert E. Lee. It's not that hard.
Posted by TigerNOLAGirl
Baton Rouge
Member since Dec 2019
719 posts
Posted on 3/27/20 at 11:39 pm to
Mardi Gras was Feb 25.
You figure it out.
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