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re: Question about the Mardi Gras virus spreading
Posted on 3/27/20 at 9:26 pm to fightin tigers
Posted on 3/27/20 at 9:26 pm to fightin tigers
quote:
And the influx of people dying just got pushed off?
Or it only infected people that could beat it first?
People die all the time and it doesn’t make the news
The month or so we lagged isn’t enough time for providers to make an educated correlation.
Posted on 3/27/20 at 9:30 pm to Chad504boy
Because we didn’t test for shite back then. Not that hard to understand
Posted on 3/27/20 at 9:30 pm to fightin tigers
Interesting take. What if that was the case. Younger Mardi Gras attendees infected first , recovered but then trickled down into the older population. Plausible?
Posted on 3/27/20 at 9:34 pm to Capt ST
quote:not even close to the same thing
add Nola’s filth to equation and it’s not far from a Wuhan wet market.
Posted on 3/27/20 at 9:39 pm to Chad504boy
Why stop there?
Blame the tandem float deaths on feverish delirium from corona.
Blame the tandem float deaths on feverish delirium from corona.
Posted on 3/27/20 at 9:50 pm to Picayuner
quote:
New Orleans is an international destination city.
More importantly, it's an international PORT city. How many ships from China were docking at New Orleans the whole time those bat eating frickers were hiding this virus from the rest of the world?
Posted on 3/27/20 at 9:52 pm to Chad504boy
quote:
This virus WAS NOT spread primarily due to out of town era being here, ITS BEEN HERE.
Downvoted by people who don’t live here, no doubt.
Posted on 3/27/20 at 10:12 pm to Chad504boy
It was here by Christmas.
Posted on 3/27/20 at 10:15 pm to Lambdatiger1989
quote:
Younger Mardi Gras attendees infected first , recovered but then trickled down into the older population. Plausible?
Getting infected has nothing to do with age. It didn't infect young people first.
Posted on 3/27/20 at 10:17 pm to Chad504boy
Mardi Gras was on 2/25. The first case in New Orleans was discovered on March 9, which is 13 days after Mardi Gras. The incubation period is 14-21 days. We’re 12 days past the longest incubation period, and the increase in cases has only happened in the past few days (and I acknowledge that testing increases logically leads to some of this). Mardi Gras has nothing to do with the increase in cases of the coronavirus in New Orleans. The timeline doesn’t work.
A more likely explanation of the spread and detection of coronavirus in New Orleans and the surrounding areas is the relative density of population compared to other areas and the fact that a large percentage of the population of New Orleans has underlying health problems, are not generally in good health and are not interested in social distancing or proper sanitization.
A more likely explanation of the spread and detection of coronavirus in New Orleans and the surrounding areas is the relative density of population compared to other areas and the fact that a large percentage of the population of New Orleans has underlying health problems, are not generally in good health and are not interested in social distancing or proper sanitization.
This post was edited on 3/27/20 at 10:25 pm
Posted on 3/27/20 at 10:47 pm to DownSouthJukin
quote:
Mardi Gras was on 2/25
Mardi Gras is a season that’s many weeks long.
quote:
Incubation period is 14-21 days
2-14 days
Recalculate.
Posted on 3/27/20 at 10:52 pm to WestSideTiger
quote:
Mardi Gras was on 2/25
Mardi Gras is a season that’s many weeks long.
quote:
Incubation period is 14-21 days
2-14 days
Recalculate.
Ok. Mardi Gras SEASON ended on 2/25.
If the incubation period is 2 to 14 days, then it’s even less likely that Mardi Gras had anything to do with the spread of coronavirus in New Orleans because that would put the last incubation date at around the same date the very first infection was found on March 9.
So, by your numbers, we’re 19 days past the last incubation date that would result from Mardi Gras and we’re only now seeing an uptick in cases.
By your timeline the numbers don’t work even more so.
This post was edited on 3/27/20 at 10:56 pm
Posted on 3/27/20 at 10:58 pm to Chad504boy
Pathogen was picked up on airliners and distributed worldwide. As it turns out, Mardi Gras was a big incubator because of air travel.
Posted on 3/27/20 at 11:03 pm to DownSouthJukin
quote:
The first case in New Orleans was discovered on March 9,
First discovered, as in when the first positive test occured. If that's the case, then you would need to go back at least 5 days bc that's how long the original tests were taking.
Also, considering the symptoms, how many people were in ICU w pneumonia that weren't tested for covid-19 bc we didn't have tests for it? Some of those deaths being reported are from them testing people that were already dead, not all are from people actively dying in ICU.
This post was edited on 3/27/20 at 11:04 pm
Posted on 3/27/20 at 11:18 pm to Chad504boy
No clue on NO's numbers, but in US there were at least 17 cases with illness onset dates in January that were confirmed later, Almost 600 by end of Feb , and at least over 10,000 now confirmed that either had their illness onset or had their specimen taken for test by or before March 14th.
That's just confirmed cases and just with the CDC updating only 17,849 cases of the now over 100,000 cases for either illness onset date or starting March 24th using date specimen taken from patient when onset date not available. Date specimen taken will probably what a lot of the future updates will end up using as by March 14th they had only updated 970 cases for illness onset date and didn't seem to be moving much faster afterwards until they started to also include specimen date if illness onset date not determinable.
That's just confirmed cases and just with the CDC updating only 17,849 cases of the now over 100,000 cases for either illness onset date or starting March 24th using date specimen taken from patient when onset date not available. Date specimen taken will probably what a lot of the future updates will end up using as by March 14th they had only updated 970 cases for illness onset date and didn't seem to be moving much faster afterwards until they started to also include specimen date if illness onset date not determinable.
This post was edited on 3/28/20 at 5:20 am
Posted on 3/27/20 at 11:24 pm to Weekend Warrior79
Judging by TD, NOLA should have had the wisdom to cancel Mardi Gras. During my experience, I should have seen at least one person wearing a face mask during Mardi Gras. Surely, at least one person amongst millions would have heard about this virus. But I didn’t see a single person with PPE.
Some people here feel that MG should have been cancelled. Hindsight is 20/20. Nobody anticipated this. If they did, we would have seen them wearing masks, etc. There were none.
Some people here feel that MG should have been cancelled. Hindsight is 20/20. Nobody anticipated this. If they did, we would have seen them wearing masks, etc. There were none.
Posted on 3/27/20 at 11:25 pm to Chad504boy
Mardi Gras flu s gonna make the float deaths disappear
This post was edited on 3/27/20 at 11:40 pm
Posted on 3/27/20 at 11:26 pm to Chad504boy
It's the curse of Robert E. Lee. It's not that hard.
Posted on 3/27/20 at 11:39 pm to Chad504boy
Mardi Gras was Feb 25.
You figure it out.
You figure it out.
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