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Posted on 5/11/20 at 9:01 am to Sao
quote:
This thread has convinced me drinking and driving isn't all that bad when you think about it. If I'm statistically at risk for dying in a car accident I might as well be shitfaced and take out a few others with me. F it.
You're wayyyy more likely to die on the road than by COVID (unless you are 85 years old and/or 400 pounds).
So let's shut down all public roads in order to save lives.
Posted on 5/11/20 at 9:02 am to whatiknowsofar
quote:
And there would have been much much more if there weren't SAH mandates put into place.
This would be true if people actually stayed home. Grocery stores have been packed throughout the whole ordeal. I don't know how much faster this could spread if everything else was open. Sitting at a restaurant at your table and never moving until you leave unless you go to the restroom is arguably less risky than roaming around a grocery store coming in close contact with hundreds of different people.
I've been in them daily. I either never got it or it was asymptomatic.
This post was edited on 5/11/20 at 9:03 am
Posted on 5/11/20 at 9:06 am to Centinel
quote:
It's what happens when public policy is driven by emotion.
Bingo.
Posted on 5/11/20 at 9:08 am to whatiknowsofar
quote:
I know a few that weren't as lucky.
The US deaths total .014281% of the population, and you know a few of those in that percentage? Seems unlikely
This post was edited on 5/11/20 at 12:22 pm
Posted on 5/11/20 at 9:16 am to Thib-a-doe Tiger
I do know one that died of it. Improbable doesn't mean impossible.
Posted on 5/11/20 at 9:19 am to Volvagia
quote:
Not that I disagree with what you are driving at...but your logic to get there is pretty shitty.
One of the OT COVID commandments right here
This post was edited on 5/11/20 at 9:20 am
Posted on 5/11/20 at 9:21 am to gizmoflak
quote:
over a statistically insignificant amount of people dying.
You realize you can make a valid and compelling argument without sounding like Stalin or Mao right?
ETA
I’m all for opening up and was against the SAH orders from the beginning.
This post was edited on 5/11/20 at 9:25 am
Posted on 5/11/20 at 9:28 am to Oilfieldbiology
quote:
You realize you can make a valid and compelling argument without sounding like Stalin or Mao right?
You realize you are living in a country where the response to a public health crisis is justified by computer models?
Stalin and Mao would be proud
Posted on 5/11/20 at 9:34 am to Volvagia
quote:
Nuh uh. You promised a numerical perspective. Less feelings more numbers.
Stimulus cost (thus far and rounded) = $2,300,000,000,000.
The value of a statistical life yearly, VSLY is given as $369,000.
The US life expectancy is 78.54 years and the average age of COVID death is 79 so in that regard, people with COVID outlive others.
For argument's sake, let us suppose the average age of COVID mortality turns out to be 75. This would mean the disease cost those people 3.5 years of life which is worth (3.5 x 369,000) $1,291,500 per capita.
So in stimulus spending alone, we're at 1,780,874 who have to perish before we'd break even. That is my number.
Posted on 5/11/20 at 9:39 am to whatiknowsofar
Lotta bull shite in this response.
Posted on 5/11/20 at 9:42 am to reverendotis
quote:
Stimulus cost (thus far and rounded) = $2,300,000,000,000.
The value of a statistical life yearly, VSLY is given as $369,000.
The US life expectancy is 78.54 years and the average age of COVID death is 79 so in that regard, people with COVID outlive others.
For argument's sake, let us suppose the average age of COVID mortality turns out to be 75. This would mean the disease cost those people 3.5 years of life which is worth (3.5 x 369,000) $1,291,500 per capita.
So in stimulus spending alone, we're at 1,780,874 who have to perish before we'd break even. That is my number.
Posted on 5/11/20 at 9:47 am to NawlinsTiger9
quote:
Posted on 5/11/20 at 9:51 am to whatiknowsofar
quote:
And there would have been much much more if there weren't SAH mandates put into place.
Nope. The end death total will likely be pretty close to the same. Everyone will eventually get the disease and it will kill the vulnerable. End result has only been delayed, not prevented. Unless you think SAH should remain for 2 years until we get a vaccine or cure.
And nothing really shows that hospitals would have been overwhelmed causing more deaths. Hell hospitals have been damn near empty on verge of bankruptcy
Posted on 5/11/20 at 9:55 am to whatiknowsofar
What if I told you the CDC knew it wouldn't work once 1% of the population was infected based on one of their own documents, from 2007, in regards to influenza pandemics?
Edit to add: There is even a 2019 WHO document that contradicts a lot of the stuff that's been done and is being suggested. Specifically, quarantining of exposed individuals and contact tracing.
Edit to add: There is even a 2019 WHO document that contradicts a lot of the stuff that's been done and is being suggested. Specifically, quarantining of exposed individuals and contact tracing.
This post was edited on 5/11/20 at 10:07 am
Posted on 5/11/20 at 9:55 am to reverendotis
quote:
For argument's sake, let us suppose the average age of COVID mortality turns out to be 75. This would mean the disease cost those people 3.5 years of life which is worth (3.5 x 369,000) $1,291,500 per capita. So in stimulus spending alone, we're at 1,780,874 who have to perish before we'd break even. That is my number.
Fair enough starting point:
That would put
US Population 330,000,000
Estimated R0 = 2.5
Herd immunity at X=(1-1/2.5) or 60% of population or 198,000,000 (cases) actual.
Required iCFR (breakeven) = 1,780,874/198,000,000 = 0.9%
Posted on 5/11/20 at 9:59 am to deltaland
quote:
2 years until we get a vaccine
And, for those keeping score at home, there has yet to ever be a coronavirus vaccine made for human use.
This post was edited on 5/11/20 at 12:12 pm
Posted on 5/11/20 at 10:16 am to Cash
quote:
and 90% of them would have died this year regardless of one of the many other health issues they had.
This is what a lot of people aren't focusing on. Mark my words, when 2020 is in the books and the mortality stats are totaled up and compared to prior years, the excess mortality isn't going to be as great as some people think. I think there will be some excess mortality. Just not as much as you might think. The percentage of Covid deaths that are nursing home residents is staggering.
Posted on 5/11/20 at 10:49 am to Doctor Strangelove
You know Sweden has like a fraction of our population, of which is way less diverse, less aged, and in overall better general health. Compare the average Swede to the average, fat, broke, and stupid American. They’ve got it a little better health wise than we do based on population numbers alone.
The Sweden argument does not apply to the US
The Sweden argument does not apply to the US
Posted on 5/11/20 at 11:56 am to reverendotis
quote:According to this actuarial life table, a 75 year old is expected to live 11 more years. So that bumps the value up 3X, and cuts your death total down 3X. Your number is about 600k dead to "break even".
For argument's sake, let us suppose the average age of COVID mortality turns out to be 75. This would mean the disease cost those people 3.5 years of life which is worth (3.5 x 369,000) $1,291,500 per capita.
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