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Message
re: numerical perspective on the COVID-19 overreaction
Posted on 5/11/20 at 12:02 pm to Thib-a-doe Tiger
Posted on 5/11/20 at 12:02 pm to Thib-a-doe Tiger
quote:There are over 50 billion people in the United States because that’s what your number indicates?
The US deaths total .00014281%
Posted on 5/11/20 at 12:05 pm to Doctor Strangelove
quote:Sweden did more shutting down that people want to think. Also, we have a single city with more people than the entire country of Sweden. And as it happens, if we remove that single city from the US, Sweden's covid deaths per 1M is more than twice the US.
Sweden never closed down their economy and yet their mortality rate is on par with the U.S. and we have tanked a vibrant economy.
Posted on 5/11/20 at 12:07 pm to Korkstand
And Sweden is projected (of course those could be wrong) to have a larger economic contraction than the United States as well.
Posted on 5/11/20 at 12:08 pm to buckeye_vol
quote:
quote:
The US deaths total .00014281%
There are over 50 billion people in the United States because that’s what your number indicates?
you need to go back to like 5th grade math class.
Do me a favor. Divide 47,000/330,000,000 and let me know what you come up with.
The 2 morons who upvoted you are welcome to participate as well
ETA: maybe I'm the moron
This post was edited on 5/11/20 at 12:17 pm
Posted on 5/11/20 at 12:11 pm to Geauxld Finger
quote:
You know Sweden has like a fraction of our population, of which is way less diverse, less aged, and in overall better general health. Compare the average Swede to the average, fat, broke, and stupid American. They’ve got it a little better health wise than we do based on population numbers alone.
The Sweden argument does not apply to the US
Did you know nearly 20 percent of Sweden’s population was born in a nation outside of Sweden, with many of those immigrants coming from counties outside of the EU? And over half of that 20% being immigrants/refugees coming in in the last decade?
Who do you reckon is dying over there in Sweden right now?
This post was edited on 5/11/20 at 1:22 pm
Posted on 5/11/20 at 12:11 pm to gizmoflak
quote:Just so we're on the same page, there have very likely already been well over 1 million covid deaths. There is absolutely no way that the numbers out of China, India, the ME, and Africa are anywhere near accurate.
There have been 283k deaths due to COVID worldwide.
On average, 150k people die every single day of the year worldwide.
By these numbers, COVID has accounted for approx. 0.5% of expected worldwide deaths this year.
Even if the number gets up to 1 million, that still accounts for less than 2% of the total expected deaths.
quote:I do not think we should have shut down at all, but I do think we need to be honest about the numbers.
So we have have wrecked the economy and put countless people in danger of financial ruin, bankruptcy, starvation, job loss, business loss, depression, anxiety, desperation, bad credit, eviction, repossession, default, suicidal thoughts, and lack of social interaction .... over a statistically insignificant amount of people dying.
Posted on 5/11/20 at 12:12 pm to Thib-a-doe Tiger
quote:
you need to go back to like 5th grade math class.
quote:Well first of all we are at 81,009 deaths, but I’ll use your 47,000 to show you what you did wrong.
Do me a favor. Divide 47,000/330,000,000 and let me know what you come up with.
47,000/330,000,000 = 0.000142
0.000142 written as a percentage is 0.0142% since A FIFTH GRADER SHOULD KNOW YIU HAVE TO MOVE THE DECIMAL 2 PLACES TO THE LEFT WHICH YOU FAILED TO DO:
quote:
The US deaths total .00014281%
This post was edited on 5/11/20 at 12:13 pm
Posted on 5/11/20 at 12:13 pm to Thib-a-doe Tiger
quote:frick, man. If you're going to insult someone, you damn sure better make sure you're right. And you are not.
you need to go back to like 5th grade math class.
Do me a favor. Divide 47,000/330,000,000 and let me know what you come up with.
The 2 morons who upvoted you are welcome to participate as well
When you put that % on the end, you need to move the decimal over 2 places.
Posted on 5/11/20 at 12:15 pm to Korkstand
Posted on 5/11/20 at 12:15 pm to deltaland
I'm in the "open it up for healthy young people camp" and have been for a while.
But this isn't true at all:
There are tons of examples of places all over the world with bad outbreaks that overwhelmed hospital systems and negatively impacted people with and wihtout COVID19 in those hospitals.
Lack of vents and PPE is just the start.
However, we did our job to flatten the curve and we can still do so by isolating the vulnerable and the rest of us social distancing and practicing good hygiene in an open economy.
But this isn't true at all:
quote:
And nothing really shows that hospitals would have been overwhelmed causing more deaths.
There are tons of examples of places all over the world with bad outbreaks that overwhelmed hospital systems and negatively impacted people with and wihtout COVID19 in those hospitals.
Lack of vents and PPE is just the start.
However, we did our job to flatten the curve and we can still do so by isolating the vulnerable and the rest of us social distancing and practicing good hygiene in an open economy.
Posted on 5/11/20 at 12:16 pm to whatiknowsofar
quote:
And there would have been much much more if there weren't SAH mandates put into place.
And we'd have a shite load less if positive long term care patients weren't shoved back into facilities that are perfect breeding grounds.
This post was edited on 5/11/20 at 12:17 pm
Posted on 5/11/20 at 12:17 pm to TheCaterpillar
quote:
Lack of vents
Except we found out this was killing people and the wrong treatment.
Posted on 5/11/20 at 12:19 pm to Korkstand
quote:
number is about 600k dead to "break even".
Fair enough.
I would contend that my top line number of $2.3 trillion, which is just the direct stimulus package so far, will be low by a damn stretch if trying to estimate the total cost incurred by society.
Posted on 5/11/20 at 12:20 pm to TheCaterpillar
quote:
There are tons of examples of places all over the world with bad outbreaks that overwhelmed hospital systems and negatively impacted people with and wihtout COVID19 in those hospitals.
Lack of vents and PPE is just the start.
However, we did our job to flatten the curve and we can still do so by isolating the vulnerable and the rest of us social distancing and practicing good hygiene in an open economy.
I agree with all this.
Posted on 5/11/20 at 12:20 pm to buckeye_vol
quote:
81,009
Where are y'all getting these numbers?
quote:
49,867
That is the covid death count as of today according to the cdc.
This post was edited on 5/11/20 at 12:22 pm
Posted on 5/11/20 at 12:21 pm to dgnx6
quote:Worldometer
Where are y'all getting these numbers?
quote:Their data are weeks behind, and states like North Carolina and Connecticut are 2+ months behind in their reporting (for all deaths). There are quite a few steps that results in the delays.
That is the covid death count as of today according to the cdc.
Worldometer pulls directly from the state even county department of health data that are updated at least daily.
This post was edited on 5/11/20 at 12:25 pm
Posted on 5/11/20 at 12:23 pm to buckeye_vol
That's almost double what the CDC is reporting
ETA: saw your edit. makes sense
ETA: saw your edit. makes sense
This post was edited on 5/11/20 at 12:24 pm
Posted on 5/11/20 at 12:25 pm to buckeye_vol
Ok thanks. I did see something about birx saying she can't trust CDC numbers. But it seemed like someone said she said that in a meeting to the guy in charge of the cdc.
This is such a shite show
This is such a shite show
Posted on 5/11/20 at 12:25 pm to dgnx6
quote:That appears to be a misrepresentation (not by you).
I did see something about birx saying she can't trust CDC numbers
Posted on 5/11/20 at 12:28 pm to gizmoflak
quote:
You realize you are living in a country where the response to a public health crisis is justified by computer models?
What is it supposed to be based on?
quote:
Stalin and Mao would be proud
Actually, history has shown that Stalin and Mao would do exactly what many on the board are doing- calculating what an "acceptable" number of human lives would be.
As Stalin said: "one death is a tragedy, a million deaths are a statistic."
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