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re: numerical perspective on the COVID-19 overreaction
Posted on 5/11/20 at 12:28 pm to dgnx6
Posted on 5/11/20 at 12:28 pm to dgnx6
quote:
Except we found out this was killing people and the wrong treatment.
Fair enough, but we didn't know that. And I qualified it with saying that was just the start.
The whole motivation for this was to prevent hospital systems from being overwhelmed. We have several examples of that happening from all over the world and coming from someone who works for a hospital company, I can tell you it is not pretty. Non-COVID patients were impacted just as much. Imagine having a heart attack or getting in a bad car wreck but all the hospitals are bursting at the seams with COVID patients and you can't get a bed.
However, it went on too long. We knew the vulnerable populations in early April and knew the measures needed for the rest of us to not spread (wash hands, social distance, etc.). That's when it should've opened up because the threat of overwhelming hospitals was all but gone.
But they pivoted their motivation for the shutdown somewhere along the way.
0
Posted on 5/11/20 at 12:29 pm to dgnx6
quote:
Ok thanks. I did see something about birx saying she can't trust CDC numbers
I don't think anyone can trust anyone's numbers right now, including mine
Had a few deaths close to me recenlty, patiently awaiting what is reported as cause of death. One of them had a super rare disease and hasn't left her house in months
Posted on 5/11/20 at 12:31 pm to Korkstand
quote:
if we remove that single city from the US, Sweden's covid deaths per 1M is more than twice the US.
On the other side of this coin, wouldn't removing that one city make the essentially coast to coast extended shutdown look even more ridiculous?
Posted on 5/11/20 at 12:54 pm to GRTiger
quote:Goes to show that people can use statistics to make any point. Let's leave NYC in to make Sweden look good to support opening up the US. Then let's take NYC out to make the rest of the US look good to support opening up.
On the other side of this coin, wouldn't removing that one city make the essentially coast to coast extended shutdown look even more ridiculous?
How about let's just take an honest look at the numbers, and support opening up based on the fact that the lives lost are not worth the cost of shutting down?
Posted on 5/11/20 at 1:06 pm to Korkstand
Instead of comparing Sweden to the United States, why don't we compare them to a more similar country, population size-wise?
Like Belgium for example.
I mean, after all, Sweden has twice the population of the other Nordic countries. So, those don't make very apt comparisons.
Nothing like some good, ole cherry-picking!
Like Belgium for example.
I mean, after all, Sweden has twice the population of the other Nordic countries. So, those don't make very apt comparisons.
Nothing like some good, ole cherry-picking!
Posted on 5/11/20 at 1:18 pm to buckeye_vol
quote:
And Sweden is projected (of course those could be wrong) to have a larger economic contraction than the United States
Posted on 5/11/20 at 1:28 pm to Korkstand
quote:
And as it happens, if we remove that single city from the US, Sweden's covid deaths per 1M is more than twice the US.
Conversely, how does that single city compare to Sweden straight up?
Posted on 5/11/20 at 1:32 pm to Sasquatch Smash
quote:Except Belgium is more than 10X as densely populated as Sweden.
Instead of comparing Sweden to the United States, why don't we compare them to a more similar country, population size-wise?
Like Belgium for example.
I mean, after all, Sweden has twice the population of the other Nordic countries. So, those don't make very apt comparisons.
Why don't we pick a region of similar population AND pop density to Sweden, like Arizona?
quote:Yep!
Nothing like some good, ole cherry-picking!
Posted on 5/11/20 at 1:35 pm to gizmoflak
#WeWillGetThroughThisTogether
Posted on 5/11/20 at 1:40 pm to Sasquatch Smash
quote:Considering it is roughly 500X more densely populated, not well.
Conversely, how does that single city compare to Sweden straight up?
Posted on 5/11/20 at 3:16 pm to Korkstand
quote:
Why don't we pick a region of similar population AND pop density to Sweden, like Arizona?
arizona is a tough comparison to anything. if i remember correctly, 1/3 of our deaths came from the navajo reservation and surrounding cities like flagstaff and page, which have large native populations. the navajo/hopi rez itself is one of the least densely populated regions in the state.
we're not reporting nursing home deaths, which makes me wonder if they make up the other 2/3 (or close to it).
Posted on 5/11/20 at 3:28 pm to Geauxld Finger
quote:Sounds like COVID reasonse isn't the only thing we should emulate from Sweden.
They’ve got it a little better health wise than we do based on population numbers alone.
Posted on 5/11/20 at 4:07 pm to Bunsbert Montcroff
quote:So is Sweden. So is any place.
arizona is a tough comparison to anything.
But Sweden is probably best compared to Norway and Finland if you want a rough estimate of the impact of various levels of shutting down. But the people who are most fixated on Sweden are those who want to use that data as a reason to end the shutdown. So they compare it to places that make it look good, rather than to places that make it look bad. It's just a dishonest move any way you slice it.
FWIW, I oppose the shutdown and have from day 1. I just have the opinion that we should be honest about the risks, the impacts of shutting down (both in reduced transmission rates and in the economic cost), and also about the value of a human life. We will never agree on anything until we all decide to be honest about the facts.
Posted on 5/11/20 at 4:22 pm to whatiknowsofar
quote:
And there would have been much much more if there weren't SAH mandates put into place.
The whole idea was to flatten some curve. The assumption was the same number of people would contract the virus,but spread out over time. At no point at any time at any place in this country was our hospitals overrun with Covid19 cases. And it's been shown that the hospital cases aren't saving the people either. So, SAH has been mostly useless
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