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Started By
Message
re: Major Hurricane! Joaquin! Finally Moving Northward and OTS
Posted on 10/1/15 at 10:11 am to catholictigerfan
Posted on 10/1/15 at 10:11 am to catholictigerfan
Newest advisory has it at 125mph winds.
quote:
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Joaquin was
located near latitude 23.0 North, longitude 73.9 West. A turn
toward the northwest and north is expected on Friday, and a faster
motion toward the north is expected Friday night and Saturday. On
the forecast track, the center of Joaquin will move near or over
portions of the central Bahamas today and tonight and pass near or
over portions of the northwestern Bahamas on Friday.
Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 125 mph (205
km/h) with higher gusts. Joaquin is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening
is possible during the next 24 hours, with some fluctuations in
intensity possible Friday night and Saturday.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).
The latest minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is 942 mb (27.82 inches).
This post was edited on 10/1/15 at 10:13 am
2
Posted on 10/1/15 at 10:18 am to GetCocky11
As the trough moves in, it's got more moisture to tap into. Absolutely devastating for the central Bahamas.
Posted on 10/1/15 at 10:22 am to rds dc
It looks like the euro and the gfs are in better agreement, both them keep it primarily off shore maybe clipping cape cod.
This would be best for people on the east coast.
This would be best for people on the east coast.
Posted on 10/1/15 at 10:22 am to GetCocky11
I am glad it is going north... That thing in the GULF would be horrible for wherever it would hit... I hope it drifts out to sea......... The tracking so far looks like that there is a good chance of this happening.
Posted on 10/1/15 at 10:23 am to Duke
Then you got this. This is going to be a shitty weekend in the Carolinas. It won't be a devastating hurricane in the sense of wind and storm surge, but it looks like it will be a large rain event in an area already saturated from the last week of rain.
This post was edited on 10/1/15 at 10:24 am
Posted on 10/1/15 at 10:25 am to dukke v
quote:
I am glad it is going north
Where do you see it going north?
Posted on 10/1/15 at 10:30 am to meauxjeaux2
quote:He is referring to the fact that it isnt going west into the gulf and up our asses.
Where do you see it going north?
Posted on 10/1/15 at 10:31 am to meauxjeaux2
that thing is headed due west
prepare thy anus?
prepare thy anus?
Posted on 10/1/15 at 10:32 am to Fusaichi Pegasus
I am sure Miami is puckering with a major hurricane just sitting there that close.
Posted on 10/1/15 at 10:54 am to bayoudude
So I can probably scratch out going to Nassau on Saturday?
Posted on 10/1/15 at 11:10 am to cajuntiger07
quote:
So I can probably scratch out going to Nassau on Saturday?
Nah, you should be fine.
Posted on 10/1/15 at 11:16 am to meauxjeaux2
It's going W/WSW now but it will turn as the front that cooled us off in Baton Rouge starts to interact. The big question has been will the low associated with the front catch Joaquin and pull it west. The models are coming into agreement that it won't and get pushed out to sea by the High pressures in play.
It's a fricking nightmare to predict, those guys at the NHC are earning their money on this storm.
It's a fricking nightmare to predict, those guys at the NHC are earning their money on this storm.
Posted on 10/1/15 at 11:16 am to catholictigerfan
I always find it kind of strange that even though the coast juts out to the northeast, the vast majority of storms off that coast usually end up curving just a little more to the northeast and avoid hitting anything. (with a few notable exceptions of course).
Posted on 10/1/15 at 11:21 am to Methuselah
I think the polar jet stream, comes into play the further north you get, that is why when storms get further north they typically speed up.
Posted on 10/1/15 at 11:23 am to cajuntiger07
quote:
So I can probably scratch out going to Nassau on Saturday?
Just go to Punta Cana instead.
Posted on 10/1/15 at 11:53 am to SippyCup
quote:
Just go to Punta Cana instead.
Wish I could, Been having this trip planned since last march!
Posted on 10/1/15 at 12:09 pm to cajuntiger07
major hurricanes make aviation forecasting a nightmare. I've been swamped all day today 
Posted on 10/1/15 at 12:15 pm to baytiger
Don't worry, it's headed out to sea now
Posted on 10/1/15 at 12:24 pm to tigerinthebueche
still a lot of uncertainty
our forecast puts it south of Nova Scotia at the same time the NHC has it off Long Island
our forecast puts it south of Nova Scotia at the same time the NHC has it off Long Island
Posted on 10/1/15 at 12:28 pm to tigerinthebueche
quote:
Don't worry, it's headed out to sea now
Where you pulling this from?
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