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re: Major Hurricane! Joaquin! Finally Moving Northward and OTS
Posted on 9/30/15 at 10:02 pm to jdd48
Posted on 9/30/15 at 10:02 pm to jdd48
That has got to be one of the biggest busts the NHC has had in a long time. How far off were they? This is not even close to being in the cone for where it was supposed to be at this time. It is hundreds (close to a thousand? I need a scale) of miles south and west.
This post was edited on 9/30/15 at 10:04 pm
1
Posted on 9/30/15 at 10:06 pm to BigB0882
I hope no one was planning to vacation in Cockburn Town this fall, Cockburn...
Posted on 9/30/15 at 10:08 pm to rds dc
HOLY shite PLEASE COME TO SOUTH CAROLINA
I NEED A HAPPENING
I NEED A HAPPENING
Posted on 9/30/15 at 10:14 pm to rds dc
That track reminds me of Betsy.
Posted on 9/30/15 at 10:17 pm to Duke
quote:
I'm thinking we have a Cat 5 by morning.
That would be wild! The SHIPS RI says there is a chance
** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/01/15 00 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 30.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 2.7
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.8 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.3 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 39.5 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 49.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1
D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 100.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.2
Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 39% is 3.3 times the sample mean(11.9%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 35% is 4.6 times the sample mean( 7.6%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 27% is 5.8 times the sample mean( 4.6%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%)
Posted on 9/30/15 at 10:20 pm to rds dc
I'm flying in to Baltimore next Wednesday and staying through Friday. Am I gonna have a bad time?
Posted on 9/30/15 at 10:30 pm to rds dc
Could be in for an eyewall replacement cycle that would slow it down for a few hours. WV looks better and better to the N and W. The IR looks like its starting to tap that moisture and being to ventilate on all sides.
I'm sure the folks at TWC already have hand cramps from all the reach arounds watching this.
I'm sure the folks at TWC already have hand cramps from all the reach arounds watching this.
Posted on 9/30/15 at 10:32 pm to Duke
Can you put this in non-technical weather terms?
Posted on 9/30/15 at 10:35 pm to Thib-a-doe Tiger
Projected landfall is Monday so everything should be fine by then, as long as there's no major damage. But for people like me who are in Baltimore now... 
This post was edited on 9/30/15 at 10:36 pm
Posted on 9/30/15 at 10:37 pm to TigahJay
Cool, should have all the crack rocks washed off the street by then.
Staying at Mariott Waterfront could be an issue if there's any flooding
Staying at Mariott Waterfront could be an issue if there's any flooding
Posted on 9/30/15 at 10:40 pm to zacata88
It's got nothing but moist air to tap into on both sides. It's been feeding on the Caribbean moisture all day while the northwest moistened up. Watch the area NW of the storm. You'll start seeing storms blowing up and flowing toward the center.
It's got nothing but fuel flowing in basically.
The actual meteorology folks can probably explain better.
It's got nothing but fuel flowing in basically.
The actual meteorology folks can probably explain better.
This post was edited on 9/30/15 at 10:42 pm
Posted on 9/30/15 at 10:44 pm to TheWhizzinator
You'll be on the good side of any hurricane coming into NC.
No fear for the Tri Ad area this time.
No fear for the Tri Ad area this time.
Posted on 9/30/15 at 10:47 pm to East Coast Band
Clown Show... Only off by 15mb!
Posted on 10/1/15 at 2:48 am to rds dc
I don't think I've ever seen a model run quite like our 3Z internals... it actually forecasts it to remain completely stationary for the next 51 hours (that's as far as it goes)
This post was edited on 10/1/15 at 2:48 am
Posted on 10/1/15 at 3:07 am to baytiger
I am psyched for the surf (i like to surf)during this stationary hurricane but there will definitely be some major beach erosion after this hurricane is gone
Posted on 10/1/15 at 4:08 am to rds dc
Posted on 10/1/15 at 4:31 am to Ed Osteen
i live in Hampton, VA. There's definitely going to be major flooding if a hurricane is heading this way. Will upload pic later
Posted on 10/1/15 at 4:35 am to rds dc
quote:
rds dc
What is gonna suck this thing up toward the NE????
Its moving south as of now.... Crazy shite... But looks like a BAD BOY this a.m.
Posted on 10/1/15 at 4:40 am to Gcockboi
quote:
HOLY shite PLEASE COME TO SOUTH CAROLINA
I NEED A HAPPENING
F that. It has been raining for ab 7 days straight now. No more.
Posted on 10/1/15 at 4:41 am to PPBeastMode
quote:
i live in Hampton, VA. There's definitely going to be major flooding if a hurricane is heading this way. Will upload pic later
Yeah we basically have rain starting Wednesday pretty constant every day until this storm hits. Not a good look for us here
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