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re: Major Hurricane! Joaquin! Finally Moving Northward and OTS

Posted on 10/1/15 at 4:44 am to
Posted by Hangover Haven
Metry
Member since Oct 2013
26860 posts
Posted on 10/1/15 at 4:44 am to
quote:

That track reminds me of Betsy.


Thank God that front was coming down huh....
Posted by PPBeastMode
Member since Sep 2010
2400 posts
Posted on 10/1/15 at 4:56 am to
Yup. It was already flooding two days ago...if there's a hurricane....
Posted by Pierre
Baton Rouge
Member since Nov 2005
5290 posts
Posted on 10/1/15 at 6:45 am to
Leaving for Baltimore today leaving late Sunday afternoon. Am I proper fricked?
Posted by Pectus
Internet
Member since Apr 2010
67302 posts
Posted on 10/1/15 at 6:47 am to
This dude is big!
This post was edited on 10/1/15 at 6:48 am
Posted by kjntgr
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2004
8518 posts
Posted on 10/1/15 at 6:51 am to
Have friends in Bahamas. Talked to them this morning. They are getting hit pretty hard and its a slow moving system.
Posted by Pedro
Geaux Hawks
Member since Jul 2008
33795 posts
Posted on 10/1/15 at 7:34 am to
frick a euro.

The pedro-ulm model is running this shite
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
19838 posts
Posted on 10/1/15 at 7:51 am to
quote:


The pedro-ulm model is running this shite


It might need an upgrade

Joaquin is still strengthening this morning

Posted by lsufishnhunt
Member since Jun 2008
1028 posts
Posted on 10/1/15 at 7:56 am to
The SE Bahamas are getting absolutely pounded by a nearly stationary Cat 3 storm that is strengthening. Someone will have 18 hrs of hurricane force winds - no thanks
Posted by GetCocky11
Calgary, AB
Member since Oct 2012
51482 posts
Posted on 10/1/15 at 8:02 am to
Yeah, the Bahamas are going through hell right now. Absolute hell.
Posted by Doosh606
The DC
Member since Apr 2008
3232 posts
Posted on 10/1/15 at 8:08 am to
quote:

eah, the Bahamas are going through hell right now. Absolute hell.


Yeah that's a bad time. I will say the entire city of DC is collectively shitting their pants right now. I'm in a brand new apt building in Alexandria, so I'm ready for this hurricane party
Posted by GetCocky11
Calgary, AB
Member since Oct 2012
51482 posts
Posted on 10/1/15 at 8:10 am to
quote:

Yeah that's a bad time. I will say the entire city of DC is collectively shitting their pants right now. I'm in a brand new apt building in Alexandria, so I'm ready for this hurricane party


Latest projection doesn't look good.

Posted by wickowick
Head of Island
Member since Dec 2006
45841 posts
Posted on 10/1/15 at 8:15 am to
quote:

Yeah that's a bad time. I will say the entire city of DC is collectively shitting their pants right now.


All those old 2 and 3 story colonial homes with slate roofs are not designed for those wind loads. Once those slates start flying off, water is going to pour into those homes flow all the way to the basements.
Posted by VABuckeye
Naples, FL
Member since Dec 2007
35676 posts
Posted on 10/1/15 at 8:30 am to
A direct hit on the Chesapeake Bay area would be a very bad thing for us here. We could get massive flooding in this region.
Posted by Doosh606
The DC
Member since Apr 2008
3232 posts
Posted on 10/1/15 at 8:40 am to
quote:

All those old 2 and 3 story colonial homes with slate roofs are not designed for those wind loads. Once those slates start flying off, water is going to pour into those homes flow all the way to the basements.


Luckily, my building is built like a ton of bricks

Posted by VABuckeye
Naples, FL
Member since Dec 2007
35676 posts
Posted on 10/1/15 at 8:42 am to
If you're anywhere near Old Town Alexandria the flooding will be very bad. That area can't handle a lot of water coming in.
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
19838 posts
Posted on 10/1/15 at 8:44 am to
quote:

the Bahamas are going through hell right now. Absolute hell.


In addition to surge and wind the models are showing the potential for upwards of 30" of rain!
Posted by Doosh606
The DC
Member since Apr 2008
3232 posts
Posted on 10/1/15 at 8:45 am to
quote:

If you're anywhere near Old Town Alexandria the flooding will be very bad. That area can't handle a lot of water coming in.


I am, but pretty far to the northwest, basically at the top of the hill that goes down to the river. We've had some bad storms and it's been fine here so far. I know hurricanes are different, but I'm a solid mile away from the river. If it looks like we're going to get a direct hit I'll probably just go up to my family's place in central PA.
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
19838 posts
Posted on 10/1/15 at 8:54 am to
quote:

I don't think I've ever seen a model run quite like our 3Z internals... it actually forecasts it to remain completely stationary for the next 51 hours (that's as far as it goes)



I don't think it matters too much to the people down there - stationary or slowly grinding through suck equally bad. The extra overnight data seems to be helping the models not named HWRF or GFDL Still a good bit of uncertainty with the final setup. I'm always leary of extreme model solutions and that cutoff over the SE is a crazy anomaly.



This post was edited on 10/1/15 at 8:56 am
Posted by jivy26
Member since Nov 2008
2766 posts
Posted on 10/1/15 at 9:06 am to
quote:

A direct hit on the Chesapeake Bay area would be a very bad thing for us here. We could get massive flooding in this region.


Yeah it is crazy how easily it floods in this city. I fortunately don't live in a flood zone, but it would still make getting around horrible.

If it hits this area I will post pics as shite is going down.
This post was edited on 10/1/15 at 9:07 am
Posted by catholictigerfan
Member since Oct 2009
56330 posts
Posted on 10/1/15 at 10:07 am to
Looks like an eye is starting to form
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