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Started By
Message
re: Louisiana COVID-19 - 3/31/20 12PM CT Update: 5,237 Cases - 38,967 tested - 239 dead
Posted on 3/31/20 at 12:56 pm to baldona
Posted on 3/31/20 at 12:56 pm to baldona
quote:
Why are you guys surprised by the amount of positive tests? Test results are lagging behind 5-7 days, that's not 1200 new positive tests today that's 1200 new positive tests 5-7 days ago. 5-7 days ago was when tests finally became somewhat available, so this really isn't a surprise at all.
Please let me know what number of positive cases I’m allowed to be surprised about. I think everyone is well aware that the numbers are going to continue to increase.
3
Posted on 3/31/20 at 12:56 pm to tigerfan88
quote:
Italy went into lockdown on March 8, at least in the Lombardy region. It’s been almost a month
Lombardy has been going down for a week.
The rest of Italy didn't "lockdown" until the 18th
Posted on 3/31/20 at 1:00 pm to baldona
quote:
Its really about the amount of new hospitalizations and deaths, and deaths will increase for a couple of more days before we hopefully peak.
We are still behind the UW model in hospitalizations, vents, and deaths which could is good.
Posted on 3/31/20 at 1:02 pm to Antonio Moss
Indeed. And the people crowing about how we aren't mirroring Italy is a strange take on their part. If Louisiana were mirroring Italy it would be catastrophic considering Italy is ten times the size of this state. That hospitalizations and people going on vents is slightly increasing is very concerning. This week is pivotal. I hope things can stabilize.
Posted on 3/31/20 at 1:02 pm to PhiTiger1764
quote:
Please let me know what number of positive cases I’m allowed to be surprised about. I think everyone is well aware that the numbers are going to continue to increase.
You realize they aren't even testing most people right? I mean the number of actual people compared to positive test results could be many times great, as in 10 times.
Its very likely if we tested everyone that 1200 cases would actually be 12000 or more. That doesn't surprise me, it shouldn't surprise anyone.
Posted on 3/31/20 at 1:05 pm to Salmon
quote:
Salmon
quote:
I've always read the peak as early April
and if you believe these projections, that is still the case, as our projected peak is next Friday
The source on available beds and ventilators available are inaccurate.
If the Beds Needed statistic is accurate (8,264), then we have the capacity needed right now.
If the Ventilators Needed Statistic is accurate (1,015) then we have the capacity needed right now.
No source. No Mom in law. Believe it. I see the census for all of those numbers and their % of changes daily.
This post was edited on 3/31/20 at 1:07 pm
Posted on 3/31/20 at 1:07 pm to baldona
quote:
Its very likely if we tested everyone that 1200 cases would actually be 12000 or more. That doesn't surprise me, it shouldn't surprise anyone.
You did not answer the original question. What would be a surprising number?
Let’s say tomorrow specifically, based on the amount of people they are testing currently, when the numbers come out at noon, what would be a surprising number? 3,000? 10,000? More? Please be as specific as possible.
Posted on 3/31/20 at 1:07 pm to tgrbaitn08
quote:Thanks, that’s in line with what I am hearing.
yes he was allowed
Posted on 3/31/20 at 1:07 pm to tgrbaitn08
quote:
and my FIL said they are taking grandma out the hospital bringing her back to the nursing home today with Hospice.
The nursing home my Grandpa is at is allowing end of life visits
A family friend is in the same home under hospice care, the family cannot visit since it isn’t end of life but have been told when it gets to that point they can say goodbye
I am so sorry, my heart is breaking for all the people that are facing death alone
Posted on 3/31/20 at 1:08 pm to GFunk
My co worker has been freaking out losing his shite. He finally got his test back, negative. He doesn't believe it, blaming trump for faulty tests.
I honestly believe he felt sick, but worked himself into a frenzy making him more sick, not sleeping, eating, etc.. but it wasn't Covid19.
I honestly believe he felt sick, but worked himself into a frenzy making him more sick, not sleeping, eating, etc.. but it wasn't Covid19.
Posted on 3/31/20 at 1:10 pm to PhiTiger1764
quote:
Please let me know what number of positive cases I’m allowed to be surprised about.
This can easily be flipped around. Everyone posting how shocked they are about the numbers are posting nothing about where they expected them now or tomorrow.
Posted on 3/31/20 at 1:10 pm to PhiTiger1764
quote:
You did not answer the original question. What would be a surprising number?
Let’s say tomorrow specifically, based on the amount of people they are testing currently, when the numbers come out at noon, what would be a surprising number? 3,000? 10,000? More? Please be as specific as possible.
How can I be surprised by a number when the vast majority of people that have the symptoms aren't being tested?
To answer your question, nothing would surprise me. I wouldn't be surprised if 1 million people or more in Louisiana tested positive right now. So 100,000 new positive cases a day in Louisiana wouldn't even phase me. Frankly, I hope that's the case. We'd be getting over this thing with a quickness in that case.
Posted on 3/31/20 at 1:11 pm to lsu13lsu
quote:
This can easily be flipped around. Everyone posting how shocked they are about the numbers are posting nothing about where they expected them now or tomorrow.
Didn’t answer.
Posted on 3/31/20 at 1:12 pm to baldona
quote:
I wouldn't be surprised if 1 million people or more in Louisiana tested positive right now. So 100,000 new positive cases a day in Louisiana wouldn't even phase me.
Thank you for the answer. For what it is worth, if our increase went up by 1 million tomorrow, I would be surprised by this.
Posted on 3/31/20 at 1:15 pm to TigersSEC2010
Are the parish numbers accurate for test quantities? Not sure when they started to be included, but I just noticed them today.
According to today's update Caddo has had more testing done than orleans. WBR with 13 cases including 1 death has had only 17 commercial tests and 0 state tests. I know they may not even have 30,000 people in parish, but it seems low especially with high positive rate for ones done. Livingston has had 136 tests which also seems low.
According to today's update Caddo has had more testing done than orleans. WBR with 13 cases including 1 death has had only 17 commercial tests and 0 state tests. I know they may not even have 30,000 people in parish, but it seems low especially with high positive rate for ones done. Livingston has had 136 tests which also seems low.
Posted on 3/31/20 at 1:17 pm to TigersSEC2010
Could we be saying Sunday showed a lack of testing and Mon/Tues is possibly making up for it?
Making Sunday look better and Mon/Tuesday looking slightly worse?
Doubling timeline still at 4 days.
Making Sunday look better and Mon/Tuesday looking slightly worse?
Doubling timeline still at 4 days.
Posted on 3/31/20 at 1:18 pm to dallastigers
quote:
WBR with 13 cases including 1 death has had only 17 commercial tests and 0 state tests. I know they may not even have 30,000 people in parish, but it seems low especially with high positive rate for ones done. Livingston has had 136 tests which also seems low.
They might be getting tested in EBR?
And Caddo might be testing for a lot of surrounding parishes?
Posted on 3/31/20 at 1:24 pm to madamsquirrel
nope...strictly was going off of Italy's growth rate applied to our numbers at same time period after first case
THIS HAS NO SCIENTIFIC VALIDITY, JUST A CURIOSITY
read this as to why
THIS HAS NO SCIENTIFIC VALIDITY, JUST A CURIOSITY
read this as to why
Posted on 3/31/20 at 1:24 pm to fightin tigers
quote:
Could we be saying Sunday showed a lack of testing and Mon/Tues is possibly making up for it? Making Sunday look better and Mon/Tuesday looking slightly worse? Doubling timeline still at 4 days.
It seems feasible that the various admins are completing all their catch-up data entry during the work day Monday, which is than compiled by the state Monday PM/Tuesday AM for the Tuesday noon release.
Posted on 3/31/20 at 1:39 pm to TigersSEC2010
86+% of the approximately 40,000 Louisianians tested statewide so far have tested negative for Coronavirus. This is with a full week away before the Governor instituted the shelter-at-home instructions and shut down many non-essential businesses.
Of the less than 14% of positive cases who have been tested, just less than 75% are not hospitalized. Out of that 25.8% who are, 1 out of every 10 folks are on ventilators. Current stats show that 50% of those on ventilators resolve and recover.
Meaning less than one person out of every 10 of the 25% of positive cases-which comprise only 14% of everyone tested-is in danger of losing their life.
I am not downplaying what's going on. I am not downplaying the seriousness. I am simply trying to provide some perspective.
Keep washing those hands and stay your arse at home. But relax.
Of the less than 14% of positive cases who have been tested, just less than 75% are not hospitalized. Out of that 25.8% who are, 1 out of every 10 folks are on ventilators. Current stats show that 50% of those on ventilators resolve and recover.
Meaning less than one person out of every 10 of the 25% of positive cases-which comprise only 14% of everyone tested-is in danger of losing their life.
I am not downplaying what's going on. I am not downplaying the seriousness. I am simply trying to provide some perspective.
Keep washing those hands and stay your arse at home. But relax.
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