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re: Let's Find Out How Smart You Baws Are
Posted on 3/22/24 at 1:24 pm to AUstar
Posted on 3/22/24 at 1:24 pm to AUstar
i know the theoretical statistical answer is "always switch", but the real life answer is "nothing changes." you had a 1 in 3 chance before. now you have a 1 in 2 chance by staying or changing. you gain nothing by changing.
it is the same as starting with 2 shells, and picking 1. you gain nothing by switching. the odds remain the same
it is the same as starting with 2 shells, and picking 1. you gain nothing by switching. the odds remain the same
2
Posted on 3/22/24 at 1:46 pm to madmaxvol
Man my head hurts now 
Posted on 3/22/24 at 1:46 pm to piratedude
quote:
i know the theoretical statistical answer is "always switch", but the real life answer is "nothing changes."
The theoretical answer is the real life answer. In both cases you have a 2/3 chance of winning if you switch.
Posted on 3/22/24 at 1:49 pm to AUstar
You should switch your pick, it gives you a tiny increase in probability. My work is that I have seen this before.
Posted on 3/22/24 at 2:40 pm to piratedude
If before you picked, you were given the chance to pick shell A (33%) or both B&C (66%) you would obviously pick B&C because you double your odds. That’s essentially what you’re getting, the opportunity to trade one pick for two.
Posted on 3/22/24 at 2:42 pm to AUstar
You switch shells because the one you picked has a 33% chance of having the cash while the one you didn’t pick has a 50%.
Posted on 3/22/24 at 2:49 pm to AUstar
quote:I would just like to say that the above quote describes me and I would have never solved this problem without reading the answers...
Only baws who scored 30+ on the ACT need apply (1350+ SAT).
Some people math better than others...
Posted on 3/22/24 at 2:50 pm to AUstar
The boy’s mother was a sturgeon.
Posted on 3/22/24 at 3:09 pm to AUstar
You switch. Switching doubles your chances of winning the money. If you switch you have a 2 out of 3 chance instead a 1 out of 3 chance. You go from 33% to 66%.
Posted on 3/22/24 at 5:51 pm to AUstar
The reasoning is you have a 2/3rds chance you picked the wrong shell. So the odds are you picked the wrong shell so switching should theoretically increase your odds after one wrong answer is eliminated. And if you run the scenario 1000 times you will probably win in the neighborhood of 2/3rds of the time by switching.
But after one of the choices is eliminated, there is still a 50% chance it is under either.
It is akin to flipping a coin 10 times. the odds of you flipping heads 10 times in a row is very low. The odds of an individual flip being heads, even the last one after you flipped 9 straight, is still 50%. I also learned that from Marilyn vos Savant in Parade magazine.
But after one of the choices is eliminated, there is still a 50% chance it is under either.
It is akin to flipping a coin 10 times. the odds of you flipping heads 10 times in a row is very low. The odds of an individual flip being heads, even the last one after you flipped 9 straight, is still 50%. I also learned that from Marilyn vos Savant in Parade magazine.
Posted on 3/22/24 at 6:12 pm to AUstar
Change. For reasons I don't understand, that's the correct choice.
Posted on 3/22/24 at 6:31 pm to AUstar
While I do understand the math behind it, I'm of the belief you shouldn't switch.
Yes, 1/3 is less than 2/3.
And yes, the guy has to show you the one that isn't right.
But in the end, it's two choices. If we are going to let the frequency of choice and previous occurences be factored into probability, I must also include the frequency with which my gut first call is correct. Given it is certainly better than 50%, I'm not switching.
In short, smart enough to know better, too dumb to care.
Yes, 1/3 is less than 2/3.
And yes, the guy has to show you the one that isn't right.
But in the end, it's two choices. If we are going to let the frequency of choice and previous occurences be factored into probability, I must also include the frequency with which my gut first call is correct. Given it is certainly better than 50%, I'm not switching.
In short, smart enough to know better, too dumb to care.
Posted on 3/22/24 at 6:34 pm to Ingeniero
quote:
Isn't this just the Monty Hall problem?
Yes.
Posted on 3/22/24 at 7:12 pm to AUstar
This is the Monte Hall problem. Switch.
Posted on 3/22/24 at 7:22 pm to OU812ME2
quote:
Usually it just means they have better organization skills to study.
Naw baw, I didn’t study at all and took it hung over
Posted on 3/22/24 at 8:34 pm to OU812ME2
quote:Didn't study...took it hungover. I was a heathen (still am)
I have to LOL at you thinking that scoring high on a college entrance test means you have a high IQ or better reasoning skills. Usually it just means they have better organization skills to study.
Posted on 3/22/24 at 8:40 pm to AUstar
Thanks Monty Hall
Posted on 3/22/24 at 8:40 pm to North Dallas Tiger
quote:
Didn't study...took it hungover. I was a heathen (still am)
We might be the same person
Posted on 3/22/24 at 9:05 pm to Ingeniero
Well maybe I'm just dumb, but how does switching increase the odds? Switching or staying is the exact same odds, you have zero information to indicate which one is correct.
This seems like some dumb philosophy shite to me.
Eta: actually, I just read up on it. You do have more information. I am dumb.
This seems like some dumb philosophy shite to me.
Eta: actually, I just read up on it. You do have more information. I am dumb.
This post was edited on 3/22/24 at 9:43 pm
Posted on 3/22/24 at 9:18 pm to AUstar
Is this why more kids are scoring higher on their ACT? Has it really been dumbed down to this shite?
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