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Started By
Message
re: Let's Find Out How Smart You Baws Are
Posted on 3/22/24 at 9:10 am to Nutriaitch
Posted on 3/22/24 at 9:10 am to Nutriaitch
quote:
note: I'm not saying those telling me to switch are wrong, I'm asking for an explanation as to how one shell suddenly has a higher percentage chance than the other does.
This is where I went wrong also. Interestingly, the probabilities actually don’t change.
When you made your initial selection (let’s call it A), it had a 1/3 chance of being correct. Which means that combined, B and C had 2/3 chance of being correct.
By revealing C as incorrect, he’s not changing the probabilities, he’s simply giving you new information on how that 2/3 probability is distributed among B and C. Instead of “1/3 and 1/3” like you initially thought, you now know it’s “2/3 and 0/3”.
If it was 50/50 that would be changing the probability of both your remaining selection and your initial one, which can’t be true.
I learned something today
0
Posted on 3/22/24 at 9:12 am to AUstar
The math is in your favor to switch as others have said.
However, in a one time gamble which is what this is, if someone decided to stick with their original choice you would be dumb to call them foolish.
It's a gamble and if you observed 10 people play this game 6 could win by sticking with original choice.
That's the nature of a small sample.
Like flipping 3 straight heads on a coin flip.
However, in a one time gamble which is what this is, if someone decided to stick with their original choice you would be dumb to call them foolish.
It's a gamble and if you observed 10 people play this game 6 could win by sticking with original choice.
That's the nature of a small sample.
Like flipping 3 straight heads on a coin flip.
Posted on 3/22/24 at 9:20 am to AUstar
I’ll just kick your arse and take the tree fiddy. 100% probability
Posted on 3/22/24 at 9:20 am to HattiesburgTiger5439
quote:
You got jackedin NOLA, didnt you. Beta
I know where you got dem shoes
Posted on 3/22/24 at 9:21 am to AUstar
How do I know you’re telling the truth about the $350?
Posted on 3/22/24 at 12:28 pm to Nutriaitch
quote:
why would one of the two have better odds than the other?
the only difference between the two is that one is in my hand and one is on the table.
The probability changes because he reveals one of the cups. This gives you more information.
There is a 1/3 chance of picking correctly. If you pick correctly and switch, you get no money.
There is a 2/3 chance of picking incorrectly. If you pick incorrectly and switch, you always get the money. This is because the dealer always reveals an empty shell, so the remaining shell must contain the money.
So, the probability of getting paid is the same as
the probability of choosing the wrong shell, which is 2/3.
Posted on 3/22/24 at 12:29 pm to AUstar
quote:
Only baws who scored 30+ on the ACT need apply
Posted on 3/22/24 at 12:30 pm to AUstar
We know where you got dem boots.
Posted on 3/22/24 at 12:32 pm to Tiger985
quote:
It's a gamble and if you observed 10 people play this game 6 could win by sticking with original choice.
Yes that could happen, but it isn't likely. There's less than a 6% chance of what you describe happening.
Posted on 3/22/24 at 12:45 pm to AUstar
"Statistics are like a bikini. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital."
-Aaron Levinstein
-Aaron Levinstein
This post was edited on 3/22/24 at 12:46 pm
Posted on 3/22/24 at 12:48 pm to AUstar
Not reading this shite, but I will downvote.
Posted on 3/22/24 at 12:49 pm to AUstar
50/50.
Your first pick had a 33.3% chance of being accurate. Now you know there’s a 50% chance of being accurate.
Future probabilities don’t care what happened last time.
Your first pick had a 33.3% chance of being accurate. Now you know there’s a 50% chance of being accurate.
Future probabilities don’t care what happened last time.
This post was edited on 3/22/24 at 12:51 pm
Posted on 3/22/24 at 12:51 pm to DownshiftAndFloorIt
Posted on 3/22/24 at 12:53 pm to AUstar
quote:
Question: Is there any probability advantage to switching or is it 50/50 between your shell and the other remaining one?
Probably an advantage in not switching. If I had my hand on the shell with no money you probably would not give me the chance to switch. Therefore, I probably have my hand on the tree fiddy.
Posted on 3/22/24 at 12:55 pm to BPTiger
Video is flawed. You can’t assume the car is in a different door each time. Car could be in the same door two out of three.
First guess 33% chance it’s accurate.
Second guess 50% chance it’s accurate.
This is like thinking theirs a higher chance of hitting black on roulette because it’s hit black the last 5 times.
First guess 33% chance it’s accurate.
Second guess 50% chance it’s accurate.
This is like thinking theirs a higher chance of hitting black on roulette because it’s hit black the last 5 times.
Posted on 3/22/24 at 12:59 pm to SquatchDawg
You get to play once. The video shows where the car is in all three scenarios.
You are mathematically wrong.
You have a 33% chance of winning by staying. You have a 66% chance of winning by switching.
You are mathematically wrong.
You have a 33% chance of winning by staying. You have a 66% chance of winning by switching.
This post was edited on 3/22/24 at 1:00 pm
Posted on 3/22/24 at 1:06 pm to BPTiger
I stand corrected. You’re right.
I have no idea why though….something to do with you only getting the first pick right 33% of the time so being able to switch wins 2 out of 3?
I was so confident too.
I have no idea why though….something to do with you only getting the first pick right 33% of the time so being able to switch wins 2 out of 3?
I was so confident too.
Posted on 3/22/24 at 1:13 pm to SquatchDawg
quote:
something to do with you only getting the first pick right 33% of the time so being able to switch wins 2 out of 3?
Exactly. You have a 67% chance of picking wrong, and every time you pick wrong and switch, you get the money.
Posted on 3/22/24 at 1:18 pm to AUstar
quote:
Let's say we're playing the shell game
I'm smart enough not to play the shell game.
Posted on 3/22/24 at 1:21 pm to AUstar
Monty Hall problem. Mythbusters did an episode about it. ALWAYS switch. your odds increase from 1 in 3 to 1 in 2.
The key is that the "host" KNOWS where the money is.
The key is that the "host" KNOWS where the money is.
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