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Posted on 3/22/24 at 10:16 pm to AUstar
(no message)
This post was edited on 3/22/24 at 10:33 pm
Posted on 3/23/24 at 11:13 am to LordSaintly
quote:
There is a 2/3 chance of picking incorrectly. If you pick incorrectly and switch, you always get the money. This is because the dealer always reveals an empty shell, so the remaining shell must contain the money.
So, the probability of getting paid is the same as
the probability of choosing the wrong shell, which is 2/3.
both remaining shells have the exact same 2/3 probability of being wrong.
quote:
This is because the dealer always reveals an empty shell, so the remaining shell must contain the money.
there will ALWAYS be (at least) one shell remaining that is wrong.
the remaining one is not necessarily always right.
Posted on 3/23/24 at 11:23 am to AUstar
Answer: I punch you in the face while you’re holding the shell. Then I proceed to take both shells and run away very quickly
Posted on 3/23/24 at 11:33 am to AUstar
The surgeon was his mother.
Posted on 3/23/24 at 11:33 am to AUstar
Y'all should switch. I'm a phenomenal picker so I always stay.
Posted on 3/23/24 at 11:51 am to AUstar
I've got a better one.
Would you rather take a punch to the throat or a kick to the nuts for this ghey thread?
Would you rather take a punch to the throat or a kick to the nuts for this ghey thread?
Posted on 3/23/24 at 1:08 pm to Nutriaitch
quote:
both remaining shells have the exact same 2/3 probability of being wrong.
At the beginning of the game, yes you have a 2/3 chance of picking wrong. Once the dealer reveals an empty shell and you switch your choice, it becomes an entirely new event with new probabilities.
quote:
there will ALWAYS be (at least) one shell remaining that is wrong. the remaining one is not necessarily always right.
If you choose a wrong shell at the beginning, then you will always switch to the money shell. There’s no other possibility.
As you said, there’s a 2/3 chance of picking a wrong shell at first. This means there’s a 2/3 chance of getting the money if you switch.
Posted on 3/23/24 at 1:09 pm to AUstar
The Monte Hall thing again???
Posted on 3/23/24 at 1:10 pm to AUstar
quote:
You baws who knew it was the Monty Hall Problem impress me. I tried to disguise it, but yes, you are right.
It was not disguised very well. Anyone who’s ever heard of the Monte Hall Problem knew exactly what this was.
Posted on 3/23/24 at 1:14 pm to AUstar
What are you talking about? You're odds increase but it goes from 33% to 50%
The chance to change your hands does not change the odds. Do you want some psychological analysis?
The chance to change your hands does not change the odds. Do you want some psychological analysis?
Posted on 3/23/24 at 1:15 pm to mdomingue
quote:
It is akin to flipping a coin 10 times. the odds of you flipping heads 10 times in a row is very low. The odds of an individual flip being heads, even the last one after you flipped 9 straight, is still 50%. I also learned that from Marilyn vos Savant in Parade magazine.
It’s not like that at all for this problem. If you pick a shell and switch, there’s always a 2/3 chance of winning.
Posted on 3/23/24 at 1:16 pm to Solo Cam
quote:
You're odds increase but it goes from 33% to 50%
33% to 67%
Posted on 3/23/24 at 9:03 pm to LordSaintly
quote:
f you choose a wrong shell at the beginning, then you will always switch to the money shell. There’s no other possibility.
and if you choose the right shell at the beginning, you will always switch to the losing shell.
quote:
As you said, there’s a 2/3 chance of picking a wrong shell at first. This means there’s a 2/3 chance of getting the money if you switch.
there is also a 2/3 chance the one on the table is wrong.
EXACTLY like the one in your hand
Posted on 3/23/24 at 9:11 pm to Ingeniero
66 percent of the time it works 100 percent of the time.
*if you believe in time
*if you believe in time
Posted on 3/23/24 at 10:04 pm to AUstar
quote:
AUstar
What did the the green head mallard duck say to the frog sitting on a telephone line?
Posted on 3/23/24 at 10:59 pm to CocomoLSU
quote:
But the best way he explained it was instead of 3 let's say there are 100 shells. You choose one and then I'll remove 98 empty ones leaving only yours and one shell left. Would you switch then?
This is how the answer was made clear to me as well. If there were 100 shells before me and I picked one, and the host with the knowledge of which shell had the money flipped over 98 empty ones, leaving only my shell and the last one...what are the chances that the shell I originally picked actually has the money? It's not 50%, it's 1%.
Posted on 3/23/24 at 11:09 pm to Nutriaitch
quote:
and if you choose the right shell at the beginning, you will always switch to the losing shell
Yes but that is only 1/3 of the time. The other 2/3 where you chose wrong at first you switch to the money.
quote:
there is also a 2/3 chance the one on the table is wrong.
EXACTLY like the one in your hand
Nope.
Posted on 3/23/24 at 11:58 pm to AUstar
quote:
You baws who knew it was the Monty Hall Problem impress me. I tried to disguise it, but yes, you are right
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