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Started By
Message
Let's Find Out How Smart You Baws Are
Posted on 3/22/24 at 7:25 am
Posted on 3/22/24 at 7:25 am
Only baws who scored 30+ on the ACT need apply (1350+ SAT).
Let's say we're playing the shell game and I have 3 shells on the table. I inform you that one of the shells has $350 dollars under it, while the other two have a worthless marble under them. (Keep in mind, I know what is under each shell).
I ask you to make your selection, but do not allow you to turn it over. You just place your hand on it.
Next, I overturn one of the two remaining shells that I know has a marble under it. This means either the shell you have your hand on or the shell I did not turn over has the tree fiddy under it.
I then ask you if you want to keep your selection or change your pick to the other remaining shell.
Question: Is there any probability advantage to switching or is it 50/50 between your shell and the other remaining one? Explain your answer.
Let's say we're playing the shell game and I have 3 shells on the table. I inform you that one of the shells has $350 dollars under it, while the other two have a worthless marble under them. (Keep in mind, I know what is under each shell).
I ask you to make your selection, but do not allow you to turn it over. You just place your hand on it.
Next, I overturn one of the two remaining shells that I know has a marble under it. This means either the shell you have your hand on or the shell I did not turn over has the tree fiddy under it.
I then ask you if you want to keep your selection or change your pick to the other remaining shell.
Question: Is there any probability advantage to switching or is it 50/50 between your shell and the other remaining one? Explain your answer.
63
Posted on 3/22/24 at 7:27 am to AUstar
You got jackedin NOLA, didnt you. Beta
Posted on 3/22/24 at 7:27 am to AUstar
It’s too early for this shite
Posted on 3/22/24 at 7:27 am to AUstar
Take the switch every time
Posted on 3/22/24 at 7:28 am to AUstar
Isn't this just the Monty Hall problem?
Posted on 3/22/24 at 7:28 am to AUstar
Paging Scott Steiner...
Posted on 3/22/24 at 7:29 am to AUstar
quote:
I then ask you if you want to keep your selection or change your pick to the other remaining shell.
Always change. Statistically, it increases your chances of winning (Monte Hall Scenario)
Posted on 3/22/24 at 7:29 am to AUstar
I, too have seen the movie "21."
Posted on 3/22/24 at 7:30 am to AUstar
You wasted a lot of time typing out a pretty commonly known statistics scenario
Posted on 3/22/24 at 7:32 am to AUstar
You change your pick. There used to be a game show like this. And I used to teach it to my algebra 1 students when we got to probability.
Posted on 3/22/24 at 7:32 am to madmaxvol
quote:
Always change. Statistically, it increases your chances of winning
Explain???
Posted on 3/22/24 at 7:32 am to AUstar
Switching improves your odds from 50% to 66.67%
This is a well known one.
This is a well known one.
Posted on 3/22/24 at 7:33 am to AUstar
I’ll switch and take the extra 33.3%.
Congrats on finally watching “21” and learning the Monty Hall problem.
Congrats on finally watching “21” and learning the Monty Hall problem.
Posted on 3/22/24 at 7:35 am to DownshiftAndFloorIt
quote:
Explain???
Probability tree if you choose door 1 to start:
Essentially, you made your pick when the chances were 1/3. The host removed a wrong answer for you, so now you have the chance to make a pick with more information.
This post was edited on 3/22/24 at 7:37 am
Posted on 3/22/24 at 7:37 am to AUstar
quote:
Question: Is there any probability advantage to switching or is it 50/50 between your shell and the other remaining one? Explain your answer.
No advantage to switching. You didn’t gain any additional information that makes one of the two remaining shells more likely to be correct.
Edit: Or maybe I’m wrong and it’s too early for this
This post was edited on 3/22/24 at 7:39 am
Posted on 3/22/24 at 7:40 am to AUstar
Ah, the age old question that makes it to the OT a dozen times per year, except that it's shells this time.
The mathematical answer is to switch
The mathematical answer is to switch
Posted on 3/22/24 at 7:42 am to AUstar
quote:
Only baws who scored 30+ on the ACT need apply (1350+ SAT).
I scored no where near a 30 and still knew the answer to this lol
Posted on 3/22/24 at 7:44 am to madmaxvol
You baws who knew it was the Monty Hall Problem impress me. I tried to disguise it, but yes, you are right.
Someone sent this problem to Marilyn vos Savant back in the 80's. She had the highest IQ in the world at that time and wrote a "Ask me anything" column for Parade Magazine. A lot of intellectuals hated her because she had a massive IQ but no academic degree (she dropped out).
Anyway, she responded in her column that it is always the best option to switch and gave her reasoning. She got hate mail from PhD mathematicians who said she was wrong and it is 50/50 no matter what.
Finally a team of guys at MIT got together and ran scenarios. They came to the conclusion that Marilyn was right. One of the MIT guys said "I went into it thinking she was wrong, but she is right."
Fun fact: Marilyn is descended from German physicist Ernst Mach (the guy we named speed of sound after).
Someone sent this problem to Marilyn vos Savant back in the 80's. She had the highest IQ in the world at that time and wrote a "Ask me anything" column for Parade Magazine. A lot of intellectuals hated her because she had a massive IQ but no academic degree (she dropped out).
Anyway, she responded in her column that it is always the best option to switch and gave her reasoning. She got hate mail from PhD mathematicians who said she was wrong and it is 50/50 no matter what.
Finally a team of guys at MIT got together and ran scenarios. They came to the conclusion that Marilyn was right. One of the MIT guys said "I went into it thinking she was wrong, but she is right."
Fun fact: Marilyn is descended from German physicist Ernst Mach (the guy we named speed of sound after).
Posted on 3/22/24 at 7:44 am to AUstar
You just watch the movie 21 or something?
Posted on 3/22/24 at 7:44 am to AUstar
Doesn't it increase the odds from 33.3 to 50?
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