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re: Laura - President Trump visits Lake Charles, Louisiana for Hurricane Response Update
Posted on 8/22/20 at 1:32 pm to TDsngumbo
Posted on 8/22/20 at 1:32 pm to TDsngumbo
quote:
Don’t forget that if that verifies, we would see widespread gusts to 150mph near BR
If memory serves BR had gusts to 92 not sustained winds and that was devestating. 100+ sustained would be a total disaster and unprecedented for BR.
3
Posted on 8/22/20 at 1:33 pm to fishfighter
quote:
So, what has happen from this morning to now to change things?
We are getting some stacking of the low and mid level storms. The models have a somewhat real center to model.
It’s why the guidance on open waves and weak systems is so shitty relatively speaking - there isn’t a good place to even start.
Posted on 8/22/20 at 1:34 pm to lsufan4lifeMiles
quote:
Can you fly in on Monday before the storms?
Unfortunately not, have to be in the office Monday-Wednesday. Was going to work remote from the plane Thursday and then take off Friday.
Posted on 8/22/20 at 1:35 pm to slackster
It was nice chatting with all of you from Baton Rouge and New Orleans. At least with Chicken in Houston TD will survive.
Posted on 8/22/20 at 1:36 pm to Paul Allen
GFS Ensembles
Posted on 8/22/20 at 1:36 pm to doubleb
At least in recorded history a hurricane has never brought sustained hurricane force winds to Baton Rouge.
Posted on 8/22/20 at 1:37 pm to slackster
quote:
GFS Ensembles
Not many good options with those two.
Posted on 8/22/20 at 1:38 pm to The Boat
I have been out of the loop for the last few hours. Both of these suckers are forecast to hit South Louisiana now? 
Posted on 8/22/20 at 1:38 pm to doubleb
The thought of one storm coming in and saturating the ground with a lot of rain, and then get followed up any hurricane strength storm is bothersome. Luckily we haven't had very much rain for the last couple of weeks, and the ground is dry.
Posted on 8/22/20 at 1:39 pm to slackster
So, best guess still. The world will keep going around. To dam much wish casting to read thru here. 
To dam much wish casting to read thru here. 
Posted on 8/22/20 at 1:39 pm to slackster
How much would Laura going over the same waters as Marco affect her ability to intensify?
Posted on 8/22/20 at 1:40 pm to The Boat
Yes, although Betsy and Gustav came close I believe that is correct. And believe me because I know, 70mph or so sustained winds are a very big deal.
This post was edited on 8/22/20 at 1:42 pm
Posted on 8/22/20 at 1:42 pm to Byrdybyrd05
quote:
I’m dreading seeing Jay Grymes dressed like this lol
Once the sleeves get rolled up we are screwed
Posted on 8/22/20 at 1:42 pm to LegendInMyMind
Those ensembles make me wonder if we will see more of a shift east over the next few runs and they eventually come to a consensus somewhere closer to MS/AL border. That’s my hope, at least. At least the Euro doesn’t show a strong system, if it agreed with HWRF on landfall and intensity, I’d be running to the store.
Posted on 8/22/20 at 1:42 pm to Duke
quote:
The HMON with a slightly different idea for Laura
The 12z HMON and HWRF both fall within the spread of the 12z GEFSv12
Posted on 8/22/20 at 1:42 pm to biohzrd
quote:
The thought of one storm coming in and saturating the ground with a lot of rain, and then get followed up any hurricane strength storm is bothersome. Luckily we haven't had very much rain for the last couple of weeks, and the ground is dry.
I haven't been so lucky. The last 3 days have been the only rain free days for me in several weeks. There are parts of my yard I still cannot cut.
Posted on 8/22/20 at 1:42 pm to fishfighter
quote:
So, best guess still. The world will keep going around. To dam much wish casting to read thru here.
Not much wish casting, really, just model runs and discussion so far.
Posted on 8/22/20 at 1:43 pm to rds dc
Two direct hits in a row to south LA?
Someone's tired of JBE'S shite
Someone's tired of JBE'S shite
Posted on 8/22/20 at 1:44 pm to Ponchy Tiger
quote:
I haven't been so lucky. The last 3 days have been the only rain free days for me in several weeks. There are parts of my yard I still cannot cut.
If you have big water oaks near your home look out.
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