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Started By
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re: Laura - President Trump visits Lake Charles, Louisiana for Hurricane Response Update
Posted on 8/17/20 at 8:06 pm to jgoodw318
Posted on 8/17/20 at 8:06 pm to jgoodw318
quote:
So I’m not someone who really understands the Euro models and things like that. When is this thing supposed to be hitting? I’m supposed to be flying into Pensacola Wednesday the 26th for a beach trip. Is my trip screwed?
No one can answer that at this point. 97L is still near the Lesser Antilles and 98L (the one that seems like the potentially bigger threat) is even further out. Gonna be a few days before anyone can start really getting an idea of what might happen.
This post was edited on 8/17/20 at 8:08 pm
1
Posted on 8/17/20 at 8:08 pm to treyk89
Who are you
Jayce?
Jayce?
This post was edited on 8/17/20 at 8:08 pm
Posted on 8/17/20 at 8:42 pm to Miketheseventh
quote:
That’s because it didn’t affect the right people. It affected white people in a vacation spot
That's a good try.
Posted on 8/17/20 at 8:43 pm to notiger1997
Has peej dialed in yet/
Posted on 8/17/20 at 8:46 pm to jgoodw318
quote:
How accurate are these things 1-2 weeks out?
Not very accurate. They can somewhat predict that something is headed to the gulf, but don't know much about the path or the CAT. It be what it be.
Best idea is to chill and wait for another four or five days.
Posted on 8/17/20 at 8:54 pm to rds dc
No it's cool, wasn't planning to hold a job down any how for the remainder of the year. Yeah call me up for a couple months of State Active Duty order thoroughly fricking me as I hand off fricking bags of ice and government cheese. Cant wait to retire from the Guard.
Posted on 8/17/20 at 10:47 pm to jgoodw318
quote:just be th ankfuo you’re not going to punta Cana
So I’m not someone who really understands the Euro models and things like that. When is this thing supposed to be hitting? I’m supposed to be flying into Pensacola Wednesday the 26th for a beach trip. Is my trip screwed?
Posted on 8/18/20 at 12:12 am to Roll Tide Ravens
quote:
Also, are you saying they can’t adjust their forecast based on changes in atmospheric conditions, modeling, etc.? They should just continue to roll with an old forecast, even if they know things have changed? The National Hurricane Center doesn’t have a TV channel, so they wouldn’t really be changing the cone “for TV ratings.” This post was edited on 8/17 at 8:04 am
He was ranting about this in another thread and I called him out saying pretty much the same thing you did. He didn’t respond, he’s a troll
Posted on 8/18/20 at 2:46 am to tketaco
quote:
State Active Duty order thoroughly fricking me as I hand off fricking bags of ice and government cheese. Cant wait to retire from the Guard.
Sometimes, that six years in the LANG, that ETS moves like molasses.
Posted on 8/18/20 at 3:19 am to PhillyTiger90
quote:
You’ll probably have a better idea by Thursday
This is the day I leave for a five week trip to South Dakota from South Alabama. I guess I will pick up everything that may blow away. I am not worried about the house itself or flooding.
Posted on 8/18/20 at 6:52 am to Roll Tide Ravens
The euro on 98L really looking like a problem for the Gulf of Mexico. Seeing some divergence in models. Some going more west and some more East with the split around bay at Louis to mobile.
Posted on 8/18/20 at 7:28 am to rds dc
Currently the GFS 06z:
97L becomes a weak tropical cyclone and impacts texas coastline in 8 days. 98L fails to develop due to land mass interaction in the caribbean.
Currently ECMWF 0z:
97L fails to develop. 98L sneaks through the florida strait for a mississippi landfall in 8 days as a low end hurricane.
Currently reality:
Until these two say the same thing, don't trust anything.
97L becomes a weak tropical cyclone and impacts texas coastline in 8 days. 98L fails to develop due to land mass interaction in the caribbean.
Currently ECMWF 0z:
97L fails to develop. 98L sneaks through the florida strait for a mississippi landfall in 8 days as a low end hurricane.
Currently reality:
Until these two say the same thing, don't trust anything.
Posted on 8/18/20 at 7:33 am to HurricanesArentReal
At this point all the models are meaningless except for the possibility there will be a storm somewhere in the GOM next week. Guess what, it will be the last week of August so nobody can be shocked about that scenario.
Posted on 8/18/20 at 7:42 am to iron banks
The government in FL has announced that the people who lost houses in Michael can get a $15,000 loan. If it is used to replace a home, it will be forgiven.
Posted on 8/18/20 at 8:32 am to rds dc
Neither wave looks overall organized this morning but 98L looks the better of the two. The overnight ensembles are kind of split with the GEFSv12 favoring 97L slightly over 98L.
While the EPS has a number of members not really doing anything with either wave by Day 7.
Have to wait and see but it isn't uncommon for models to rush a pattern change. The current pattern really isn't favorable for WCAB/Gulf systems and so it wouldn't be surprising to see the models backing off a bit on these two systems. It still appears that 98L is the bigger concern of the two, simply because it approaches the WATL later in the period and might find less hostile conditions, if it gets in the Gulf.
While the EPS has a number of members not really doing anything with either wave by Day 7.
Have to wait and see but it isn't uncommon for models to rush a pattern change. The current pattern really isn't favorable for WCAB/Gulf systems and so it wouldn't be surprising to see the models backing off a bit on these two systems. It still appears that 98L is the bigger concern of the two, simply because it approaches the WATL later in the period and might find less hostile conditions, if it gets in the Gulf.
Posted on 8/18/20 at 8:48 am to rds dc
Thankfully 2020 unlike 2005 has had a lot of weaker storms. The seeds of destruction have been there, but conditions haven’t been right for major hurricanes, yet. It takes more than warm ocean water to create a Betsy or a Rita.
I think a lot of the overall situation is due to the Saharan dust and dry sir in the MDR. Hopefully this continues and while we see a plethora of storms, they remain on the lower end of the hurricane scale.
Both of these waves are messy and both have issues to overcome. Hopefully the issues present will keep them less organized.
I think a lot of the overall situation is due to the Saharan dust and dry sir in the MDR. Hopefully this continues and while we see a plethora of storms, they remain on the lower end of the hurricane scale.
Both of these waves are messy and both have issues to overcome. Hopefully the issues present will keep them less organized.
Posted on 8/18/20 at 8:50 am to rds dc
That's good news
Posted on 8/18/20 at 9:10 am to rds dc
Posted on 8/18/20 at 10:13 am to Dlab2013
Posted on 8/18/20 at 10:21 am to HurricanesArentReal
Looking more and more like at worst 2 pissant TS/Cat 1 and at best one or neither even holds it together.
Nothingburger. Entire season thus far has been this way. Too much dry air from the Sahara across the Atlantic and it’s holding all the systems in chevk
Nothingburger. Entire season thus far has been this way. Too much dry air from the Sahara across the Atlantic and it’s holding all the systems in chevk
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