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Started By
Message
1
Posted on 8/18/20 at 3:45 pm to bopper50
quote:
Houston cant take another storm right now please....
We could use a little rain...just not 48" in 48 hours.
Posted on 8/18/20 at 3:51 pm to Duke
I know a lot can change but this would be a big win for the Euro or be a total loss if these do develop.
Posted on 8/18/20 at 4:30 pm to Duke
quote:
Not just the operational run, it also looks like most if not all of the EPS members are dropping it.
It wasn't surprising to see the Op drop both systems, since there was decent ensemble support for that being one of the solutions. However, it is kind of surprising to see the ensembles back off so hard but conditions have never looked super favorable. Maybe it just took some time for the models to catch on? In addition to the Euro the 12z HMON & HAFS-B don't do anything with these systems.
Also, there is the possibility that the reduction of 24/7 airplane data might be playing a role in the model swings this season. I wouldn't be surprised to see things swing back the other way at some point neither system looks very good this evening.
Posted on 8/18/20 at 4:32 pm to rds dc
97L - Texas
98L - Florida
98L - Florida
Posted on 8/18/20 at 4:49 pm to DVinBR
We been getting so much rain in florida not sure how the trees would hold up with a cat 2 hurricane. Thing needs to start turning to the north
Posted on 8/18/20 at 4:55 pm to FLObserver
Something gonna happen next week......hopefully for Florida is ain’t this!
Posted on 8/18/20 at 5:01 pm to rds dc
quote:
However, it is kind of surprising to see the ensembles back off so hard but conditions have never looked super favorable. Maybe it just took some time for the models to catch on?
Agreed. Wasn't expecting to see 97L have more support from the ensembles. I think this could be a case of having a good enough situation for development if 98L wasn't stuck in that big monsoonal trough and having a couple of competing vorts. Strong easterlies to the north with a pocket of dry air leaves it very hard to organize that giant mess.
Isaias part 2. Hell been a theme all season, big waves vs dry air.
Posted on 8/18/20 at 5:06 pm to Dlab2013
What is the difference between the GFS and the GFS-parallel models?
ETA: other than pain for Florida apparently...
ETA: other than pain for Florida apparently...
This post was edited on 8/18/20 at 5:07 pm
Posted on 8/18/20 at 5:11 pm to Duke
quote:
Wasn't expecting to see 97L have more support from the ensembles
97L is getting shredded by dry air. Every updraft is collapsing and spitting outflows. Then there is a huge outflow coming off the northern coast of Venezuela that will cause issues for any future convection that tries to develop later on tonight.
This post was edited on 8/18/20 at 5:54 pm
Posted on 8/18/20 at 5:32 pm to rds dc
storms have trended heavily towards the east coast so far this hurricane season
Posted on 8/18/20 at 5:49 pm to Duke
Meanwhile in the EPAC...beautiful...in a meteorological sense...
Posted on 8/18/20 at 6:15 pm to Dlab2013
Damn,,, it looks like Joe Gibbs calling a counter trey left!
Posted on 8/18/20 at 6:45 pm to GCTigahs
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Aug 18 2020
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
A tropical wave located over the eastern Caribbean Sea is producing
a large area of cloudiness and disorganized thunderstorms, along
with strong gusty winds on the north side of the disturbance.
Significant development of this system is unlikely during the next
day or so while it moves quickly westward at about 20 mph across
the eastern and central Caribbean Sea. After that time, however,
the wave is forecast to move more slowly west-northwestward, and a
tropical depression is likely to form late this week or this
weekend when the system reaches the northwestern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
A broad and elongated area of low pressure located about 1000 miles
west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce a
concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms on the west side of
the disturbance. Environmental conditions are conducive for further
development, and a tropical depression is expected to form during
the next day or two while the system moves generally west-
northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the central and western
portions of the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
$$
Forecaster Stewart
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Aug 18 2020
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
A tropical wave located over the eastern Caribbean Sea is producing
a large area of cloudiness and disorganized thunderstorms, along
with strong gusty winds on the north side of the disturbance.
Significant development of this system is unlikely during the next
day or so while it moves quickly westward at about 20 mph across
the eastern and central Caribbean Sea. After that time, however,
the wave is forecast to move more slowly west-northwestward, and a
tropical depression is likely to form late this week or this
weekend when the system reaches the northwestern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
A broad and elongated area of low pressure located about 1000 miles
west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce a
concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms on the west side of
the disturbance. Environmental conditions are conducive for further
development, and a tropical depression is expected to form during
the next day or two while the system moves generally west-
northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the central and western
portions of the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
$$
Forecaster Stewart
Posted on 8/18/20 at 7:15 pm to NorthEndZone
These threads are fascinating. Really love watching them build and tracking them, but got damn, I’ve got 1700 acres of corn ready to harvest. Going to be some long days ahead.
Posted on 8/18/20 at 8:00 pm to rds dc
quote:
Also, there is the possibility that the reduction of 24/7 airplane data might be playing a role in the model swings this season.
If you would have told me a few months ago that Covid would negatively impact hurricane forecasting, I would have assumed social distancing, quarantining, or sickness amongst meteorologists and scientists was the reason.
Instead it’s a drastic reduction in international flights.
Posted on 8/18/20 at 8:06 pm to prostyleoffensetime
What type of revenue does 1700 acres of corn produce?
NM. Googled it.
NM. Googled it.
This post was edited on 8/18/20 at 8:07 pm
Posted on 8/18/20 at 8:17 pm to rds dc
18z Euro with basically nothing through 90hrs (as far out as it runs)
Posted on 8/18/20 at 8:19 pm to prostyleoffensetime
I hear you — husband has rice in the field but we’re (well he) is almost done with harvest. One year we had those who were fortunate to be done helping us to get the crop in the bins. Hard time of year but with weather issues looming, it can get tense.
Posted on 8/18/20 at 8:36 pm to tiger91
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