re: Laura - President Trump visits Lake Charles, Louisiana for Hurricane Response Update

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If I am Texas I am nervous. It looks like it is headed straight to Texas.

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I keep thinking this. It looks like it lands just west of Galveston. The science says no, though.

The storms current direction has nothing to do with where it's going. It doesn't have "momentum"

Duke after an EWRC font the winds usually stay down some but the overall size of the storm expands and TS winds can be felt further from the center.

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f I am Texas I am nervous. It looks like it is headed straight to Texas.

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Are you the guy on 2k wishing it closer to Houston?

A list of good follows on Twitter:

Philippe Papin - @pppapin

Tyler Standield - @TylerJStanfield

Eric Blake - @EricBlake12

Josh Morgerman - @iCyclone

Storm Chaser Nick - @stormchasernick (He's great for comic relief)

Mark Sudduth - @hurricanetrack

Levi Cowan - @TropicalTidbits

NOAANSSL - @NOAANSSL

National Hurricane Center- @NHC_Atlantic

NWS Storm Prediction Center - @NWSSPC

Mr. Typhoon - @TyphoonMr

Thanks Duke, I had no idea what you were talking about so I googled. Found this:

LINK

A feature of significant hurricanes is the eyewall replacement cycle. Basically what occurs is that a new eye begins to develop around the old eye. The new eye gradually decreases in diameter and replaces the old eye. With the profound increase in the number of extreme hurricanes the past few years there has been an opportunity to witness several eyewall replacement cycles.

When an eyewall replacement cycle occurs the intensity of the hurricane usually decreases. For example, a CAT 5 hurricane could weaken to a CAT 4 hurricane. The intensity weakens due to the gradual erosion of the inner eyewall. As the outer eyewall contracts and gains organization then the storm will often increase in intensity. Because of eyewall replacement cycles, a hurricane will typically not remain a CAT 5 for a long period of time.

Although an eyewall replacement cycle tends to reduce the category of a hurricane it also spread the hurricane force winds out over a larger area. This can cause a larger region to experience the extreme damage in a hurricane.

The forecast models have extreme difficulty with predicting an eyewall replacement cycle. Replacement cycles will usually happen with intense hurricanes but it is not known exactly when.

An important question is, "What causes these eyewall replacement cycles?" That is still being researched. Here are some possible explanations:

1. When the eye diameter gets too small then the eyewall convection is not able to stay organized. New convection and a new eyewall develop outside the old one where there is more space and energy.

2. Once the winds become too strong, turbulent breakdown occurs. This turbulence breaks apart portions of the eyewall which lead to its weakening. A new eyewall develops where the wind field remains less turbulent and more organized outside the old eyewall.

3. The band of convection outside the inner eyewall begins to rob the inner eyewall of moisture and energy. The inner eyewall weakens and the outer eyewall, which has greater moisture and energy, replaces it.

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Holly Beach

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For one thing, we will see how modern building codes stand up to a monster like Laura. We saw a similar thing with Matthew a couple years back at Mexico Beach where the newly built houses were standing and the old ones were vaporized. Everything in Holly Beach is new and should fair somewhat better this go-round compared to Rita, but who knows with a storm this angry.

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predicted it to be a Cat 3 at landfall

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If it comes in at a 5, how the hell did the wiff so badly on the strength? I mean, that can endanger lives. people who stay thinking it will be a 3, trusting the reports, get stuck in the path of a 5.

Buddy of mine has a camp on Pecan Island, he doesn’t have much hope...

Nice place as well...

Rummy you got questions, I'll answer them unless it's rds level difficult.