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Posted on 8/20/20 at 6:52 am to Roll Tide Ravens
quote:
06z GFS has TD 13 ride the west coast of Florida and come in around the big bend area. I think the key thing about the GFS right now isn’t so much where it shows the eventual landfall, but that it consistently shows the system in the Gulf.
Also it had it ramping up to 964 mb right before landfall which is pushing cat 3 strength
Posted on 8/20/20 at 6:52 am to Potchafa
Rip Flora Bama in that model
Posted on 8/20/20 at 7:37 am to Riolobo
Need rain here, but not that much. 
Posted on 8/20/20 at 7:45 am to Potchafa
Great cone.
Posted on 8/20/20 at 8:11 am to OysterPoBoy
PLEASE -- any of you that are going to Florida/Alabama during the week, stay out of the gulf. The drownings will begin soon because people will not stay out of the water when the red flags are flying. It is not worth losing a family member. Please be safe.
Posted on 8/20/20 at 8:13 am to ChenierauTigre
ok Karen.
Posted on 8/20/20 at 8:15 am to tigerinthebueche
So then let your kids drown. IDGAF. Jackass.
Posted on 8/20/20 at 8:17 am to ChenierauTigre
quote:
So then let your kids drown. IDGAF. Jackass.
sweet melt. You must be a joy to be around.
Posted on 8/20/20 at 8:31 am to tigerinthebueche
quote:
You must be a joy to be around.
Maybe it happened to him.
Posted on 8/20/20 at 8:38 am to tigerinthebueche
Yeaaaa this wasn’t the time for that.
Posted on 8/20/20 at 8:50 am to OysterPoBoy
that path sure doesnt have much land in its way to the gulf. How could it be anything less than a cat 3 if its in open water till it hits the gulf?
Posted on 8/20/20 at 8:54 am to FLObserver
quote:
that path sure doesnt have much land in its way to the gulf. How could it be anything less than a cat 3 if its in open water till it hits the gulf?
There are plenty of things that can inhibit a storms strength besides land. Things like shear and dry air will certainly keep a tropical storm from gaining strength.
Posted on 8/20/20 at 8:55 am to FLObserver
quote:
How could it be anything less than a cat 3 if its in open water till it hits the gulf?
So you think all that a storm needs is open water to be strong?
Posted on 8/20/20 at 8:59 am to FLObserver
quote:
that path sure doesnt have much land in its way to the gulf. How could it be anything less than a cat 3 if its in open water till it hits the gulf?
2 issues... lots of wind shear and dry air
there's a push of dry Saharan air basically riding along the north side of TD13... that'll inhibit strengthening b/c every time the storm gulps dry air it needs to cycle it out and moisten the air again (see the issues that have been plaguing 97L the last 2 days)
the storm at the low level is moving WNW... at the mid level there's that dry Saharan air that's also pushing air in a WSW direction into the storm... and then at the high level there's another feature that's driving air from the south.
3 levels... 3 different wind directions... lots of shear hitting TD13
the problem is that as the storm would be getting to the islands/Florida straits... the shear should diminish
This post was edited on 8/20/20 at 9:21 am
Posted on 8/20/20 at 9:04 am to ChenierauTigre
quote:
PLEASE -- any of you that are going to Florida/Alabama during the week, stay out of the gulf. The drownings will begin soon because people will not stay out of the water when the red flags are flying. It is not worth losing a family member. Please be safe.
Good advice. I was walking on the beach in Orange Beach a few years ago and actually saw the aftermath. There was a tropical system way offshore in the Gulf and the actual weather was beautiful but very breezy and the current and riptide were very strong.
I saw lifeguards going to the end of the private pier at the condo close to Turquoise Place. They were clearly trying to look for someone. A helicopter was also circling overhead looking for someone. Turns out that a young father in his early/mid 30s saw his 11 year old son struggling to fight the strong currents pulling him further from shore. The father was able to get to his son who managed to get back in safely but the father went missing. They searched the waters just offshore for hours but never found the father.
It can literally happen that quickly during red flag days
Posted on 8/20/20 at 9:06 am to rt3
quote:
the problem is that as the storm would be getting to the islands/Florida straights... the shear should diminish
If 97L isn't much of a storm, the forecast has conditions to be very favorable for TD13 by the Bahamas.
It's going to be a mess until then with the layers of shear and dry air it's dealing with. The problem is, if it's a TS when it gets the good conditions it can ramp up fast.
Posted on 8/20/20 at 9:12 am to deuce985
quote:
NO residents better permanently evacuate that city until hurricane season is over.
quote:
permanently
quote:
until
LOL!
Posted on 8/20/20 at 9:15 am to tigersbh
Got da sticky
Posted on 8/20/20 at 9:19 am to FLObserver
quote:
How could it be anything less than a cat 3 if its in open water till it hits the gulf?
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