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re: Laura - President Trump visits Lake Charles, Louisiana for Hurricane Response Update
Posted on 8/20/20 at 10:05 am to LSUFanHouston
Posted on 8/20/20 at 10:05 am to LSUFanHouston
So are we looking at potential for two hurricanes in the Gulf next week?
0
Posted on 8/20/20 at 10:06 am to LSUFanHouston
So the NHC has it around Galveston Tues/Wed time frame. With the water temps in the gulf, wouldn't it inevitably strengthen? Or is there a potential front or dry air that time frame that keeps it from strengthening? TD #14 I am speaking on
Posted on 8/20/20 at 10:07 am to Prominentwon
quote:
Looking at the models though, I’m assuming it’ll be a depression/TS event.
Lots of rain
With NHC discussion saying shear could increase in day 4/5 in the area of 14... could 14 become a storm in which most of the rain/issues are well to the east?
If so, that could mean a center headed into the central TX coast could actually be a lot worse for South and SE Louisiana.
Posted on 8/20/20 at 10:07 am to rt3
The official NHC forecasts, not just some of the models, now have a strong Cat 1 west of Tampa and a strong TS south of TX/LA in 5 days.
At the same time on Tuesday morning the official forecast points are only 567 nautical miles (653 miles) apart.
At the same time on Tuesday morning the official forecast points are only 567 nautical miles (653 miles) apart.
Posted on 8/20/20 at 10:08 am to rt3
10am CDT updates:
TD 13
TD 14
TD 13
TD 14
This post was edited on 8/20/20 at 10:09 am
Posted on 8/20/20 at 10:09 am to Prominentwon
TD14 is actually a little concerning on the projected path because it's going into boiling hot conditions and smaller systems like that if they get their act together can ramp up into RI. Not saying that's happening here...but I wouldn't underestimate it right now either.
Posted on 8/20/20 at 10:11 am to LSUFanHouston
quote:
Last night, experts said: Man, 98L is looking rough.
Shortly thereafter: NHC issues TD 13
This morning, experts said: Man, 97L is looking rough.
Shortly thereafter: NHC issues TD 14
Yesterday the experts had 98L at 90% chance of becoming a depression although the two top models had nothing. 21 hours ago
yesterday the experts had 97L at 60% chance of becoming a Depression. Neither of the top models had anything.
The two top models have been getting killed.
This post was edited on 8/20/20 at 10:33 am
Posted on 8/20/20 at 10:13 am to rt3
quote:
NHC now putting a hurricane in the eastern Gulf early next week
I'm leaning towards this, with potential to be stronger than what it is currently looking like.
Posted on 8/20/20 at 10:13 am to Roll Tide Ravens
Has there ever had two storms in the gulf at the same time?
Like I said, 2020 is the year of giving.
Like I said, 2020 is the year of giving.
Posted on 8/20/20 at 10:14 am to deuce985
quote:
TD14 is actually a little concerning on the projected path because it's going into boiling hot conditions and smaller systems like that if they get their act together can ramp up into RI. Not saying that's happening here...but I wouldn't underestimate it right now either.
Levi talked about the window for TD14 developing is opening right now but will shut sometime over the weekend
shear is supposed to come into the area as a trough digs in
don't know if that's changed since last night... but that's what he had been talking about
Posted on 8/20/20 at 10:15 am to LSUFanHouston
quote:
Last night, experts said: Man, 98L is looking rough.
Shortly thereafter: NHC issues TD 13
This morning, experts said: Man, 97L is looking rough.
Shortly thereafter: NHC issues TD 14
Every person and entity is struggling to square the global models with the intensity models right now. They are exact opposites with both systems.
Posted on 8/20/20 at 10:15 am to LSUfanNkaty
quote:
So the NHC has it around Galveston Tues/Wed time frame. With the water temps in the gulf, wouldn't it inevitably strengthen? Or is there a potential front or dry air that time frame that keeps it from strengthening? TD #14 I am speaking on
Water temp is just one ingredient although Al Gore would lead you to believe it’s all that matters.
Conditions are very tricky as there is a big upper level though over the GOM. The interaction between the Depression and that tough and with the land will determine the intensity. It’S August and thd water is plenty hot.
Posted on 8/20/20 at 10:15 am to fishfighter
In regards to TD 14, even a landfall just west of the LA/TX border puts Louisiana on the east side, where the heavier rain will be. Maybe it'll move fast enough not to cause a lot of flooding issues.
This post was edited on 8/20/20 at 10:30 am
Posted on 8/20/20 at 10:16 am to fishfighter
Not that I am superstitious but I made a big joke costume about "corona beer virus" last February for Mardi Gras before the shat hit the fan....so I ain't saying nothing about the potential storm in the Gulf.
Posted on 8/20/20 at 10:17 am to doubleb
quote:
The interaction between the Depression and that tough and with the land will determine the intensity. It’S August and thd water is plenty hot.
That trough doesn't appear like it will be hanging around long, though.
Posted on 8/20/20 at 10:17 am to rds dc
While we wait for the 12z runs a quick look at the 06z ensembles. The GEFSv12 & Euro EPS have about 25 members that track TD14 in to the Gulf. Combined there are over 80 members between the GEFSv12 & EPS.
Posted on 8/20/20 at 10:20 am to doubleb
Wow, a possible Fujiwhara effect in the GOM!!! frick you 2020...
Posted on 8/20/20 at 10:21 am to NorthEndZone
This is a few hours old. Look for some of the heavy amounts forecast to increase and spread inland in the next few days as the forecast is refined.
Posted on 8/20/20 at 10:22 am to LegendInMyMind
quote:
That trough doesn't appear like it will be hanging around long, though.
No but initially it could shear the system and keep it from strengthening. .
Posted on 8/20/20 at 10:22 am to LegendInMyMind
well aint this some shite
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