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re: Laura - President Trump visits Lake Charles, Louisiana for Hurricane Response Update
Posted on 8/23/20 at 10:48 am to deltaland
Posted on 8/23/20 at 10:48 am to deltaland
quote:
Gotta love the OT weather experts that ignore everything the models predict
This actually happened in 2002 with Hurricane Lily. Lily was a Cat4 in the Guif headed straight for Vermillion bay. I went to bed expecting to wake up to some bad shite but it weakened to a Cat 1 as it approached land. Later research showed Hurricane Isidore which followed a similar landfall oath a week earlier cooled the gulf waters causing Lily to loose energy.
This post was edited on 8/23/20 at 10:49 am
3
Posted on 8/23/20 at 10:49 am to Ailsa
do we have a spot open for a new square?
"cat 1 + cat 1 = cat 11"
"cat 1 + cat 1 = cat 11"
Posted on 8/23/20 at 10:49 am to Duke
Posted on 8/23/20 at 10:50 am to michael corleone
quote:
If Marco is sitting somewhere in east Texas on Wed, I would think Laura lands East of that position.
Hopefully there’s no way they can combine into a super hurricane, the first cat 7.
Posted on 8/23/20 at 10:51 am to kciDAtaE
quote:
quote:
Many of the models are wrong more often than right.
But they always get it right in the end. Just like ETA on your traffic app.
On August 26th at 10am, most had Katrina hitting near Panama City.
This post was edited on 8/23/20 at 10:53 am
Posted on 8/23/20 at 10:52 am to Anaximander
The models get better every year.
Posted on 8/23/20 at 10:53 am to Duke
I thought that the stronger Laura was the more likely she turns north earlier. So south now sounds good but could be bad. Correct?
Posted on 8/23/20 at 10:53 am to LSU1018
Looking like BR won’t get much of Laura.
Posted on 8/23/20 at 10:53 am to lsufan1971
quote:
Later research showed Hurricane Isidore which followed a similar landfall oath a week earlier cooled the gulf waters causing Lily to loose energy
Dude, Lily was heading towards br so I packed my shite up and went to my parents in ville platte. Lily changed path and the eye passed pretty close to vp. fricked up Ville platte pretty good. Couldn’t leave because it was so messed up for like 3 days.
Posted on 8/23/20 at 10:54 am to thermal9221
quote:
thermal9221
Being in VP at my parents house did us no good -- I'd just as soon stayed home in Abbeville.
Posted on 8/23/20 at 10:55 am to thermal9221
quote:
fricked up Ville platte pretty good. Couldn’t leave because it was so messed up for like 3 days.
AND it was the week before squirrel season ... the men in my parents' neighborhood were clearing the trees from the road IN THE FIN EYE OF THE STORM .. there was NO time to waste!!
Posted on 8/23/20 at 10:55 am to CaptainJ47
quote:
I thought that the stronger Laura was the more likely she turns north earlier. So south now sounds good but could be bad. Correct?
All things being equal a stronger storm will tend to turn north.
All things are not equal.
The ridge steers it. Farther south has it take a less sharp ride around it and brings it farther west.
Posted on 8/23/20 at 10:56 am to Cosmo
quote:
Wishcasting strong this AM
People posting about wishcasting has gotten more annoying than any widhcssting itself at this point
Posted on 8/23/20 at 10:57 am to bee Rye
Agreed.
Posted on 8/23/20 at 10:58 am to thermal9221
12Z GFS looks almost right on top of the latest track for landfall. 
Posted on 8/23/20 at 10:59 am to tigafan4life
quote:
Looking like BR won’t get much of Laura.
Posted on 8/23/20 at 11:00 am to lsufan1971
quote:
This actually happened in 2002 with Hurricane Lily. Lily was a Cat4 in the Guif headed straight for Vermillion bay. I went to bed expecting to wake up to some bad shite but it weakened to a Cat 1 as it approached land.
Rita was the most intense Cat 5 on record for the gulf and like the 4th strongest ever recorded but weakened to a 3 right before land fall
Posted on 8/23/20 at 11:03 am to tigafan4life
quote:
Looking like BR won’t get much of Laura.
Way too early to say that
Posted on 8/23/20 at 11:05 am to rds dc
sure, they shifted it farther west
still grains of salt as they still don't know as the computers dont know how to handle the land interaction
still grains of salt as they still don't know as the computers dont know how to handle the land interaction
Posted on 8/23/20 at 11:07 am to DVinBR
Anybody have any insight as to whether CenLa needs to worry about flooding? Wind damage?
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