re: Laura - President Trump visits Lake Charles, Louisiana for Hurricane Response Update

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dukke v

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I think Laura gets held up a bit longer over and near Cuba and it is enough to push the track back east and possibly landing as a 3


You mean you hope...

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I’ll just get to it this morning.

Tropical Storm Marco…

LOCATION...24.7N 87.3W
ABOUT 325 MI...520 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 475 MI...765 KM SE OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES

Hurricane hunters have been in Marco all morning, and have found a storm that is at least holding steady, strength wise. It’s bordering on hurricane status from what I see, and since I’m writing this update a half hour before they put out the 10:00 AM update, I’ll have to wait and see what they say. I’ll of course add that information in when it’s available. Hey, it’s been updated! They decided to hold Marco as a 70 mph tropical storm, which totally makes sense. Marco has been encountering some wind shear, but also some of that upper divergence I rattled on about yesterday. That has sustained deep thunderstorms over the center of Marco, and allowed it to stay fairly robust in less than ideal conditions. Marco is still forecast to become a hurricane, and be a category one hurricane at landfall. Because of the small size, and wind shear, I except Marco to weaken quickly after landfall. The track looks ominous, but I’m getting more optimistic that Marco will bring us a manageable amount of rain. Perhaps 1-2 inches for most in central Louisiana, and light enough wind to avoid major power outages. Perhaps 20-25 mph, with occasional gusts in storms over 40. Landfall will happen Monday afternoon, with local impacts peaking from then until early Tuesday. So as of now, I think Marco could fall into the “not that big of a deal” category locally, but there will be plenty of surge flooding along the coast, and potentially some pretty decent issues along and south of I 10 near the center. So if you’re reading this from those areas, the impacts could absolutely be significant down there. Don’t take my local optimism as a license to not prepare.

Tropical Storm Laura…

LOCATION...19.2N 73.2W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM NW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SE OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

Laura is a different story. Laura maintained strength overnight, and might be strengthening this morning as it has a brief window over water before it interacts with Cuba. Laura rolled right over the mountains of Hispaniola, and didn’t lose a bit of organization, which is a testament to just how ideal the environment for strengthening would be if there were no land. Laura has the look of a much stronger system, and when it clears Cuba, should strengthen steadily or rapidly under very light shear, plenty of moisture, and sea surface temperatures of at least 88 degrees. These are nearly perfect conditions for rapid intensification. Models still have some track spread, but are much less wonky than Marco. The updated forecast track from NHC takes this on a very similar path to Rita, which would obviously mean big problems for our area. The track guidance is more clear cut on Laura, than Marco, so I expect a similar path to what is forecast, though it could easily swing 50-100 miles either way. Even a 100 mile shift west would bring us problems, as Laura is forecast to hook northeast after landfall. That would put us on the wrong side of the storm, and bring some rain and wind, as well as the potential for tornadoes. That’s all too far out to get specific on, but I should be able to break that down tomorrow. For now, Laura looks like the main local issue.

So that’s where we stand right now. Some Marco impacts could be felt as soon as Monday afternoon, but the main issue will likely be Laura. There’s less of a path for Laura to weaken, or miss our area, as it has actually strengthened as it crossed Hispaniola. Which is covered in mountains. Laura evidently doesn’t care. I’ll update things after the 4:00 PM NHC update, but will probably wait a couple hours to get as much new information as possible. Stay tuned.

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