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2
Posted on 4/25/22 at 1:56 pm to nitwit
quote:
The NATO countries are neither crazy nor stupid. They will not risk their continued existence based on Russian use of tactical nukes on foreign soil.
The point of MAD is that this doesn’t happen. It’s moot if it does and then there’s no response. The calculus is in how big the response is. I’d imagine NATO isn’t dropping big boy on Moscow over some small tactical nukes used in Ukraine, but they’re also not saying “well they were just small, we’ll let it go.”
Posted on 4/25/22 at 1:57 pm to StormyMcMan
The Russian people: Ok, so you beat the crap out of us and put us in jail when we peacefully protest, fine, we'll just start burning shite down.
Posted on 4/25/22 at 1:57 pm to DabosDynasty
Which is why Putin won't use even tactical nukes. The response would crush the rest of his military in Ukraine.
Posted on 4/25/22 at 1:59 pm to DabosDynasty
quote:
Surprised there haven’t been more strikes on Russian bordering cities/assets since they pulled out of Kyiv. This is only a little over 500 miles from Kyiv. I guess maybe they don’t want to mess around and give the Russian populace a reason to buy into the war?
The only weapons that Ukraine has that can reach that far are its Neptune cruise missiles and Tochka tactical ballistic missiles. It has a very limited number of both which is why we have not seen Ukraine target more of the Russian infrastructure close to the border.
Posted on 4/25/22 at 1:59 pm to LeClerc
quote:
The Russian people: Ok, so you beat the crap out of us and put us in jail when we peacefully protest, fine, we'll just start burning shite down.
I would like for that to be the situation. It does make logical sense.
Posted on 4/25/22 at 2:26 pm to Centinel
quote:
Which is why Putin won't use even tactical nukes. The response would crush the rest of his military in Ukraine.
Agree, only possible exception is if he really is potentially dying, knows he’s losing, and wants to try to have an excuse to try and take the west down with him which requires much more than a couple tactical nukes. But I think that’s a lot more worst case fantasy than anywhere near reality.
Posted on 4/25/22 at 2:28 pm to DabosDynasty
quote:
But I think that’s a lot more worst case fantasy than anywhere near reality.
It would be the end of Russia as a nation. His ego couldn't accept the fact he would be the last leader of a failed Russian nation that effectively ceased to exist.
Posted on 4/25/22 at 2:50 pm to Centinel
Do you see the possibility of his thinking if he takes an action like using tactical nukes that lures the west to respond with their own nukes and that descending in to full WWIII where Putin can at least blame being vastly outnumbered and outgunned vs all but ending Russia with a complete failure in Ukraine, a war his people didn’t want? So to once again, as always, blame the west for ganging up on Russia.
ETA: this was the only context I could see it happening, but again view it as much closer to some sort of worst case fantasy and unlikely.
ETA: this was the only context I could see it happening, but again view it as much closer to some sort of worst case fantasy and unlikely.
This post was edited on 4/25/22 at 2:57 pm
Posted on 4/25/22 at 2:57 pm to DabosDynasty
Yes, if Putin creates WWIII, his biggest concern will be who gets the blame and how he successfully created the appearances of the West ganging up on him.
Posted on 4/25/22 at 3:00 pm to nitwit
Didn’t say biggest concern, my point was if he’s truly dying and chooses to try and take the west down with him but that gives him some degree of cover via the west ganging up on Russia as they’ve been saying has happened for 70+ years now.
Posted on 4/25/22 at 3:04 pm to DabosDynasty
quote:
that gives him some degree of cover
Cover wouldn’t amount to much if the entirety of Russia got turned into dust. Which it would if he did something that idiotic.
Posted on 4/25/22 at 3:04 pm to Centinel
quote:
Even tactical nuclear weapons create the possibility of drifting fallout in to neighboring countries.
Would be karma if the fallout drift east into Russia
Posted on 4/25/22 at 3:08 pm to StormyMcMan
Nevermind...post was from April 22
This post was edited on 4/25/22 at 3:10 pm
Posted on 4/25/22 at 3:10 pm to StormyMcMan
And how exactly do they plan on getting material there while running low on material in their other war?
Posted on 4/25/22 at 3:17 pm to StraightCashHomey21
The risk is at least as great for Russia as anybody else for fallout risk arising out of tactical nukes. I am not a nuclear arms expert (nor, apparently are most others in this thread), but the whole idea with tactical nukes is to limit fallout risk, but such a device used in eastern Ukraine or Kiev would not be comforting to Russian speaking allies, to Russians just across the border or to Belarus.
Posted on 4/25/22 at 3:19 pm to nitwit
quote:
The risk is at least as great for Russia as anybody else for fallout risk arising out of tactical nukes. I am not a nuclear arms expert (nor, apparently are most others in this thread), but the whole idea with tactical nukes is to limit fallout risk, but such a device used in eastern Ukraine or Kiev would not be comforting to Russian speaking allies, to Russians just across the border or to Belarus.
Good. I'm glad to see you're finally beginning to understand why Putin won't even used tactical nukes.
Posted on 4/25/22 at 3:28 pm to DabosDynasty
quote:we would assuredly implement a no fly zone over ukraine in response, which would probably ultimately lead us to eventually dropping the big boy on moscow
I’d imagine NATO isn’t dropping big boy on Moscow over some small tactical nukes used in Ukraine, but they’re also not saying “well they were just small, we’ll let it go.”
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