re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Ya, a sovereign nation invading another one, especially in Europe, tends to stay in the headlines.

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dropping big boy on Moscow

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The great thing about modern ICBMs is that a couple guys sitting in a bunker in Cheyenne, WY can unleash complete destruction on Moscow without even leaving the room.

“Well alright fellas, that does it. I’m going take a shite, let me know when they hit.”

Personal and completely uneducated guess:

A tactical nuke used by Russia would result in a single conventional, not nuclear, response from NATO with the claim that fallout could reach Poland.

Something like a 500 Tomahawk salvo on military and fuel installations. Can be accomplished in about 6 hours so long as 2 SSGNs and a few cruisers/destroyers are in the area.

That or a no-fly zone, or both. Probably both.

The point needs to be a demonstration that nuclear weapons are not “de escalatory”. Russian doctrine tries to pretend “we escalate with nukes to de escalate”.

Show a strong conventional response demonstrating that nukes had the opposite effect, then get ready to see if Ivan ever learns.

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BREAKING:

Two large explosions reported in the city of Parcani in Transnistria (“breakaway republic of Moldova”).

Parcani is right next to the border with Moldova.

There was an RPG attack against the Ministry of Security of Transnistria a few hours ago too.

Escalation.

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LINK

Interesting....

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Interesting....

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Sounds like locals in Moldova don't back up the Russian sources who are making the report of explosions.

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Moldovan authorities warned that the incident was an attempt "to create pretexts."

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When Russians speak, no one should listen.

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Personal and completely uneducated guess:

A tactical nuke used by Russia would result in a single conventional, not nuclear, response from NATO with the claim that fallout could reach Poland.

Something like a 500 Tomahawk salvo on military and fuel installations. Can be accomplished in about 6 hours so long as 2 SSGNs and a few cruisers/destroyers are in the area.

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That was my thought as well - that the US/NATO would attempt an “equivalent” response with conventional weapons. The response needs to be significant so that it sends a message to the world (not just Russia). At the same time, there’s a fine line because there is a LOT of room for escalation beyond tactical nukes and nobody really wants to test MAD. Conventional weapons are also less likely to cause division among our allies, at a time where a unified stance is critical.

I don’t think Russia dropping a tactical nuke in Ukraine is a true MAD scenario, since the term typically applies to wars between nuclear powers. But if there’s not a swift and severe response from the world, it reinforces the message that the only real way to be safe from a nuclear strike is to have your own nukes - something Ukraine gave up many years ago, ironically, in exchange for security assurances from Russia.

I think immediate decapitation, with a clear message to those next-in-line that further escalation will result in Moscow turning to glass, would be a more effective deterrent moving forward. But that would be extremely risky and probably difficult to pull off. Despite Russia’s issues in the current war, I don’t think they’re stupid enough to leave Putin exposed in the immediate aftermath of a nuclear strike.

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The last few care packages

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A few more tanks and a few more planes.

The US, the UK, the Germans and the French have all donated 155mm artillery pieces, some self propelled. Thats really what the Ukrainians have been missing is the long range boom. Next couple of weeks will be interesting.

Not just. The offbook stuff I’m hearing about is damned impressive. The 155mm stuff is impressive mind, I’m talking other materials.

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Russia says they better not.

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