re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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Any insight into who Putin is trying to replace them with? Competent, or apparatchiks?

What does he think he gains?

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Short answer - Putin's background has always given him a heightened sense of paranoia and now that the situation is Russia is spiraling downward out of his control, he is going to the mattresses. Military replacements will be very loyal and very weak.

Long version - As GOP pointed out in his 10-point post above, the war is now going very badly for Putin and he feels the pressure acutely. Coming from a career in the KGB and Russian criminal syndicates, he is much closer to paranoia than we would normally expect. He knows first hand how cheap life is in his world.

In the past, Putin chose higher leadership in both the government and military according to the candidate's loyalty to Putin. If they were a bit incompetent, that was even better as this would present someone who would be less inclined to get ideas. But now, with the situation in Russia rapidly approaching a crash landing, Putin is doubling down on loyalty and incompetence. The recent change of Belousov for Shoigu is the proof of this.

The military is the most powerful organization in Russia and Putin is desperate not only to control it but to neuter it. The arrest of seven generals associated with previous military leadership in the last ten days - and certainly more to come - underlines this as well. Finally, the fact that the FSB is doing all the dirty work shows the choice Putin has made.

The army may roll over and go quietly as they did under Stalin and with Prigodzin. But then again, they may not. If you are keeping score, the question of how many armored divisions the FSB has must be part of the calculation.

The critical point will be when the FSB tries to arrest a general like Surovikin or Viktor Panchenkov, head of the Academy of the Ministry of Emergency Situations. Panchenkov famously refused to salute Putin at the annual Victory Day parade. If the FSB tries to take down either of these two, they will need those divisions. But after the arrests of last week, every officer in the military should be ready for them.

And yeah, what about the war in Ukraine? Right now, all the Russians want is to get out while they still can.

Sometimes you may wonder, "How is the war effort going for Russia, really?"

Viktor Orban has some comments that should give you insight.

LINK

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During a radio interview on Friday, Orbán admitted that his ally may be in way over his head as the Russia-Ukraine war rages on. "If the Russians were strong enough to defeat the Ukrainians in one go, they would have been defeated, but that's not what we're seeing," Orbán said.

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Orban was the only guy in NATO who remains openly friendly towards Russia. This commentary shows just how bad things are going.

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OMLandshark

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Checked in this thread for the first time in a couple months only to find this dude is off his meds and posting again.

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Checked in this thread for the first time in a couple months only to find this dude is off his meds and posting again.

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The Azov are Nazis. This is a fact. If you root for Azov, you are rooting for Nazis.

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Mr Stoltenberg’s clear, if unnamed, target was the policy maintained by Joe Biden, America’s president, of controlling what Ukraine can and cannot attack with American-supplied systems.

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Even he knows Dementia Joe is a complete and utter failure.

20% of Ukranians have answered with their feet and left the country rather than be conscripted and slaughtered on the front lines while cargo pants dances to blinken playing the guitar in one of his discos, while discussing what villa he will buy next with US taxpayer dollars.

Russia offers peace and some of you aholes want the killing to continue.

And somehow believe Ukraine has a negotiating leg to stand on. They have pissed away half the 61 billion and it hasnt even gotten there yet. And it wont make a difference, neither will a handful of f-16s. Its over, its well over. And we have pissed away 200 billion dollars on this nonsense.

Give to Mother Russia what is Mother Russia's and stop this . charade.

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Give to Mother Russia what is Mother Russia's and stop this . charade.

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And we're supposed to believe that you aren't Russian?

You are laughable. Russia has taken a good portion of the country. 20% of Ukraine has left, 100s of thousands more are dead or wounded. The destruction is approaching half a trillion dollars. Their economy is a disaster (though the prognosticators love to throw in the 100s of billions in US support as part of their GDP).

Yet you somehow believe Russia is "on the verge of collapse". Its laughable, truly laughable.

And yet you condone the continued slaughter of humans on both sides. Russia is offering an end to it, the ball is in the US court, they started it and they can end it.

MSM hasn't done us any favors saying for two years that Ukraine is winning at every turn while this thing drags on. That said, it appears we are at a scary point where each side is staggered and trying to deliver a haymaker.

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“Zelensky wants a conflict between the United States and Russia to begin,” American television The Hill.

But why should Russia suddenly worry about this? Ukraine has been attempting to strike Russian targets for a while now without much success. Well, because now Ukraine is having serious success. I previously reported on the Russian S-400’s troubles against the ATACMS missile: the problems have gotten much worse for Russia. S-400s are now being regularly taken out to pasture by the barely stoppable ATACMS.

Another battery was just decimated yesterday in Donetsk with a second claimed one being hit in Alushta, Crimea again, though there’s no definitive evidence on that yet. Though I should note I’m not sure it’s proven the below is an S-400, as some suggest it could have been an S-300/350 series based on the destroyed radar.

But here we can finally see in full color how it goes down with the newly released Ukrainian footage. Not only is the S-300/400 and surrounding Shorad defenders—if any—incapable of neutralizing the guiding Shark drone, but the ATACMS missiles themselves overwhelm the battery:

How do we know it’s ATACMS and not anything else? The extremely wide cluster munitions spread is consistent with the much larger ATACMS rather than HIMARS, for instance, which carries less munitions and has a far smaller spread. Also, in the post-strike damage video seen above you can clearly see a discarded ATACMS fuselage on the ground. Ukraine also released a video showing a launch of up to 8 or more ATACMS, though it’s not 100% clear it is meant to show this one specific attack, though that appeared to be the implication.

So: assuming that launch was in fact connected to this particular S-400 hit, what can we surmise? The S-400 battery clearly launches a slew of missiles, and most analysts are interpreting that to mean that the battery did manage to shoot down almost the entire ATACMS package, with only one missile hitting cleanly at the end. But that one was enough to destroy virtually the entire battery.

The problem is: the S-400 is meant to have a 400km detection range. But the system is clearly engaging the ATACMS only seconds away from their impact. This could indicate a major shortcoming of the system, or merely our lack of details.

For instance: sure, the radar itself can detect 400km in the most optimistic/idealistic conditions, but:

That’s only for maximal-sized objects with huge RCS’s like B-52s. A missile, even a large one like an ATACMS, would still be detected at a much closer range—it’s simply down to mathematics. In fact, as the calculations in the above image show, a sub 1.0 RCS object (which most missiles are) would be detected at approximately 30km or less.

The S-300/400 systems can and are loaded with a variety of different missile types for different purposes, some being very short range missiles. If this particular battery was equipped with mostly short ranged ones then it would not be able to engage the ATACMS at long range anyway.

There’s no telling of the crew training of the particular unit.

Some pro-Russian analysts say it’s still a success when the systems are shooting down “most” of the ATACMS at 70-90% rate. The problem is, when your S-300/400 are being attrited with multiple batteries taken out each week, it doesn’t matter if your success rate is 90%—your systems are still failing in their primary duty. It’s just that it’s not a failure particular to them but of the entire AD eco-system. There appears to be a lack of integration (IADS) and a holistic approach to detecting objects at safe ranges, which includes utilizing AWACS and other airborne platforms. The fact that the S-400 is only responding at the final moments of the missiles’ arrival time and time again is a deep issue in detection for the Russian forces.

If it is true that another system was likewise hit in Alushta, Crimea just a day later, then it means Russia has no way of reliably stopping the ATACMS as they are pretty much hitting anything at will.

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LINK