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Started By
Message
re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 5/24/24 at 1:36 pm to GOP_Tiger
Posted on 5/24/24 at 1:36 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
I think that today's story from Reuters marks a turning point in the war. It's an acknowledgment from Putin that the strategic tide is turning against him, regardless of whether Russian troops manage to capture another couple of Ukrainian farms in the next few weeks.
These, I think, are the factors that Putin is considering:
1) The financial inability for Russia to continue this war for more than another 9-12 months,
2) The fact that another big mobilization would cause serious harm to the Russian economy and hasten the financial collapse,
3) The looming military crisis when Russia no longer has armored vehicles that it can pull out of storage and efficiently refurbish, which I think happens in 6-9 months,
4) The fact that ATACMS, etc. are systematically removing air defense and Russian ships from Crimea. Long-term, Russia will struggle to maintain military control of Crimea,
5) The fact that the Kharkiv incursion is leading the West to reconsider its policies for weapons use inside Russia,
6) The impending arrival of F-16s in Ukraine,
7) The growing Ukrainian defense industry, with Ukrainian drones now increasingly a strategic threat,
8) The upcoming "peace summit" in Switzerland next month, where much of the world will commit to support Ukraine in the restoration of its borders,
9) The G7 meeting next month, where G7 leaders will advance Ukraine $50 billion as an advance on the profits from the investment of seized Russian assets,
10) The arrival of ammo from the US (and, to a lesser extent, from the Czech initiative), restoring the ability of Ukraine to lessen the fires disparity along the front,
11) The successful implementation of the new Ukrainian mobilization law, ensuring that Ukraine will have the troops needed to fight for a long time to come,
12) The deepening Russian dependence on China, with Xi exerting a growing influence over the Russian economy.
In my opinion, Putin has looked at the strategic situation and finally concluded that the war is not going to continue to go his way. This is the first time that Putin has started looking for an exit ramp.
In my gut this feels like giving Hitler a time out after D-Day...
1
Posted on 5/24/24 at 1:45 pm to Lee B
quote:
n my gut this feels like giving Hitler a time out right before he attacks Stalingrad..
FIFY
Posted on 5/24/24 at 1:52 pm to doubleb
$275 million package under Presidential Drawdown Authority officially announced:
Posted on 5/24/24 at 2:36 pm to tokenBoiler
quote:Short answer - Putin's background has always given him a heightened sense of paranoia and now that the situation is Russia is spiraling downward out of his control, he is going to the mattresses. Military replacements will be very loyal and very weak.
Any insight into who Putin is trying to replace them with? Competent, or apparatchiks?
What does he think he gains?
Long version - As GOP pointed out in his 10-point post above, the war is now going very badly for Putin and he feels the pressure acutely. Coming from a career in the KGB and Russian criminal syndicates, he is much closer to paranoia than we would normally expect. He knows first hand how cheap life is in his world.
In the past, Putin chose higher leadership in both the government and military according to the candidate's loyalty to Putin. If they were a bit incompetent, that was even better as this would present someone who would be less inclined to get ideas. But now, with the situation in Russia rapidly approaching a crash landing, Putin is doubling down on loyalty and incompetence. The recent change of Belousov for Shoigu is the proof of this.
The military is the most powerful organization in Russia and Putin is desperate not only to control it but to neuter it. The arrest of seven generals associated with previous military leadership in the last ten days - and certainly more to come - underlines this as well. Finally, the fact that the FSB is doing all the dirty work shows the choice Putin has made.
The army may roll over and go quietly as they did under Stalin and with Prigodzin. But then again, they may not. If you are keeping score, the question of how many armored divisions the FSB has must be part of the calculation.
The critical point will be when the FSB tries to arrest a general like Surovikin or Viktor Panchenkov, head of the Academy of the Ministry of Emergency Situations. Panchenkov famously refused to salute Putin at the annual Victory Day parade. If the FSB tries to take down either of these two, they will need those divisions. But after the arrests of last week, every officer in the military should be ready for them.
And yeah, what about the war in Ukraine? Right now, all the Russians want is to get out while they still can.
Posted on 5/24/24 at 2:55 pm to Coeur du Tigre
Thanks.
I wade through the shite in this thread, and sometimes it's worth it.
Thanks
I wade through the shite in this thread, and sometimes it's worth it.
Thanks
Posted on 5/24/24 at 4:09 pm to tokenBoiler
Sometimes you may wonder, "How is the war effort going for Russia, really?"
Viktor Orban has some comments that should give you insight.
LINK
Orban was the only guy in NATO who remains openly friendly towards Russia. This commentary shows just how bad things are going.
Viktor Orban has some comments that should give you insight.
LINK
quote:
During a radio interview on Friday, Orbán admitted that his ally may be in way over his head as the Russia-Ukraine war rages on. "If the Russians were strong enough to defeat the Ukrainians in one go, they would have been defeated, but that's not what we're seeing," Orbán said.
Orban was the only guy in NATO who remains openly friendly towards Russia. This commentary shows just how bad things are going.
Posted on 5/24/24 at 4:13 pm to tokenBoiler
Wow, Tucker the Stupid Phucker was right about the biolabs.
Look at these bio engineered specimens marching to the front.
LINK
Look at these bio engineered specimens marching to the front.
LINK
Posted on 5/24/24 at 4:29 pm to OMLandshark
quote:
OMLandshark
Checked in this thread for the first time in a couple months only to find this dude is off his meds and posting again.
Posted on 5/24/24 at 4:44 pm to FutureCorridor49
NATO’s boss wants to free Ukraine to strike hard inside Russia
Jens Stoltenberg says the rules on using Western weapons should be eased
Nato secretaries-general do not normally attack the policies of the alliance’s biggest and most important member country. But Jens Stoltenberg, whose ten-year stint in charge is coming to an end, has done just that. In an interview with The Economist on May 24th, he called on nato allies supplying weapons to Ukraine to end their prohibition on using them to strike military targets in Russia. Mr Stoltenberg’s clear, if unnamed, target was the policy maintained by Joe Biden, America’s president, of controlling what Ukraine can and cannot attack with American-supplied systems.
Jens Stoltenberg says the rules on using Western weapons should be eased
Nato secretaries-general do not normally attack the policies of the alliance’s biggest and most important member country. But Jens Stoltenberg, whose ten-year stint in charge is coming to an end, has done just that. In an interview with The Economist on May 24th, he called on nato allies supplying weapons to Ukraine to end their prohibition on using them to strike military targets in Russia. Mr Stoltenberg’s clear, if unnamed, target was the policy maintained by Joe Biden, America’s president, of controlling what Ukraine can and cannot attack with American-supplied systems.
Posted on 5/24/24 at 6:42 pm to FutureCorridor49
quote:
Checked in this thread for the first time in a couple months only to find this dude is off his meds and posting again.
The Azov are Nazis. This is a fact. If you root for Azov, you are rooting for Nazis.
Posted on 5/24/24 at 6:57 pm to cypher
Europe always has a lot of great ideas for ways and means to spend US taxpayer money
Posted on 5/24/24 at 7:17 pm to GOP_Tiger
Posted on 5/24/24 at 7:31 pm to cypher
quote:
Mr Stoltenberg’s clear, if unnamed, target was the policy maintained by Joe Biden, America’s president, of controlling what Ukraine can and cannot attack with American-supplied systems.
Even he knows Dementia Joe is a complete and utter failure.
Posted on 5/24/24 at 9:34 pm to AU86
ISW Update
quote:
Key Takeaways:
Western media continues to report that Russian President Vladimir Putin is interested in a negotiated ceasefire in Ukraine, although Kremlin rhetoric and Russian military actions illustrate that Putin remains uninterested in meaningful negotiations and any settlement that would prevent him from pursuing the destruction of an independent Ukrainian state.
Russian sources that have spoken to Western media have also offered mutually contradictory characterizations of Putin's stance on negotiations.
These Russian sources notably highlighted territorial concessions as part of Putin's alleged envisioned ceasefire but have sparsely addressed the wider strategic objectives of Putin's war in Ukraine.
A ceasefire does not preclude Russia from resuming its offensive campaign to destroy Ukrainian statehood, and Russia would use any ceasefire to prepare for future offensive operations within Ukraine.
Russia is currently preparing for the possibility of a conventional war with NATO, and the Kremlin will likely view anything short of Ukrainian capitulation as an existential threat to Russia's ability to fight such a war.
The Kremlin will continue to feign interest in negotiations at critical moments in the war to influence Western decision-making on support for Ukraine and to continue efforts to extract preemptive concessions from the West.
Putin directly rejected Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's legitimacy as president on May 24, the latest in a series of efforts to dismiss Zelensky's authority to engage in or reject negotiations with Russia and undermine Ukrainians' trust in Zelensky.
Unnamed Russian government officials and sources within the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) and the Kremlin told the independent Russian outlet The Moscow Times that the ongoing effort to remove senior Russian defense officials and uniformed commanding officers will likely continue in the coming weeks and months.
Ukrainian forces conducted a series of successful missile strikes against military targets in Russian-occupied Ukraine on May 23 and 24.
Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted a drone strike against a Russian early warning radar system in Krasnodar Krai, Russia on the morning of May 23.
The Ukrainian military command continues to address Ukraine's manpower challenges.
The US Department of Defense (DoD) announced a military assistance package worth $275 million on May 24 to help Ukrainian forces repel Russian offensive operations in northern Kharkiv Oblast.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg stated on May 24 that NATO member states should consider lifting restrictions on Ukraine's use of Western-provided weapons to strike military targets in Russia.
Russian forces recently advanced near Vovchansk, Svatove, Kreminna, and Donetsk City.
The Financial Times (FT) reported on May 23 that Ukrainian National Security and Defense Council Secretary Oleksandr Lytvynenko stated that Russia recruited more than 385,000 military personnel in 2023.
Posted on 5/24/24 at 11:20 pm to StormyMcMan
20% of Ukranians have answered with their feet and left the country rather than be conscripted and slaughtered on the front lines while cargo pants dances to blinken playing the guitar in one of his discos, while discussing what villa he will buy next with US taxpayer dollars.
Russia offers peace and some of you aholes want the killing to continue.
And somehow believe Ukraine has a negotiating leg to stand on. They have pissed away half the 61 billion and it hasnt even gotten there yet. And it wont make a difference, neither will a handful of f-16s. Its over, its well over. And we have pissed away 200 billion dollars on this nonsense.
Give to Mother Russia what is Mother Russia's and stop this . charade.
Russia offers peace and some of you aholes want the killing to continue.
And somehow believe Ukraine has a negotiating leg to stand on. They have pissed away half the 61 billion and it hasnt even gotten there yet. And it wont make a difference, neither will a handful of f-16s. Its over, its well over. And we have pissed away 200 billion dollars on this nonsense.
Give to Mother Russia what is Mother Russia's and stop this . charade.
Posted on 5/24/24 at 11:29 pm to trinidadtiger
Sober up, you are rapidly becoming the worst poster in this thread, and that says a lot.
Btw, your 48 hour prediction passed long ago and the only thing that got surrounded was Hoover, Alabama and that was by Tiger fans taking over.
Btw, your 48 hour prediction passed long ago and the only thing that got surrounded was Hoover, Alabama and that was by Tiger fans taking over.
Posted on 5/25/24 at 5:22 am to trinidadtiger
quote:
Give to Mother Russia what is Mother Russia's and stop this . charade.
And we're supposed to believe that you aren't Russian?
Posted on 5/25/24 at 5:41 am to trinidadtiger
Or and just hear me out, let’s bleed Russia blue/white until they are back in 1991. Your posts smell like Manicou on fire.
Posted on 5/25/24 at 5:49 am to doubleb
You are laughable. Russia has taken a good portion of the country. 20% of Ukraine has left, 100s of thousands more are dead or wounded. The destruction is approaching half a trillion dollars. Their economy is a disaster (though the prognosticators love to throw in the 100s of billions in US support as part of their GDP).
Yet you somehow believe Russia is "on the verge of collapse". Its laughable, truly laughable.
And yet you condone the continued slaughter of humans on both sides. Russia is offering an end to it, the ball is in the US court, they started it and they can end it.
Yet you somehow believe Russia is "on the verge of collapse". Its laughable, truly laughable.
And yet you condone the continued slaughter of humans on both sides. Russia is offering an end to it, the ball is in the US court, they started it and they can end it.
Posted on 5/25/24 at 5:52 am to GOP_Tiger
quote:
And we're supposed to believe that you aren't Russian?
Im an American taxpayer.....are you?
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