re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

I think that today's story from Reuters marks a turning point in the war. It's an acknowledgment from Putin that the strategic tide is turning against him, regardless of whether Russian troops manage to capture another couple of Ukrainian farms in the next few weeks.

These, I think, are the factors that Putin is considering:


1) The financial inability for Russia to continue this war for more than another 9-12 months,

2) The fact that another big mobilization would cause serious harm to the Russian economy and hasten the financial collapse,

3) The looming military crisis when Russia no longer has armored vehicles that it can pull out of storage and efficiently refurbish, which I think happens in 6-9 months,

4) The fact that ATACMS, etc. are systematically removing air defense and Russian ships from Crimea. Long-term, Russia will struggle to maintain military control of Crimea,

5) The fact that the Kharkiv incursion is leading the West to reconsider its policies for weapons use inside Russia,

6) The impending arrival of F-16s in Ukraine,

7) The growing Ukrainian defense industry, with Ukrainian drones now increasingly a strategic threat,

8) The upcoming "peace summit" in Switzerland next month, where much of the world will commit to support Ukraine in the restoration of its borders,

9) The G7 meeting next month, where G7 leaders will advance Ukraine $50 billion as an advance on the profits from the investment of seized Russian assets,

10) The arrival of ammo from the US (and, to a lesser extent, from the Czech initiative), restoring the ability of Ukraine to lessen the fires disparity along the front,

11) The successful implementation of the new Ukrainian mobilization law, ensuring that Ukraine will have the troops needed to fight for a long time to come,

12) The deepening Russian dependence on China, with Xi exerting a growing influence over the Russian economy.


In my opinion, Putin has looked at the strategic situation and finally concluded that the war is not going to continue to go his way. This is the first time that Putin has started looking for an exit ramp.

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When people post easily discredited Russian propaganda, I shouldn't call them stupid?

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You don't have the capacity to evaluate anything, so no I wouldn't advise it.

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But I believe you are right to a certain extent. What Putin really wants is a timeout. He got one after taking Crimea and parts of the Donbas after the 2014 invasion. He needs another to retool, get his economy back on track and to get the West off his arse.

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To me it feels like if Russia really has aims on capturing any more than they currently have (which I think they would do if it were easily done, but that ultimately isn't their tactical objective) they probably need to do it now.

I don't see Ukraine agreeing to neuter itself militarily. Ukraine probably gets in the EU or at least gets some special status with it, and this allows Ukraine to build their base defenses back up and the west as a whole to expand its manufacturing capabilities and further aid Ukraine against any future threat.

Putin is probably gone by the time they would be capable enough to try again.

I guess thats a long winded way of saying they have what they want and will be able to get most of what they want via any deal, and any fighting now is too high of a cost for too little gain (this is really true for both sides).

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I don't see Ukraine agreeing to neuter itself militarily. Ukraine probably gets in the EU or at least gets some special status with it, and this allows Ukraine to build their base defenses back up and the west as a whole to expand its manufacturing capabilities and further aid Ukraine against any future threat.

Putin is probably gone by the time they would be capable enough to try again.

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This is exactly what that guy a couple weeks ago was saying that you accused of being short sighted.

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" It is likely that Gerasimov will not hold his position for long. And the scheme of his removal will be identical to that of Shoigu. First, criminal cases against his deputies (which is already happening) and his inner circle and then "honorable retirement". What will happen next, by the way, with Shoigu and Gerasimov is still a question. The "Prigozhin case" is quite likely. Quite in the spirit of Putin."

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Any insight into who Putin is trying to replace them with? Competent, or apparatchiks?

What does he think he gains?

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I said a couple of weeks ago that there would be a peace deal, and called someone short sided for saying Russia wouldn't also build itself back up and likely end up being a better military than they are now in the future because they wouldn't be pulling 60yo equipment out of storage to retrofit.

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So if GOPTiger is correct and Russia is on the edge, its economy is in the crapper, and its running out of equipment; Russia’s military is going to be better?

You are overlooking a huge problem. Russian corruption. They are corrupted and inefficient. Have they ever demonstrated a strong military without massive aid from the West?

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Exclusive: Putin wants Ukraine ceasefire on current frontlines

Only newsworthy if Putin is willing to concede on Ukrainian military / Ukrainian sovereignty.

As soon as Russia accepts that Ukraine can maintain its military, join EU, etc, there's no reason not to accept a formal peace.

... and then you roll a bunch of NATO armies into Ukraine and keep them there for the next 10 years so Putin doesn't get any silly ideas.

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It still sends the message to the international community that you can seize part of a sovereign nation and get away with it...

So like, if a neighboring state has an oil rich region and you have bigger military, just invade that one region saying you're nervous about your defense and that makes you not so nervous.

I also don't trust Putin one bit, of course... he knows now that the West is united against him and have found ways to "Trump-proof" aid to Ukraine he can't win... he actually will lose everything... so to save his own neck he'll call things off... for now. He still is in a shite spot with a demographic collapse that will cause his country to fall apart in the coming decade... he'll regroup, rebuild, and try something else...

I also think Xi probably told him he was running out of patience for this shite and it was causing too much trouble.

Also, this means Iran benefits from Russia not being too distracted to help them cause trouble in the Middle-East

[quote]Its undoubtedly an issue, but I think you're overrating the problem somewhat because of how corrupt and inefficient the USSR was. And part of my take was also involving Putin's eventual successor, and theres really no telling how corrupt Russia will be under whoever it is and how much of a hindrance to military buildup they will be.[/quote

You don’t think it hadn’t been a major issue in this war?

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You don’t think it hadn’t been a major issue in this war?

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ts undoubtedly an issue

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???????