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Message
re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 5/22/24 at 2:49 pm to Darth_Vader
Posted on 5/22/24 at 2:49 pm to Darth_Vader
quote:
Noting a Russian breakthrough to the village of Lyptsi and entry into Vovchansk, the post adds, "the bad thing is that every day if becomes more and more difficult." Russian forces faced Ukraine's "massive artillery fire" combined with drones and reserve troops.
After observing roads in the area, WarGonzo said that Ukrainian forces were "not knocked out and have begun to hit back," and that "now the numerical superiority...is on the enemy's side."
Girken was thrown in prison for 4+ years because he dared to speak up about the Russian war effort failing.
WarGonzo is far more optimistic than Girken was. If WarGonozo is willing to say things aren't looking good, you had better believe it's not looking good
quote:
This Russian blogger quoted by Newsweek is claiming Ukrainian forces are establishing both numerical and fires superiority in the Kharkiv region. If true, this would be a significant development. But of course, as is the case with all reports on this war, this report must be taken with a rather substantial grain of salt.
155mm artillery platforms are superior to 152mm artillery platforms. When Ukraine can fire at a 1:4 ratio, they crush Russian equipment.
The 155mm weapons are more accurate and have better range. They can destroy Russian equipment at a distance that Russian equipment doesn't threaten them.
I remember some of our 'friends' in this thread laughing at me saying that all Ukraine needed was 155mm shells. Doesn't sound like WarGonzo is laughing, though.
2
Posted on 5/22/24 at 3:24 pm to RuLSU
quote:
all Ukraine needed was 155mm shells
All they needed to do what?
If its "change the ultimate outcome" I'm laughing. If its to "potentially make the outcome better for Ukraine" then I would agree
Posted on 5/22/24 at 3:31 pm to VolSquatch
quote:
If its "change the ultimate outcome" I'm laughing. If its to "potentially make the outcome better for Ukraine" then I would agree
You aren’t making sense. If 155 mm shells can improve the outcome for Ukraine then why can’t it also change the ultimate outcome?
Posted on 5/22/24 at 3:37 pm to doubleb
quote:
You aren’t making sense. If 155 mm shells can improve the outcome for Ukraine then why can’t it also change the ultimate outcome?
I don't think they are going to make Ukraine win and get their land back (which is their publicly stated goal).
155s could make an eventual deal where they give up land better than it would have otherwise been for Ukraine. But if the bar is "Anything less than all of our land back is a loss" then its still a loss.
Ultimate outcome (W/L) vs specifics of that outcome
This post was edited on 5/22/24 at 3:48 pm
Posted on 5/22/24 at 3:51 pm to VolSquatch
quote:
I don't think they are going to make Ukraine win and get their land back (which is their publicly stated goal).
I don’t think they are either.
quote:
155s could make an eventual deal where they give up land better than it would have otherwise been for Ukraine. But if the bar is "Anything less than all of our land back is a loss" then its still a loss.
I disagree. If Ukraine prevents Russia from taking much more than they have already and they preserve their independence, and get in the EU then it’s a big win.
Two years and three months of war and Ukraine is still putting up a stiff defense, and punishing Russia. I assumed in two months Rusdia was going to steamroll Ukraine. The fact that Russia couldn’t quickly finish off Ukraine shocked me.
Posted on 5/22/24 at 4:09 pm to doubleb
Waiting for more info but a few reports that Ukraine is behind Orc lines at Vovshansk with Strykers of a motorized brigade.
Posted on 5/22/24 at 4:21 pm to CitizenK
Defense of Ukraine
@DefenceU
We did it again!
Ukrainian defenders shot down another russian Su-25 jet in the Donetsk region.
Nice job, warriors!
@DefenceU
We did it again!
Ukrainian defenders shot down another russian Su-25 jet in the Donetsk region.
Nice job, warriors!
Posted on 5/22/24 at 7:12 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
So, there is a shortage. It is also temporary. Russia's offensive was timed to take advantage of a temporary weakness as Ukraine was short ammo and men. Now, they aren't short ammo, and soon they won't be short men.
Ammo shipments from the Czech shell deal are supposed to ramp up significantly in June. IIRC it will enable Ukraine to fire around 5,000 shells per day which more than double what they currently can fire. Since Ukraine is on the defensive "the experts" believe that is going to negate Russia's shell advantage since defending is traditionally cheaper than attacking. "The experts" were saying that the goal of the offensive was to capture as much territory as possible before the shortages end.
Posted on 5/22/24 at 7:28 pm to WeeWee
quote:
Ammo shipments from the Czech shell deal are supposed to ramp up significantly in June. IIRC it will enable Ukraine to fire around 5,000 shells per day which more than double what they currently can fire. Since Ukraine is on the defensive "the experts" believe that is going to negate Russia's shell advantage since defending is traditionally cheaper than attacking. "The experts" were saying that the goal of the offensive was to capture as much territory as possible before the shortages end.
Western counter battery fire is precise and deadly. It was reported that some Ukraine crews weren't shooting and scooting because the Russian counter battery fire posed little threat.
Posted on 5/22/24 at 8:28 pm to CitizenK
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here. So far, this appears to be the only video, so take it with a dose of skepticism until additional footage shows up.
This post was edited on 5/22/24 at 8:35 pm
Posted on 5/22/24 at 8:29 pm to Chromdome35
Posted on 5/22/24 at 8:29 pm to Auburn1968
quote:
It was reported that some Ukraine crews weren't shooting and scooting because the Russian counter battery fire posed little threat.
"Shoot and scoot" was the doctrine at the beginning of the war. It's not the doctrine for either side now.
As soon as the "scooting" starts, the enemy drone sees it and attacks. It's so much easier to see movement. The best artillery practice now is to use some camo, shoot, and stay hidden. Counter-battery fire is of less risk than drone attack.
Posted on 5/22/24 at 8:47 pm to GOP_Tiger
Colby Badhwar
@ColbyBadhwar
EXCLUSIVE FROM NYT: After a sobering trip to Kyiv, Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken is urging the President to lift restrictions on how Ukraine can use American arms.
@ColbyBadhwar
EXCLUSIVE FROM NYT: After a sobering trip to Kyiv, Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken is urging the President to lift restrictions on how Ukraine can use American arms.
This post was edited on 5/22/24 at 8:48 pm
Posted on 5/22/24 at 8:50 pm to RuLSU
quote:
155mm artillery platforms are superior to 152mm artillery platforms. When Ukraine can fire at a 1:4 ratio, they crush Russian equipment.
I know a thing or two about these 155mm artillery platforms you mentioned…
(I transitioned with my armor unit to field artillery my last few years in the Guard)
Posted on 5/22/24 at 10:07 pm to cypher
With Russia asserting fresh territorial claims in the Baltics and Scandinavia, it's already a world war. Playing nice with Putin has only emboldened him. The only way to keep this from escalating further is to teach him a hard, painful lesson now.
This post was edited on 5/22/24 at 11:19 pm
Posted on 5/23/24 at 12:18 am to Jim Rockford
X post by Emil Kashelmi
Here in Finland, the last 24 hours have been geopolitically unusual.
Reports from Russia suggested a unilateral desire to modify their maritime borders in the Gulf of Finland and near Kaliningrad. The Finnish government learned about this through the media.
The government tried to get more information, as the Russians didn't inform Finland.
Suddenly, Russia reversed its previous stance, and there was no more ambitions to check or move the borders. The Finnish politicians assured that there's no drama involved. However...
This incident needs to be put into context. Why did Russia suddenly do this?
Russia is a dictatorship that views Finland as a hostile country. In the recent years, it has conducted several operations against Finland, aiming to undermine security or societal functions.
Examples of Russian attacks against Finland include hybrid operations using weaponized migration at the border, presumed destruction of critical energy infrastructure in the Baltic Sea, electronic warfare like GPS jamming, and various cyber-attacks.
Changes to the boundaries of maritime areas are not exceptional per se, they were last made between Finland and Russia in 2017.
However, this time, there are good reasons to interpret Russian actions primarily as provocations.
Russia did not inform Finnish leadership or authorities of its plans in any way. This was done most likely because Russia wanted to see how Finland reacts. Russia did not publish additional information of its goals, even though such a sensitive issue would have required it.
Confusion was maintained on purpose.
Russia could have published maps and coordinates of the border changes it planned, but they let the unclear situation continue. Without further explanation, the officials then removed the documents about the subject from the web.
Overall, this was not ordinary diplomatic interaction but deliberate provocation, a calculated maneuver.
Perhaps Russia wanted to signal that it does not fear the West, and that Nato membership doesn't mean a country is safe from arbitrary territorial demands.
The West can indeed be seen as weak. In Ukraine, the West repeatedly bows to Russia's red lines and is willing to indirectly sacrifice tens of thousands of Ukrainian soldiers out of fear of escalation. The Kremlin laughs at the cowards and escalates further elsewhere.
Russia constantly wants to test the Western boundaries. It is interested in how far it can push the provocations and how the West reacts to this. Metaphorically, it's about seeing how deep it can push the bayonet before hitting steel.
Steel could be offered to Russia currently in Ukraine. Actions in Ukraine affects how Russia sees the West in other areas too. However, the West has chosen a path where it is still debating whether Western long-range weapons can be used to strike Russian territory.
To defeat the armed forces of Russia, Ukraine would need Western soldiers on its soil, but but this idea alone causes confused and unclear positions from politicians.
If an aggressive dictatorship didn’t occasionally slap such an opponent in the face, it would be a wonder.
Some peculiar comments emerged from the maritime border issue.
For example, the Chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee, Kimmo Kiljunen, said that it cannot be in Russia's interest to acquire a troublesome NATO neighbor instead of a good neighborly relationship.
He is talking about the same Russia for whose hostile actions a new border law is being drafted.
Many politicians said that decisions are only made on the basis of facts, and more info is needed. This was apparently meant to be a reassuring statement. In reality it wasn't.
The absence of facts and information, especially in this context, is not a normal situation, but a deliberate act of Russia. It's an effort to control the information space and cause further confusion. The politicians should understand this.
And how did Russia comment on this?
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov denied to that the maritime border project was political but noted that "the increased level of tension and confrontation requires appropriate actions by Russia to ensure security"
Russia doesn't have any immediate tools to go further with this. It seems they got the reaction and didn't continue with further claims.
However, I'm certain they will try other provocations in the future.
Here in Finland, the last 24 hours have been geopolitically unusual.
Reports from Russia suggested a unilateral desire to modify their maritime borders in the Gulf of Finland and near Kaliningrad. The Finnish government learned about this through the media.
The government tried to get more information, as the Russians didn't inform Finland.
Suddenly, Russia reversed its previous stance, and there was no more ambitions to check or move the borders. The Finnish politicians assured that there's no drama involved. However...
This incident needs to be put into context. Why did Russia suddenly do this?
Russia is a dictatorship that views Finland as a hostile country. In the recent years, it has conducted several operations against Finland, aiming to undermine security or societal functions.
Examples of Russian attacks against Finland include hybrid operations using weaponized migration at the border, presumed destruction of critical energy infrastructure in the Baltic Sea, electronic warfare like GPS jamming, and various cyber-attacks.
Changes to the boundaries of maritime areas are not exceptional per se, they were last made between Finland and Russia in 2017.
However, this time, there are good reasons to interpret Russian actions primarily as provocations.
Russia did not inform Finnish leadership or authorities of its plans in any way. This was done most likely because Russia wanted to see how Finland reacts. Russia did not publish additional information of its goals, even though such a sensitive issue would have required it.
Confusion was maintained on purpose.
Russia could have published maps and coordinates of the border changes it planned, but they let the unclear situation continue. Without further explanation, the officials then removed the documents about the subject from the web.
Overall, this was not ordinary diplomatic interaction but deliberate provocation, a calculated maneuver.
Perhaps Russia wanted to signal that it does not fear the West, and that Nato membership doesn't mean a country is safe from arbitrary territorial demands.
The West can indeed be seen as weak. In Ukraine, the West repeatedly bows to Russia's red lines and is willing to indirectly sacrifice tens of thousands of Ukrainian soldiers out of fear of escalation. The Kremlin laughs at the cowards and escalates further elsewhere.
Russia constantly wants to test the Western boundaries. It is interested in how far it can push the provocations and how the West reacts to this. Metaphorically, it's about seeing how deep it can push the bayonet before hitting steel.
Steel could be offered to Russia currently in Ukraine. Actions in Ukraine affects how Russia sees the West in other areas too. However, the West has chosen a path where it is still debating whether Western long-range weapons can be used to strike Russian territory.
To defeat the armed forces of Russia, Ukraine would need Western soldiers on its soil, but but this idea alone causes confused and unclear positions from politicians.
If an aggressive dictatorship didn’t occasionally slap such an opponent in the face, it would be a wonder.
Some peculiar comments emerged from the maritime border issue.
For example, the Chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee, Kimmo Kiljunen, said that it cannot be in Russia's interest to acquire a troublesome NATO neighbor instead of a good neighborly relationship.
He is talking about the same Russia for whose hostile actions a new border law is being drafted.
Many politicians said that decisions are only made on the basis of facts, and more info is needed. This was apparently meant to be a reassuring statement. In reality it wasn't.
The absence of facts and information, especially in this context, is not a normal situation, but a deliberate act of Russia. It's an effort to control the information space and cause further confusion. The politicians should understand this.
And how did Russia comment on this?
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov denied to that the maritime border project was political but noted that "the increased level of tension and confrontation requires appropriate actions by Russia to ensure security"
Russia doesn't have any immediate tools to go further with this. It seems they got the reaction and didn't continue with further claims.
However, I'm certain they will try other provocations in the future.
Posted on 5/23/24 at 5:06 am to Lee B
Deputy Chief of the General Staff, Head of the Main Communications Directorate of the Russian Armed Forces, Lieutenant General Vadim Shamarin was arrested for taking a very large bribe.
EDIT: and he's a top aide to Gerasimov.
EDIT: and he's a top aide to Gerasimov.
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here.This post was edited on 5/23/24 at 5:11 am
Posted on 5/23/24 at 5:21 am to GOP_Tiger
British Defence Intelligence
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 23 May 2024
On 19 May 2024, Ukrainian forces conducted a coordinated long-range attack on the Russian port of Sevastopol. The attack, which highly likely included a combination of one-way attack drones and Army Tactical missile system (ATACM) missiles almost certainly resulted in the sinking of the KARAKURT-Class Corvette 'TSIKLON'.
'TSIKLON' is one of four Russian KALIBR-capable KARAKURT-Class vessels that have operated in the Black Sea since 2022. Two of these vessels have likely been transferred to the Caspian Sea to complete sea trials safely following a series of successful Ukrainian attacks. The fourth vessel of the group was previously heavily damaged in a Ukrainian attack in November 2023.
Although this is unlikely to significantly change the impact the Russian Navy is having on Ukrainian operations, it does highlight a continued danger to Russian forces operating in the Crimea and Black Sea region and continued Ukrainian success when conducting coordinated strikes.
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 23 May 2024
On 19 May 2024, Ukrainian forces conducted a coordinated long-range attack on the Russian port of Sevastopol. The attack, which highly likely included a combination of one-way attack drones and Army Tactical missile system (ATACM) missiles almost certainly resulted in the sinking of the KARAKURT-Class Corvette 'TSIKLON'.
'TSIKLON' is one of four Russian KALIBR-capable KARAKURT-Class vessels that have operated in the Black Sea since 2022. Two of these vessels have likely been transferred to the Caspian Sea to complete sea trials safely following a series of successful Ukrainian attacks. The fourth vessel of the group was previously heavily damaged in a Ukrainian attack in November 2023.
Although this is unlikely to significantly change the impact the Russian Navy is having on Ukrainian operations, it does highlight a continued danger to Russian forces operating in the Crimea and Black Sea region and continued Ukrainian success when conducting coordinated strikes.
Posted on 5/23/24 at 5:25 am to GOP_Tiger
I have been thinking about this myself. There's no way that Russia can continue to incur the losses that they are facing, without another big mobilization. Emphasis below is mine:
Financial Times
Financial Times
quote:
For Moscow to maintain its upper hand on the battlefield, however, it may soon need to go beyond its creative recruitment strategies, according to a person close to the Russian defence establishment.
“The government can keep riding on this system for a while,” the person said, but “by the end of this year, or early next year, a new partial mobilisation wave will become inevitable”.
As long as the Kremlin shunned another mobilisation wave, a significant Russian offensive would not be possible this summer, the person said.
“The Russian authorities, at least for now, are still ready to sacrifice some operational successes on the front to shield the rest of society from the war,” they said.
Some regions in Russia are already struggling to meet recruitment quotas. In the Siberian city of Krasnoyarsk, one councillor said the city mainly sent “alcoholics, homeless people, abusers and convicts” to the war. He explained that only two men were recruited in February from his central district because it was a more affluent one and potential draftees lived on the fringes of the city.
Another councillor replied that the city was deploying new approaches and “starting to work with debt collectors” to get more people into the army in exchange for debt relief.
Posted on 5/23/24 at 5:35 am to Jim Rockford
quote:
With Russia asserting fresh territorial claims of n the Baltics and Scandinavia
Is this kind of like the 146 military bases the US has across the world, the various coups instigated, or the fact they use the USD to punish countries who dont believe in homosexuality, racism, or sexual mutilation of children?
The world is playing us for fools, using us to fight their wars while our own country falls apart from within.
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