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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 5/22/24 at 6:27 am to bamadontcare
Posted on 5/22/24 at 6:27 am to bamadontcare
Biden administration literally hemorrhaging on all fronts. Even his most ardent supporters Stormy McCain, GOPe_Tiger, and Lee B are waking up!
1
Posted on 5/22/24 at 6:36 am to SirWinston
quote:
SirWinston
Biden administration literally hemorrhaging on all fronts. Even his most ardent supporters Stormy McCain, GOPe_Tiger, and Lee B are waking up!
I'm a biden supporter? Also it's 6:36 AM so of course I'm waking up
Posted on 5/22/24 at 7:02 am to Darth_Vader
quote:
I know we use to. Back in my day, again I’m talking about the height of the Cold War, we would hold annual training exercises called “REFORGER”* where we did a mock war game in Germany that included forces being sent to Europe to take part in a possible war against the Soviets. The whole purpose was to ensure we had the capability to quickly move multiple divisions from the US to Europe in case of a Soviet attack. Part of this readiness was maintaining gargantuan depots of ammunition, weapons, and vehicles in Europe.
But with the end of the Cold War, all of that was scaled back. All this happened in the mid-90s, after my active duty time had ended, so I can’t say to what scale the drawdown was. But from what I’ve been told, our conventional force capabilities in Europe was severely curtailed in the 90s.
As for our NATO allies, when the Cold War ended most of them all but shutdown their military spending. The German military in particular was gutted to the point it became impotent.
Good posts, as usual.
You have to think things haven't really improved since the 90's. But maybe after Crimea in 2014 at least some of our capabilities were brought back online.
Posted on 5/22/24 at 7:04 am to StormyMcMan
Ukraine's Sea Baby maritime drones have been equipped with Grad systems – photos
VALENTYNA ROMANENKO, Alona Mazurenko — Wednesday, 22 May 2024, 10:00
Ukrainian Sea Baby maritime drones have been equipped with Grad systems. The upgraded drone has already been tested, killing Russians on the Kinburn Spit.
Source: source of Ukrainska Pravda in the Security Service of Ukraine (SSU)
Quote: "Sea Baby is not just a drone but a multifunctional platform that is constantly being improved. Today, we can confirm that they are equipped with a multiple-launch rocket system, and this technological solution is already showing powerful results. So, the enemy is in for new surprises. We are working as efficiently as ever."
Details: The source reports that on the night of 20 May, SSU Sea Baby drones, together with the Navy, effectively worked from the sea on Russian positions on the Kinburn Spit.
The source also shared photos of the Sea Baby winter tests and the drone production.
Ukrainska Pravda
VALENTYNA ROMANENKO, Alona Mazurenko — Wednesday, 22 May 2024, 10:00
Ukrainian Sea Baby maritime drones have been equipped with Grad systems. The upgraded drone has already been tested, killing Russians on the Kinburn Spit.
Source: source of Ukrainska Pravda in the Security Service of Ukraine (SSU)
Quote: "Sea Baby is not just a drone but a multifunctional platform that is constantly being improved. Today, we can confirm that they are equipped with a multiple-launch rocket system, and this technological solution is already showing powerful results. So, the enemy is in for new surprises. We are working as efficiently as ever."
Details: The source reports that on the night of 20 May, SSU Sea Baby drones, together with the Navy, effectively worked from the sea on Russian positions on the Kinburn Spit.
The source also shared photos of the Sea Baby winter tests and the drone production.
Ukrainska Pravda
Posted on 5/22/24 at 7:06 am to OMLandshark
quote:
Yes I do, and that’s the point. It’s limited in scope, will kill a shite ton of soldiers, and allow Russia’s army to bulldoze past the impact site. The US isn’t going to nuke Moscow over that.
If Russia did use a large bomb or tactical nuke, I don't think it would be to kill as many soldiers as possible because like others have said, everyone is spread out across the front and there aren't a lot of huge clumps of soldiers for them to target (partly to negate that tactic).
If it happens you're going to see them level a heavily fortified city, or to completely wipe out infrastructure, like power plants for example.
I don't know that the cost is worth the benefit for them right now though.
Posted on 5/22/24 at 7:32 am to cypher
Just watched a Russian grad bombardment on telegram. Man that's some nasty stuff. Completely saturated the whole area.
Posted on 5/22/24 at 7:41 am to StormyMcMan
According to Newsweek, Russia’s offensive toward Kharkiv is “faltering”…
Further down the article, it says this which I find particularly interesting…
Newsweek
This Russian blogger quoted by Newsweek is claiming Ukrainian forces are establishing both numerical and fires superiority in the Kharkiv region. If true, this would be a significant development. But of course, as is the case with all reports on this war, this report must be taken with a rather substantial grain of salt.
quote:
Kharkiv Map Shows Russian Offensive Falter Amid Fears of Ukraine Counter
quote:
A prominent Russian military blogger has raised concerns that Moscow is faltering in its offensive in the Kharkiv region amid high losses, which could precede a Ukrainian counterattack, as a map shows the latest state of play.
A push started on May 10 by Moscow in the northeastern Ukrainian region just over the border has seen Russian forces gain momentum, reportedly capture several settlements and enter the town of Vovchansk. Newsweek has emailed the Russian Defense Ministry for comment.
However, a Telegram post by the channel WarGonzo, which is associated with Russian special services and has more than 1 million followers, described how large losses by Moscow's forces could precede Ukrainian forces seizing the initiative.
Further down the article, it says this which I find particularly interesting…
quote:
Noting a Russian breakthrough to the village of Lyptsi and entry into Vovchansk, the post adds, "the bad thing is that every day if becomes more and more difficult." Russian forces faced Ukraine's "massive artillery fire" combined with drones and reserve troops.
After observing roads in the area, WarGonzo said that Ukrainian forces were "not knocked out and have begun to hit back," and that "now the numerical superiority...is on the enemy's side."
Newsweek
This Russian blogger quoted by Newsweek is claiming Ukrainian forces are establishing both numerical and fires superiority in the Kharkiv region. If true, this would be a significant development. But of course, as is the case with all reports on this war, this report must be taken with a rather substantial grain of salt.
Posted on 5/22/24 at 7:51 am to Darth_Vader
quote:
According to Newsweek, Russia’s offensive toward Kharkiv is “faltering”…
They didn't build up near enough men or materiel to take a city the size of Kharkiv. Especially with the few villages they've had to waste time securing (some they still havent) on the way. No way Ukraine was going to let Kharkiv fall.
Now if Ukraine is moving that superior firepower and manpower from elsewhere a ross the front and leaving those forces stretched thin, that could be very dicey and play right into what Russia wanted them to do.
Posted on 5/22/24 at 8:01 am to IAmNERD
quote:
They didn't build up near enough men or materiel to take a city the size of Kharkiv.
There would be a massive offensive if that was really the goal. People talking about it falling within 48 hours or something were wishcasting.
Posted on 5/22/24 at 8:04 am to IAmNERD
quote:
Now if Ukraine is moving that superior firepower and manpower from elsewhere a ross the front and leaving those forces stretched thin, that could be very dicey and play right into what Russia wanted them to do.
Considering the reports we’ve seen in the past months of manpower and ammunition shortages for Ukraine, I have to assume there is a good chance this is what has happened. Now the question is this; is Russia building up forces somewhere else to exploit any weaknesses in the Ukrainian line? If so, how much force does Russia have available and where will it strike?
I guess all we can do is wait and see.
Posted on 5/22/24 at 8:06 am to IAmNERD
quote:
Now if Ukraine is moving that superior firepower and manpower from elsewhere a ross the front and leaving those forces stretched thin, that could be very dicey and play right into what Russia wanted them to do.
Ukraine ended up pulling men from Chasov Yar and Zaporizhzhia. It also appears they sent brigades that were being reconstituted.
There doesn’t appear to be a reserve left
Posted on 5/22/24 at 8:15 am to Darth_Vader
quote:
According to Newsweek, Russia’s offensive toward Kharkiv is “faltering”…
Topography matters, Vovchansk is in a valley where Russians have to go down a ridge to it, and Ukrainian positions on the opposite ridge to the south able to defend it. The small river is on the south side of the town.
It is high ground from the border to the town. Russia has taken ground from the border along elevations in its northern offensive. Mostly high ground but some low flat ground which is on both side of the border.
Posted on 5/22/24 at 8:18 am to Lima Whiskey
quote:
There doesn’t appear to be a reserve left
You keep saying that. This is at least the third post where you've said Ukraine has no reserves left.
So the Russians are on the verge of a major breakthrough? Kiev by July? War should be over soon?
Posted on 5/22/24 at 8:19 am to Lima Whiskey
quote:
Ukraine ended up pulling men from Chasov Yar
Sure they did.
Posted on 5/22/24 at 8:26 am to StormyMcMan
In the twitter embed of the train, right at the beginning of the video, the two armored vehicles are BRDM-2's. That vehicle first entered service with the Russian Army in 1962.
quote:
The BRDM-2 has a unique flaw. Because the only way in and out of the vehicle is via the front hatches, leaving the vehicle while in combat is almost impossible, as the exiting crew members would instantly enter the line of fire of both the enemy and their own vehicle, as hatches are positioned directly in front of the turret.
This post was edited on 5/22/24 at 8:30 am
Posted on 5/22/24 at 8:29 am to StormyMcMan
quote:
Also it's 6:36 AM so of course I'm waking up
Most Biden supporters don’t get up that early. You’re clean.
Posted on 5/22/24 at 8:34 am to doubleb
British Defence Intelligence
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 22 May 2024
In April 2024, Ukraine exported the highest volume of grain and oilseed since the outbreak of war, reaching 6.6 million tonnes. This demonstrates Ukraine's ability to export unilaterally via its shipping corridor in the Black Sea. Throughput at the Black Sea ports have almost certainly reached a monthly export volume higher than any other point in the conflict, including that achieved under the Black Sea Grain Initiative (BSGI). Approximately 5.2 million tonnes out of the total grain and oilseed exports in April 2024 departed from Ukraine's Black Sea ports, compared to a peak of 4.2 million tonnes under the BSGI in October 2022.
Ukraine's maritime corridor has enabled around 1,600 transits by vessels and exports of a total of 45 million tonnes of cargo since its launch in August 2023. The majority of this has comprised of agricultural exports, consisting of more than 30 million tonnes in the 9-month period. The remainder is primarily iron ore and steel products, which previously was unable to be exported by sea during the BSGI. Overall, this will support Ukraine's economic recovery in 2024.
Shipping from Ukraine is highly likely vital for global food security, with Ukraine's grain exports likely to be around 9.7% of global grain exports between July 2023 and June 2024. While agricultural exports are almost certainly dependent on the Black Sea ports, representing around 78% in volume, other routes remain in use. Ukraine continues to export grain and oilseeds via the Danube River at around 15% by volume, rail at around 6% by volume, and road at under 1% by volume.
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 22 May 2024
In April 2024, Ukraine exported the highest volume of grain and oilseed since the outbreak of war, reaching 6.6 million tonnes. This demonstrates Ukraine's ability to export unilaterally via its shipping corridor in the Black Sea. Throughput at the Black Sea ports have almost certainly reached a monthly export volume higher than any other point in the conflict, including that achieved under the Black Sea Grain Initiative (BSGI). Approximately 5.2 million tonnes out of the total grain and oilseed exports in April 2024 departed from Ukraine's Black Sea ports, compared to a peak of 4.2 million tonnes under the BSGI in October 2022.
Ukraine's maritime corridor has enabled around 1,600 transits by vessels and exports of a total of 45 million tonnes of cargo since its launch in August 2023. The majority of this has comprised of agricultural exports, consisting of more than 30 million tonnes in the 9-month period. The remainder is primarily iron ore and steel products, which previously was unable to be exported by sea during the BSGI. Overall, this will support Ukraine's economic recovery in 2024.
Shipping from Ukraine is highly likely vital for global food security, with Ukraine's grain exports likely to be around 9.7% of global grain exports between July 2023 and June 2024. While agricultural exports are almost certainly dependent on the Black Sea ports, representing around 78% in volume, other routes remain in use. Ukraine continues to export grain and oilseeds via the Danube River at around 15% by volume, rail at around 6% by volume, and road at under 1% by volume.
Posted on 5/22/24 at 8:43 am to Lima Whiskey
quote:
Ukraine ended up pulling men from Chasov Yar and Zaporizhzhia. It also appears they sent brigades that were being reconstituted.
There doesn’t appear to be a reserve left
If true, that doesn’t bode well for Ukraine.
Posted on 5/22/24 at 8:57 am to Darth_Vader
UK Defence Secretary claims evidence of China delivering weapons to Russia
Khrystyna Bondarieva , Alona Mazurenko — Wednesday, 22 May 2024, 15:06
UK Defence Secretary Grant Shapps on Wednesday accused China of providing or preparing to provide lethal weaponry to Russia for use in the war against Ukraine.
Source: Reuters, citing Shapps, as reported by European Pravda
Shapps stated at a conference in London that American and British military intelligence have evidence that "lethal aid is now, or will be, flowing from China to Russia and into Ukraine."
The minister said that "it is a significant development".
Quote: "We should be concerned about that because in the earlier days of this war China would like to present itself as a moderating influence on Russian President Vladimir Putin," he added.
Shapps also noted that "we have evidence that Russia and China are collaborating on combat equipment for use in Ukraine."
"As we saw from Putin’s state visit to Beijing and the 64% growth in trade between Russia and China since the full-scale invasion…they’re covering each other’s back," the British minister said.
Ukrainska Pravda
Khrystyna Bondarieva , Alona Mazurenko — Wednesday, 22 May 2024, 15:06
UK Defence Secretary Grant Shapps on Wednesday accused China of providing or preparing to provide lethal weaponry to Russia for use in the war against Ukraine.
Source: Reuters, citing Shapps, as reported by European Pravda
Shapps stated at a conference in London that American and British military intelligence have evidence that "lethal aid is now, or will be, flowing from China to Russia and into Ukraine."
The minister said that "it is a significant development".
Quote: "We should be concerned about that because in the earlier days of this war China would like to present itself as a moderating influence on Russian President Vladimir Putin," he added.
Shapps also noted that "we have evidence that Russia and China are collaborating on combat equipment for use in Ukraine."
"As we saw from Putin’s state visit to Beijing and the 64% growth in trade between Russia and China since the full-scale invasion…they’re covering each other’s back," the British minister said.
Ukrainska Pravda
Posted on 5/22/24 at 8:59 am to cypher
quote:
UK Defence Secretary Grant Shapps on Wednesday accused China of providing or preparing to provide lethal weaponry to Russia for use in the war against Ukraine.
Source: Reuters, citing Shapps, as reported by European Pravda
Shapps stated at a conference in London that American and British military intelligence have evidence that "lethal aid is now, or will be, flowing from China to Russia and into Ukraine."
The minister said that "it is a significant development".
Quote: "We should be concerned about that because in the earlier days of this war China would like to present itself as a moderating influence on Russian President Vladimir Putin," he added.
Shapps also noted that "we have evidence that Russia and China are collaborating on combat equipment for use in Ukraine."
"As we saw from Putin’s state visit to Beijing and the 64% growth in trade between Russia and China since the full-scale invasion…they’re covering each other’s back," the British minister said.
"Russia has 1 year before they start running out of everything"
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