re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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The Army is not adapting, and for the normal bureaucratic reasons.

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And we know our military isn’t adapting because????

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Looking at drones on Amazon for quads to octocopters, prices range from under $100 to under $1000.

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The racing FPV drones used over there tend to run around $1000-2000 to get in the door. I'm guessing they would be using a model with guards on the blades, and it would have to be pretty quick.... the couple on Amazon that I priced didn't have speeds listed.

Bloomberg

Wow. It's really going to happen. I thought so, when I saw Politico report this morning that Zelensky was likely to attend the G7 meeting.

For those unaware of this development ...

The G7 countries are currently holding over $300 billion in seized Russian assets. Of that, only $8 billion is held by the US (most is in Europe), but the bill that Congress passed and Biden signed last month was the provision that the $8 billion should go to Ukraine. Again, this is Russian money, not US taxpayer dollars.

But our European allies have been very skittish about directly sending seized Russian assets to Ukraine. The EU did, however, recently agree to invest that money and start sending the interest to Ukraine, which would be some $5 billion per year.

While that is nice, the Biden administration has now apparently succeeded in persuading the G7 to essentially give Ukraine a multi-year advance on that interest and send Ukraine $50 billion as a lump sum.

The aid that Congress passed a month ago should last Ukraine through the end of this year. A big concern for Ukraine and its supporters has been the elections this fall, and what happens if they produce a Congress or President who don't support further aid to Ukraine.

That's where this $50 billion from the G7 comes in. It basically "election-proofs" the Ukrainian defense and will give Ukraine the ability to fight through 2025, because even a US government that doesn't want to give more aid to Ukraine will still almost certainly still sell more ammo and equipment to Ukraine.

This money would also allow Ukraine to build a lot more drones. Seriously, Ukraine will be able to substantially invest in its own domestic military production facilities, many of which are in the works but lacking the funding to start production ASAP.

This is a huge gamechanger in Ukraine's long-term prospects.

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The Group of Seven countries are converging on a US plan to squeeze value out of frozen Russian assets, a move that would secure as much as $50 billion in critical financing for Ukraine and help shield it from political shifts on both sides of the Atlantic.

Officials familiar with the discussions say G-7 governments are all now broadly supportive of a US proposal to leverage future revenue generated from about $280 billion in Russian central bank funds — most of which lies immobilized in Europe — to back the massive loan to Kyiv.

Finance ministers from the G-7 economies are discussing the matter during a meeting this week in Stresa, Italy, with the aim to agree on a set of options for their leaders for a final decision when they meet on June 13-15.

While the G-7 is closing in on the broad strokes of the agreement, many critical details are still being negotiated and would need to be agreed, according to the people, who asked not to be identified as the talks are private and ongoing.

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I build dozens of 4s and 6s race quads. They were all sub $400.

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Not sure what to make of this:

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Me either.

The purge of the Ministry of Defense picks up pace. The FSB is actively hunting and arresting supporters of Shoigu and Gerasimov.

The list of arrestees as of 11pm May 23:
- Lieutenant-General Yuri Kuznetsov, head of the Defence Ministry’s personnel directorate;
- Deputy Defence Minister Timur Ivanov;
- the Belarus Chief of the General Staff Viktor Gulevich;
- Ivan Popov, ex-commander of the Russian 58th army;
- Lieutenant General Vadim Shamarin, Deputy Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces;
- and just hours ago, Major General Suhrab Ahmedov, commander of the Russian 20th army.

Note that the FSB is making these arrests and the detainees are being held in the Lubyanka, the FSB prison. Not a military or civilian prison.

Some are suggesting the Russian army could mutiny against the FSB / Putinists, following the exact script of the failed coup of 1991. That probably won't happen, but you can bet the ranch that the fighting in Ukraine is the last thing the Russian military leadership is thinking about now. And this is not going to end soon. Is Putin channeling his inner Stalin in full purge mode? Can't wait to see...

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Looks like the ATACMS strike on the S-400 battery was even better than originally thought

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The cheapest estimate I have seen for the cost of the S-400 is half a billion US $.

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What will happen next, by the way, with Shoigu and Gerasimov is still a question. The "Prigozhin case" is quite likely. Quite in the spirit of Putin."

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Any of Russia's officers could be thrown in jail for corruption and it would not have to be trumped up charges, including Putin

Peacetime armies almost never do. The Germans did in the interwar period because they had just lost a war, the French, the winners, by contrast were much less innovative.

The problem from a Pentagon perspective is that, the defense contractors have corrupted the procurement process through bribery, and the contractors ultimate goal is to make money, whether the equipment works well, or is best suited to our needs, that’s not strictly relevant. It would be very difficult for someone to stop or revise a contract because circumstances have changed. There is an overwhelming incentive to do the opposite, do nothing, and not to rock the boat. But this isn’t unique, it’s normal. That’s why it’s important to fight frequently and test (in this case) your equipment in battle. You can buy and deploy a weapon system that doesn’t work. It happens fairly often. Look at the LCS, or the Defiant to use a very old example from the UK. In an actual war, that weapon system will get fixed or junked. In peacetime, that doesn’t necessarily happen.

Mr Prince mentioned something that I haven’t seen before. He said that the heat signature from a destroyed tank is enough to throw off a Javelin missile. He said the Ukranians will fire one, and then rely on other ATGMs for any additional targets in the immediate area.