re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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I keep reading where Ukraine is running low on weapons, ammo and manpower; however, reading the Newsweek article and the other report that the West is pumping out shells at a faster clip; it doesn’t seem like Russia is taking advantage of all these supposed shortcomings.

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The Russians are effectively attacking the length of the front line, and as the Ukrainians shift forces to deal with one hotspot, the Russians will focus on another. This physically exhausts Ukrainian forces, stresses their logistics, but it also exposes these units to destruction.

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When the second phase begins, the offensive should be launched across a broad front, seeking to overwhelm the enemy at multiple points using shallow attacks. The intent is to remain inside the layered bubble of friendly protective systems, while stretching depleted enemy reserves until the front collapses. There is a cascading effect in which a crisis in one sector forces the defenders to shift reserves from a second sector, only to generate a crisis there in turn. As forces start falling back and leaving prepared fortifications, morale plummets, with the obvious question: ‘If we can’t hold the mega-fortress, how can we hold these new trenches?’ Retreat then turns into rout. Only then should the offensive extend towards objectives deeper in the enemy rear.

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RUSI: The Attritional Art of War: Lessons from the Russian War on Ukraine

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I think it is down to weeks instead of months before Russia breaks through.

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I would be surprised if that happens. I think 1864 is a good comparison, the Ukrainians have a lot of the same problems that we did then.

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Both are resupplied via rail, and Russia is resorting to 50+ year old trucks for transport to the actual front. There was almost no rail in the Confederacy, and a blockade around its coast which is where the bulk of its arms had to come through to even get to it.

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wonder where the source is for that?

I keep reading where Ukraine is running low on weapons, ammo and manpower; however, reading the Newsweek article and the other report that the West is pumping out shells at a faster clip; it doesn’t seem like Russia is taking advantage of all these supposed shortcomings.

The war accelerated two years and three months ago. Much of Russia’s initial success was reversed and they have not done a whole lot since then to regain the momentum. It seems the Kharkiv offensive similar to the Ukraine counteroffensive last year is not going very far despite predictions of a pending route.

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Like everything in this war, you have to take reports like this with a grain of salt. Having said that, it’s no secret Russia’s capacity to sustain an attritional war dwarfs that of Ukraine. Russia has more of literally everything, including men, to throw into the meat grinder of this war. And in a war of attrition, this is usually the deciding factor.

Does that mean Ukraine’s position is hopeless? Not necessarily. If they can weather the storm of these Russian offensives designed to stretch Ukrainian forces to the point of collapse, and attrit Russian forces sufficiently to force Russia to abandon their attacks, it’s possible Ukraine could eventually force Russia to seek a negotiated peace. But for this to happen, they have to hold back the Russian offensives without allowing the Front to collapse long with to make Russia tire of butting their heads against an unbroken wall. Can Ukraine do this? Only time will tell.

I don’t take issue with the strategy or the facts as they are. Russia is the bigger, stronger country,

I see different reports, some positive and some negative from each side’s point of view. But I also remember the Vietnam War. Everything was in our favor; yet we lost because we didn’t bring the war to a swift conclusion.

I think the same issue could be Russia’s downfall. People bitch about how much we are spending and rightfully so, but Russia is spending way way more plus the are taking in thousands of casualties. I don’t think Russia can go forever.

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I got to turn my phone off 4 days
I jump up to Canada for that. Truly zero service. Walleye fishing isn't too different from Crappie. Larger fish than crappie. Bite c/w crappie though. (Not sheephead light, crappie r&r would work) Walleye shore lunch is special. Northern are usually the daily afternoon target.

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Well my family has a lake house in northeast Louisiana so I did not have to pay anything. I turned my phone off and only used internet to watch movies or play Playstation at night.


Has Vovchans'k fallen? The last I saw was that Russia had gained control of like 75% of it. Also the last that I saw was that Russia was not really pushing its Kharkiv invasion past 5 km from the border. If that has not changed since the last time I checked twitter (Monday night) it looks to me that Russia is more concerned with expanding a buffer area to stop raids into the Belgorod oblasts. Of course the Russian propagandist were still saying that they were going to take Kharkiv and Odessa before the end of the month but Russian propaganda lies.

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So they pull a bunch of their defenders from there and Russia still can't control it?

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They pulled some squads and platoons of SOF units from other areas to defend in the North, and a fresh out of training battalion

When the narrative was that Biden was aggressively prosecuting the Ukraine war, the GOP position was antiwar. Now that the narrative is Biden is not tough enough, the GOP goes all in on supporting Ukraine.

Hey, whatever works.

Ostap Yarysh
@OstapYarysh

Chairman of the House Foreign Affairs committee
@RepMcCaul
asks
@SecBlinken
whether the administration will lift the restrictions on how to use weapons provided to Ukraine. “They cannot achieve victory with the restrictions you placed on them.”

sending a message to Jake...

Twitter

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Ukraine ended up pulling men from Chasov Yar and Zaporizhzhia. It also appears they sent brigades that were being reconstituted.

There doesn’t appear to be a reserve left


If true, that doesn’t bode well for Ukraine.

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Ukraine has faced a manpower shortage and doesn't have much of anything in reserve right now.

That's why the new mobilization law (just implemented a week ago) was so important. Just two days ago, Ukraine announced the formation of four new infantry brigades.

So, there is a shortage. It is also temporary. Russia's offensive was timed to take advantage of a temporary weakness as Ukraine was short ammo and men. Now, they aren't short ammo, and soon they won't be short men.