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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 4/4/24 at 2:23 pm to Darth_Vader
Posted on 4/4/24 at 2:23 pm to Darth_Vader
The heavy manufacturing capacity we had during WW2 is gone. Even more impactful is the loss of the skilled workforce that heavy manufacturing requires. There is so much automation in manufacturing now that the lead time on the volume of equipment required would be decades if we could even get it, considering where a lot of it comes from these days.
2
Posted on 4/4/24 at 2:35 pm to Bunk Moreland
quote:
Makes fun of left wing media and their bias (deservedly so), yet posts left wing news to confirm their own bias.
Can't make this shite up to be any more weird.
Posted on 4/4/24 at 2:39 pm to Chromdome35
quote:
There is so much automation in manufacturing now that the lead time on the volume of equipment required would be decades if we could even get it, considering where a lot of it comes from these days.
The problem in heavy manufacturing isn't automation but many manufacturers only able to get around 50% of the welders they need. It's the common complaint everywhere.
Take the fabrication company very major industrial contractor Bay Ltd out of Texas. They had a contract to supply modules to Canada for steam injection to produce very heavy crude. They couldn't get enough US welders to make a dent even at $280 per hour with guaranteed 20 hrs per week overtime. Instead they had to import thousands of Indian and Filippino welders to their fab yard in Butte, MT. It's only gotten much much worse since 2011 with all the retiring boomers.
Posted on 4/4/24 at 2:50 pm to Darth_Vader
quote:
Sadly, I think you’re 100% correct. It would take us decades to rebuild our manufacturing base to the point it could support a major war.
95%+ of all the raw-materials for our antibiotics are sourced from China, and a huge majority of the finished product antibiotics are sourced from India…
This can be said over, and over, and over again for many other critical medicines and other goods we depend on every day, not to mention during a potential large-scale war.
We have outsourced much of our middle class in tandem with that ability to manufacture these goods, with the economic impact clear to anyone with eyes to see.
Posted on 4/4/24 at 2:57 pm to VolSquatch
quote:
VolSquatch
quote:
That was never Russia's goal. They always wanted ALL of Ukraine
Please explain why you think this was not the goal and how Russias actions reflect that.
Posted on 4/4/24 at 3:00 pm to CitizenK
quote:
Instead they had to import thousands of Indian and Filippino welders to their fab yard in Butte, MT
Butte has a population of 34,000 people. And Montana is so sparsely populated, that makes it the fifth largest city.
If the jobs come back, these communities will slowly recover and the labor shortages will ameliorate over the long term.
This post was edited on 4/4/24 at 3:04 pm
Posted on 4/4/24 at 3:01 pm to Warfox
quote:
95%+ of all the raw-materials for our antibiotics are sourced from China, and a huge majority of the finished product antibiotics are sourced from India…
This can be said over, and over, and over again for many other critical medicines and other goods we depend on every day, not to mention during a potential large-scale war.
We have outsourced much of our middle class in tandem with that ability to manufacture these goods, with the economic impact clear to anyone with eyes to see.
A lot of that was in Puerto Rico until the early 2000's. China is reaping the benefit of having all but given money to build manufacturing there and why its economy is in the toilet
Posted on 4/4/24 at 3:05 pm to Chromdome35
quote:
Even more impactful is the loss of the skilled workforce that heavy manufacturing requires
I'm not as concerned with that (during WWII we trained tons of women in short order for example) as I am about supply chains. Depending on who and where a conflict would erupt, ensuring enough raw goods to make ammunition etc would be the first and biggest hurdle IMO
On an odd side note, in WWI the brits were supplying the Germans with optics.
Or in this conflict how Russia is paying Ukraine to allow pipelines to flow over its territory to some EU countries
Posted on 4/4/24 at 3:19 pm to StormyMcMan
quote:
Please explain why you think this was not the goal and how Russias actions reflect that.
Russia doesn't give two shits about the land itself, or at least not the entirety of it. Ukraine can be its own country, they just want it to be pro Russia. A worse but similar deal to what they have now, with a different master.
Crimea, nixing NATO membership, and maybe those contested regions in the east would have ended this thing in the first couple of months. Now Russia doesn't have to settle for just that.
Do you think that if Russia were to push close enough to Kiyv to shell it that Ukraine wouldn't fold and oust Zelensky and the rest of the pro-EU, pro-US government in a peace deal?
Do you honestly think Russia wants the headache of decades of local resistance in central and eastern Ukraine, with no real strategic benefit? All that does is put NATO right on their doorstep.
I think Russia enjoys Ukraine being a buffer just as much as NATO does, they just want that buffer to be pro-Kremlin instead of pro-Washington. They don't need the land for any other reason than some Alexander the Great cosplay fantasy people project onto Putin, which is IMO a misread of who he is. He is a murderous thug who wants to bang gymnasts on his yacht, I don't think he is a murderous thug who wants to conquer the world, or even re-unite the old Soviet Union whether he says that publicly or not.
This post was edited on 4/4/24 at 3:20 pm
Posted on 4/4/24 at 3:28 pm to doubleb
quote:
Russia has fought wars for centuries trying to get access to the Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean Seas. This war had made things worse for their navy, not better.
It's made things worse for their present day existing navy, but the additional coastline they have and will continue to secure when a peace is negotiated will make things better moving forward.
This post was edited on 4/4/24 at 3:29 pm
Posted on 4/4/24 at 3:39 pm to VolSquatch
first off 
for responding
Something akin to this was offered and rejected early on
LINK
Also the deal that people tend to say was tanked by Borris Johnson was also publicly rejected by Putin because it contained security guarantees for Ukraine
I'm a little confused on the hypothetical given the march on Kyiv in early 2022 actually had Russia shelling Kyiv.
Central, yes. Eastern, no. If you aren't pro-Russian in Eastern Ukraine you've probably already left the area sometime over the last decade. And to an extent, they are already dealing with it in the lands they are currently occupying (local resistance).
Where do you see Russian saying "Ok that's enough land" as it stands today vs Feb 2022?
for responding quote:
Crimea, nixing NATO membership, and maybe those contested regions in the east would have ended this thing in the first couple of months. Now Russia doesn't have to settle for just that.
Something akin to this was offered and rejected early on
LINK
quote:
Vladimir Putin's chief envoy on Ukraine told the Russian leader as the war began that he had struck a provisional deal with Kyiv that would satisfy Russia's demand that Ukraine stay out of NATO, opens new tab, but Putin rejected it and pressed ahead with his military campaign, according to three people close to the Russian leadership....
But, despite earlier backing the negotiations, Putin made it clear when presented with Kozak's deal that the concessions negotiated by his aide did not go far enough and that he had expanded his objectives to include annexing swathes of Ukrainian territory, the sources said.
Also the deal that people tend to say was tanked by Borris Johnson was also publicly rejected by Putin because it contained security guarantees for Ukraine
quote:
Do you think that if Russia were to push close enough to Kiyv to shell it that Ukraine wouldn't fold and oust Zelensky and the rest of the pro-EU, pro-US government in a peace deal?
I'm a little confused on the hypothetical given the march on Kyiv in early 2022 actually had Russia shelling Kyiv.
quote:
Do you honestly think Russia wants the headache of decades of local resistance in central and eastern Ukraine, with no real strategic benefit?
Central, yes. Eastern, no. If you aren't pro-Russian in Eastern Ukraine you've probably already left the area sometime over the last decade. And to an extent, they are already dealing with it in the lands they are currently occupying (local resistance).
Where do you see Russian saying "Ok that's enough land" as it stands today vs Feb 2022?
Posted on 4/4/24 at 3:39 pm to VolSquatch
quote:
Ukraine can be its own country, they just want it to be pro Russia
Such a fantasy.
They've already annexed Crimea and Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.
Russia will not allow Ukraine to be a sovereign democratic country. Whatever is not annexed will be a puppet state probably similar to Belarus. It's no secret, they are saying it out loud.
This post was edited on 4/4/24 at 3:48 pm
Posted on 4/4/24 at 3:45 pm to cypher
quote:
Whatever is not annexed will be a puppet state probably similar to Belarusia. It's no secret, they are saying it out loud.
I always tend to forget about this, but Russia and Belarus actually signed a treaty to become a confederation similar to the USSR, but both countries backed away from it to some extent
quote:
The Union State,[b] or Union State of Russia and Belarus,[c] is a supranational union consisting of Belarus and Russia, with the stated aim of deepening the relationship between the two states through integration in economic and defence policy.[6][7] Originally, the Union State aimed to create a confederation; however, both countries currently retain their independence.[8]
The Union State is based on a previous international treaty between Russia and Belarus[9] made on 2 April 1997.[10] Although it consists of only Russia and Belarus, other countries are allowed to join.[7] The supranational union is ruled through the Supreme State Council[11] and other governing bodies.[12] As of 2024, the current president of the Supreme State Council of the Union is Alexander Lukashenko, who has held the position since 2000.[13] The present goal of the Union State mainly focuses on economic integration,[14] taxation,[15] and integration of defence and intelligence apparatus
quote:
On 15 December 2006, talks over the Union State were heating up.[citation needed] By January 2007, however, talks appeared to be stalled, as President Alexander Lukashenko of Belarus stated: "The Russian leadership is demanding that we join the Russian Federation—that's what is in the heads of the Russian leadership. I don't want to bury the sovereignty and independence of [Belarus]." He added: "From all the consultations and discussions, I have understood that we have different approaches and understandings of the building of a union state", and opposed "the possibility of the incorporation into Russia [of Belarus]"
quote:
On 18 March, the Russian government announced that all restrictions on the movement of citizens between Russia and Belarus would be lifted.[73] On 1 July 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that the "unification" process has been accelerated to alleviate the economic damage of the sanctions.
LINK
Posted on 4/4/24 at 3:52 pm to StormyMcMan
quote:
I'm a little confused on the hypothetical given the march on Kyiv in early 2022 actually had Russia shelling Kyiv.
That was a smaller expeditionary force, not the main army knocking at the gates.
The USAF has a special forces unit that basically specializes in establishing air bases using hostile runways. Russia deployed their version of that to an airfield outside Kiyv, but since Ukraine had seen the buildup on the border for months they were ready for that move and pretty much slaughtered those guys. Since that operation failed, the lines gradually settled to what they were up until the recent advances a few weeks ago.
quote:
Central, yes. Eastern, no. If you aren't pro-Russian in Eastern Ukraine you've probably already left the area sometime over the last decade. And to an extent, they are already dealing with it in the lands they are currently occupying (local resistance).
I meant central and western, my bad.
quote:
Where do you see Russian saying "Ok that's enough land" as it stands today vs Feb 2022?
Hard to say because IDK what their calculus is now. I could still see them taking those eastern regions and Crimea and potentially being happy dependent on the other terms of any potential deal, but they may feel they can get other areas they covet for whatever reason. I really think outside of Crimea any other areas are pretty flexible in terms of their strategic goals, and that should remain true no matter how long this lasts.
Posted on 4/4/24 at 4:01 pm to VolSquatch
quote:
Secretary of State Antony Blinken reaffirmed the U.S. commitment for Ukraine to eventually join NATO but held back commitments ahead of the alliance’s annual summit, which will take place in Washington in July.
“Ukraine will become a member of NATO. Our purpose at the summit is to help build a bridge to that membership,” Blinken told reporters Thursday in Brussels.
NATO allies agreed at the 2023 summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, that Ukraine can join NATO when certain conditions are met, but sparked criticism from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Baltic allies for failing to set concrete goals and a timeline for Kyiv to join the alliance.
Ukraine’s supporters are crafting ways to demonstrate robust international support for Kyiv that can be announced at NATO’s Washington summit, marking the 75th anniversary of the alliance.
The deliverables are consequential amid concerns over waning U.S. commitment to supporting Ukraine, with House Republicans holding up additional American assistance and fears that the return of former President Trump to the White House could see a retreat of the U.S. from its commitments to allies and partners.
LINK
Posted on 4/4/24 at 4:04 pm to VolSquatch
quote:
I don't think
You don't know either, so we have to judge him based on his actions, and his actions say he wants all of Ukraine.
Posted on 4/4/24 at 4:15 pm to VolSquatch
quote:
That was a smaller expeditionary force, not the main army knocking at the gates.
The air assault on the Hostomel airport north of Kyiv was a small force, the column of combined arms coming from the south was not small. Both were expeditionary forces by definition.
Posted on 4/4/24 at 4:21 pm to VolSquatch
quote:
but since Ukraine had seen the buildup on the border for months they were ready for that move and pretty much slaughtered those guys.
Kiev said they had, but when CNN showed up the VDV were in control of the airport.
LINK
Posted on 4/4/24 at 4:34 pm to Lima Whiskey
quote:
Kiev said they had, but when CNN showed up the VDV were in control of the airport
Yeah. For about 36 hours until Ukraine counter attacked and slaughtered the Russian VDV forces there and basically began turning the Battle of Kiev.
Posted on 4/4/24 at 4:43 pm to Lima Whiskey
quote:
the VDV were in control of the airport.
How long did they control the airport?
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