re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

To support your warning about inflation coming to Russia, and to give us some Sunday morning reading, here are twelve facts about the current state of the Russian economy:

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It is an increasingly common narrative in western media, that the Russian economy is resilient against sanctions and even benefited from higher energy prices. Here are 12 realities about the state of the Russian economy that you should know:

1. Russia’s economy was the size of Italy’s economy to beginn with

2. Since the war began, Russia is no longer submitting the data to the IMF and to the World Bank, that they are require members to submit - as a result, the IMF and the world bank have really no idea what Russia’s actual imports, exports, foreign direct investments, etc. are

3. The only direct source of information about the state of the Russian economy is Rosstat - the Russian Federal State Statistics Service

4. Rosstat is a state agency, under the control of the Kremlin and it’s leadership was exchanged three times since the beginning of the war in Ukraine (that is in line with the Kremlin looking to install leadership, that does the Kremlin’s bidding)

5. The IMF and World Bank economists are currently directly repeating the data from Rosstat, which is akin to asking President Putin directly, what the Russian GDP is on any given day

6. Academic studies that attempt to independently verify Rosstat’s data by e.g. going to the seller of an import to Russia, or to the buyer for an export from Russia, are unable to find any support for Rosstat’s data

7. What academic studies have shown is that every sector of the Russian economy is down between 60% - 99%

8. Unemployed workers of private companies, who had been released because their employers ceased operations in Russia, either fled the country, were put on the government payroll, either for menial jobs, or the war time economy

9. The ruble is currently not being traded, and since there is nobody buying, or selling it, the exchange rate is as fictitious as Russia’s GDP number, or the unemployment rate

10. Few nations are currently buying Russian goods, or services, but even the Russian energy sector is dwindled as the only remaining international customers of Russian oil and gas were not able to absorb the drop in international demand and paid below world market price (while the world market prices went up)

11. Putin is paying for all of this to keep the Russian population calm by running enormous deficits, funded in part by tapping into foreign currency reserves, as no international buyer is currently willing to buy Russian debt

12. The goods that are subject to sanctions (e.g. electronics, microchips, etc.) are no longer imported into Russia at scale - they are only supplied via smuggling operations, which is why you can buy a new iPhone 15 Pro Max - starting at 194,000 rubles (about $2,025) vs. 15 Pro Max - $1,200 in the United States; that is almost double the price in a country, in which the average annual income in 2023 was around 1,240,000 rubles, or approximately $14,771 vs. $59,384 in the United States

The reality is that Russia is suffering badly, outside a small elite around the centers of Moscow and Saint Petersburg, that western propagandists like Tucker Carlson might visit. The western financial institutions and the media, are not doing a very good job of describing these realities. The truth is, that we do not know what the actual value of the ruble is, or what the actual GDP growth of Russia is. But it is absolutely clear, that the picture which is being painted by the Kremlin as part of the misinformation war, does in no way reflect reality.

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Don't forget to read the comments following the article. Good stuff.

Oh, and as a treat for finishing all of that, “Omnes legum servi sumus ut liberi esse possimus” translates to "We are all servants of the law so that we may be able to be free." As we all know, that's from the great LSU fan Cicero in his text Pro Cluentio 53.146., 66 BC.

[quote]To support your warning about inflation coming to Russia, and to give us some Sunday morning reading, here are twelve facts about the current state of the Russian economy:[/quote

My friend who is former finance director at Gazprom told me that the Russian economy is screwed for 10 if not 20 years. Case closed

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So far Russia hasn't shown the ability to stop these drone attacks while at the same time, Ukraine's capabilities in drone warfare are steadily increasing.

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They're going to flip out when the drones reach the refineries east of the Urals.

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In my view Ukraine will have to destroy enough oil infrastructure to actually make it impossible to fuel the Russian tanks and/or crash the economy such that there's chaos in the streets and a threat to the regime.

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Another factor is how the Russian public will deal with the possibility of potential gasoline shortages. Could lead to panic buying and hoarding which in turn makes the situation worse even before actual shortages occur.

Ukrainian special forces behind drone attack on Russia's Slavyansk refinery – Ukrainska Pravda source
VALENTYNA ROMANENKO — Sunday, 17 March 2024, 10:56

The Security Service of Ukraine (SSU), together with the Special Operations Forces and the Unmanned Systems Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, attacked the Slavyansk-on-Kuban oil refinery in Russia's Krasnodar Krai with drones on the night of 16-17 March.

Source: a Ukrainska Pravda source in the SSU

Details: The source indicated that the attack was successful, as a large-scale fire was reported near the atmospheric distillation towers, which were the primary targets.

The source noted that the SSU drones have recently successfully struck 12 oil refineries in Russia.

Quote: "Thanks to the SSU, the [Russian] acronym for 'refinery', NPZ, now stands for 'New Plant Zapped’."

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Yes please and make sure you state what illegal activity generated the funds as it specifically relates to US taxpayers

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Half of this thread is just the knowledgeable people trying to educate the 3rd-graders.

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Details: The source indicated that the attack was successful, as a large-scale fire was reported near the atmospheric distillation towers, which were the primary targets.

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In refining circles, that is referred to as a topping plant. It's a small one at that, though less than a decade old. Yes, it is technically a refinery. Two were built by Calumet in ND before 2014, to take the diesel cut out of Bakken crude oil for local demand. The rest was put into crude oil pipelines. Both were bankrupt as a result of drilling collapse in 2014.

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US arms sales have skyrocketed in orders NOT FROM UKRAINE. Defense contractors say thank you Putain, you're our best salesman.

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See, they think that's a bad thing. They rail against the "MIC," because they're on the other side. They are with Russia, China, Iran, and the Norks.

my favorite thing is when they droll on and on about “the west”

bro you live in the west

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3. The only direct source of information about the state of the Russian economy is Rosstat - the Russian Federal State Statistics Service

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False

Lima Whiskey will be here in short order to set us all straight.