re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Jack Detsch
@JackDetsch

NEW: The US Army will be forced to cut its artillery production target by over 25% if Congress can't pass the $106B national security supplemental.

The Army would top out at 72,000 rounds/month by end of 2025 with no bill, far short of their 100K target.

Now: 28,000 rounds/month
Sept 2024: 57,000 rounds/month
Sept 2025: 72,000 rounds/month
* Dec 2025: 100,000 rounds/month

* without supplemental, US artillery production would plateau at 72,000 rounds/month

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without supplemental, US artillery production would plateau at 72,000 rounds/month

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This is part of what I was talking about earlier. For Ukraine to have a prayer of staving off collapse, the West has to mobilize industry to meet their needs. That’s nowhere near happening. It’s estimated Ukraine needs over 350,000 rounds per month….

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Last March, Ukraine’s Defense Secretary Oleksij Reznikov said Ukraine needed 356,400 shells a month “for the successful execution of battlefield tasks,” which works out to 11,800 shots per day.

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Meanwhile Russia is pumping out a quarter of a million shells monthly. That’s translates to Russia producing 3 million artillery rounds annually.
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Meanwhile the US might be able to produce 75,000. That’s not even enough to replenish our already depleted stocks, much less help Ukraine. It’s obvious that, unless some drastic mobilization efforts are undertaken in the West very soon, Ukraine’s ability to maintain combat at its current levels will reach the end of its limits. In other words, as things stand today, the question of when Ukraine will reach that point of collapse I was talking about is not a matter of it, but rather when. And it’s not that difficult of an equation to figure out.

Again, downvote it all you want. But all you’re doing is living in a fantasy world and refusing to accept reality, namely that as things stand now, Ukraine is on the way to collapse unless something drastically changes.

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Just not a UKuck

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Obviously in the dark and fed shite from you comments

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Obviously in the dark

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Well at least we have that in common, hopefully they get some better lighting in your Ukrainian ministry of propaganda office, aka your basement

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It seems the Russian support checks have stopped coming. French politicans of all stripes are now unloading on Putin. Even political streetwalker Marie Le Pen has now done a 180 and has unfriended Vlad. LINK

So sad to see how the beliefs and efforts of decades can quickly be lost. I know, just shocking.

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France being so aggressive really makes me wonder what's going on.

I thought Macron was just posturing, just threatening "troop engagement" to ensure nothing happened w/ Transnistria. Now? IDK.

He's said that "Russian advances" would bring forth French troops. I saw somewhere that he made a comment about "Odessa by the summer."

I personally think it's great that the EU is taking this seriously. They've coasted on US good will for a long time, and it's nice to see SOME of the EU finally stepping up to the global leadership plate.

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I'd rather it be buried at the bottom of the sea than have it be used to kill our brothers in Christ.

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SirWinston

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So it’s ok to believe the FBI now? Interesting. I really don’t know how you guys do it.

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No shite . It’s hilarious. But what else would you expect from people who wanted to hang Obama a few years ago for being “weak” and now rattle off DSA talking points.

Russia Needs Fresh Artillery Barrels, Bad. It’s Yanking Them Off Old Guns By The Thousand.

Jan 12, 2024,04:59pm EST

The recovered barrels, plus any new barrels Russian industry has produced, were enough to keep 2,000 howitzers shooting for two years. Assuming most of the 7,500 old towed howitzers remaining in storage aren’t already totally worn out, these guns—stripped for parts—could keep the front-line batteries in action for another two years.

If so, that points to 2026 as the crisis year in Russian weapons-supply. As it happens, that’s also the year the Russians could run out of infantry fighting vehicles and tanks.

Forbes

Random tweets

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Ukraine is in a dire need of more military resources, not least artillery ammunition. Sweden will therefore support the Czech ammunition initiative with a contribution of around 30 million Euro. (1/4)

The Czech Republic has identified large supplies of artillery ammunition that could be sent quickly to Ukraine. This is important and will help Ukraine in its struggle for freedom. (2/4

This donation is financed by funds from Sweden’s latest military aid package to Ukraine, which also includes Combat Boat 90s (CB 90), funding for procurement of more Combat Vehicles 90 (CV 90), air defense systems and much more. (3/4)

Thank you ???? President Petr Pavel for your leadership and personal commitment to this initiative. I welcome this innovative approach to supporting Ukraine. (4/4)

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Russian telegram channel Mig of Russia: "The Ukrainian Armed Forces have landed a helicopter in the border area of ??Kozinka (Belgorod oblast), fierce fighting is underway"

Russian military blogger Voenkor Kotenok: "A number of sources report a breakthrough of Ukrainian DRGs into the border village of Kozinka. There is a battle going on"

Telegram channel Rvoenkor reporting that Ukrainian troops have landed from several helicopters in the vicinity of Kozinka, Belgorod oblast, adding that the choppers flew at low-altitude to avoid being shot down

No official comment so far.

#UPDATE: Residents are leaving Kozinka in Belgorod oblast and says that gunfire can be heard in the village, according to Russia-state owned RT News Agency

Missile danger in Belgorod oblast & Belgorod city

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Putin refused it because it didn’t require Zelensky to step down and for Belarus to oversee the new elections in Ukraine.

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Also, because the Russian economy is being artificially propped up due to the war, and the economy would collapse if there were peace.