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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 2/19/24 at 6:12 pm to LSUtoOmaha
Posted on 2/19/24 at 6:12 pm to LSUtoOmaha
quote:
At what point if any would Ukraine consider using those long range missiles to target locations within Russia itself? Sure there would be blowback but it would completely rattle the enemy.
They would only do that in the event that it became clear that no more significant help was coming from the US. Even then, other NATO members would try to restrain Ukraine somewhat.
But it's a valid point. A complete end to US aid to Ukraine would likely result in a lot of Ukrainian attacks inside Russia with HIMARS, F-16s, etc. There could even be a significant ground invasion. Russia has really only lightly fortified its border with Ukraine, because only the small Russian opposition forces have crossed the border.
0
Posted on 2/19/24 at 6:16 pm to Hateradedrink
quote:
I’ve been supporting a negotiated settlement here once it became obvious the Biden administration was afraid of victory.
Awfully hard to negotiate when one side says lay down your arms and replace your government and maybe then we will talk.
Posted on 2/19/24 at 6:16 pm to RuLSU
quote:
If Biden supplied long-range cluster munitions, long-range missiles and ramped up supplies of 155mm ammo, Ukraine could have succeeded. Just blow the Kerch bridge, utilize fire control over ground supply lines and starve Crimea. Simple and effective.
BTW, nothing prevents Ukraine from doing that now. This is an error that can still get corrected.
That's still Ukraine's plan for 2025. Ukraine doesn't have the 155mm shells now for an offensive and won't have them until next year. The US and Europe are ramping up production of artillery shells, but there's a way to go to replenish stockpiles and equal Russia's production.
Posted on 2/19/24 at 6:36 pm to GOP_Tiger
LINK
It appears that Navalny's death is the final straw for Germany to send Taurus to Ukraine. This makes sense in light of the leak earlier today that the US is ready to send long-range ATACMS.
For the unaware, Taurus is a cruise missile, similar to the Storm Shadow and SCALP missiles that Ukraine has received from the UK and France. Taurus, though, is a significantly larger missile than Storm Shadow/SCALP, with a much bigger warhead, and a much longer range.
Taurus is really the ideal weapon to take out the Kerch Bridge.
It appears that Navalny's death is the final straw for Germany to send Taurus to Ukraine. This makes sense in light of the leak earlier today that the US is ready to send long-range ATACMS.
quote:
In a draft motion approved by the parliamentary group leaders, the SPD, Greens and FDP advocate “the delivery of additionally necessary long-range weapon systems”. The application is available to stern and will be put to a vote in the Bundestag this week.
The term “Taurus” is not mentioned in the paper, but even supporters of significantly greater arms deliveries were surprised by the broad wording on Monday. So far, the SPD faction in particular has been considered very cautious in the Taurus dispute . The death of Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny has apparently led some to rethink things, according to the SPD faction. "It needs a signal now."
Specifically, the application calls on the Federal Government to support Ukraine in such a way that Ukraine's territorial integrity is restored "to the full extent" within its internationally recognized borders. "This includes the delivery of additionally necessary long-range weapon systems and ammunition in order to enable Ukraine, on the one hand, to enable targeted attacks in accordance with international law on strategically relevant targets far in the rear area of ??the Russian aggressor and, on the other hand, to provide the land forces with the delivery of armored combat systems and protected vehicles; if they are handed over from the Bundeswehr's stocks, immediate replacement must be initiated."
With the motion, the parliamentary group leaders want to end a conflict that is now weighing heavily on the coalition in the background. There is growing frustration, particularly among the Greens and the FDP, about the Chancellery's ongoing blockade on the Taurus issue. The chairwoman of the defense committee, Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann (FDP), is reportedly considering submitting her own Taurus application. However, this would leave the traffic light divided on a core issue of foreign and security policy. The paper from the group leaders is now intended to prevent a dispute on an open stage.
FDP politician Strack-Zimmermann has been pushing for months for the Chancellor to give in and Germany to deliver. "This highly effective weapon system is urgently needed to weaken Russia's supplies, but has been denied for months for reasons that are inexplicable to me," said the FDP politician and chairwoman of the Defense Committee recently in the stern interview
For the unaware, Taurus is a cruise missile, similar to the Storm Shadow and SCALP missiles that Ukraine has received from the UK and France. Taurus, though, is a significantly larger missile than Storm Shadow/SCALP, with a much bigger warhead, and a much longer range.
Taurus is really the ideal weapon to take out the Kerch Bridge.
Posted on 2/19/24 at 6:37 pm to GOP_Tiger
Russia putting 50,000 men near Robotnye. Looks like Putin wants to make a statement before his sham of an election that Russia took back the land gained in the counteroffensive.
Posted on 2/19/24 at 6:43 pm to LSUPilot07
quote:
Looks like Putin wants to make a statement before his sham of an election that Russia took back the land gained in the counteroffensive.
quote:
his sham of an election
Posted on 2/19/24 at 6:44 pm to LSUPilot07
quote:
Russia putting 50,000 men near Robotnye
Much of the Ukrainian defense lines there are simply inadequate. One of the strongest criticisms of Zaluzhny was that, as the Ukrainian offensive wound down this fall, he failed to properly prepare for this inevitable Russian offensive.
But I would characterize the situation as Russia acting before additional US military aid arrives, not so much with the Russian presidential election.
Posted on 2/19/24 at 6:53 pm to SirWinston
For the 1 millionth time.
quote:LINK
Article 64 of the Constitution of Ukraine confirms that the right to participate in the management of state affairs (including the right to freely elect and be elected to bodies of state power and bodies of local self-government) provided for in Article 38, as well as the right to freedom of opinion and expression (Article 34), the right to freedom of association (Article 36) and the right to peaceful assembly (Article 39), are not absolute and may be restricted under conditions of martial law. Such restrictions naturally stem from the impossibility of complying with the requirements provided for in Chapter III of the Constitution of Ukraine, including those provided for in Article 71, which stipulates that the elections to bodies of state power and bodies of local self-government are free and shall be held on the basis of universal, equal and direct suffrage by way of secret ballot.
Furthermore, paragraph 2 of Article 71 of the Basic Law emphasizes the need to guarantee the free expression of the will of voters. In this regard, the Constitutional Court of Ukraine underscored that the principle of free elections is implemented through the following key components: guaranteeing the voters’ right to freely form and express their views and opinions; objective and accurate official certification of election results devoid of falsifications; recognition of election results and respect for the democratic choice of Ukrainian citizens. The entire electoral process should be organized and carried out in such a way as to ensure unhindered expression of the will of voters and respect for the election results (paragraph 10 of sub-clause 2.4 of clause 2 of reasoning of the Court decision No. 3-?/2017 dated December 21, 2017). Security risks, restriction of freedom of expression and prohibition of peaceful assemblies make it impossible to ensure free political competition as well as free formation and expression of the will in conditions of full-scale war.
It is worth emphasizing that the requirements provided for in Chapter III of the Constitution of Ukraine apply to all types of elections, meaning that it is mandatory for both national and local elections to comply with these requirements.
The prohibition to hold elections under conditions of martial law is also pursuant to paragraph 4 of Article 83 of the Constitution of Ukraine, which doesn’t allow for termination of the authorities of the Verkhovna Rada and automatically extends the term of parliamentary powers until the election of new convocation of parliament after the end of the war: “In the event that the term of authority of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine expires while a state of martial law or of emergency is in effect, its powers shall be extended until the day when the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine elected after the cancellation of the state of martial law or of emergency convenes its first meeting of the first session.” The opponents emphasize that there are no similar requirements for extending the term of presidential powers – paragraph 1 of Article 108 of the Constitution stipulates that the President of Ukraine shall exercise his or her authority until the assumption of office by the newly-elected President of Ukraine. However, given the impossibility of electing the members of parliament as a national representative body, conduct of election of the President of Ukraine would result in implementation of different approaches to forming the presidential and legislative branches of power, while the nature and principles of holding elections are the same for both of these bodies of state power.
This constitutional regulation is aimed at guaranteeing the continuity of government, which is of particular importance when it comes to ensuring protection of state sovereignty and stability of constitutional order in the conditions of countering military aggression.
The Constitution of Ukraine forbids holding elections during a state of emergency. Zelensky is just following the laws of his country. Are you too lazy to read or just too stupid to comprehend that?
Posted on 2/19/24 at 7:11 pm to WeeWee
quote:
The Constitution of Ukraine forbids holding elections during a state of emergency. Zelensky is just following the laws of his country. Are you too lazy to read or just too stupid to comprehend that?
He doesn't care. Truth is irrelevant. Only winning matters to people like him on the woke Right.
Posted on 2/19/24 at 7:13 pm to GOP_Tiger
Russia continues to lose allies:
LINK
Before February 24, 2022, Serbia was a staunch Russian ally. Now, it sells weapons to Ukraine through third party nations such as the UK.
quote:
The death of Russian opposition figure Alexei Navalny could negatively affect the relationship between Serbia and Russia, Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic told Serbian broadcaster Prva on Feb. 18.
Vucic said that he was “horrified” by Navalny's death in a Russian detention facility.
LINK
Before February 24, 2022, Serbia was a staunch Russian ally. Now, it sells weapons to Ukraine through third party nations such as the UK.
Posted on 2/19/24 at 7:17 pm to WeeWee
quote:
The Constitution of Ukraine forbids holding elections during a state of emergency.
Just want to add a bit of detail. The Ukrainian parliament passes a bill every 90 days to extend martial law and Zelensky signs it. Point being that it is not indefinite and the majority of the government is in favor of it.
Zelenskyy signs laws extending martial law and mobilisation in Ukraine
This post was edited on 2/19/24 at 7:19 pm
Posted on 2/19/24 at 7:24 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
Much of the Ukrainian defense lines there are simply inadequate. One of the strongest criticisms of Zaluzhny was that, as the Ukrainian offensive wound down this fall, he failed to properly prepare for this inevitable Russian offensive.
You are correct Zaluzhny did not properly prepare for this offensive. However, Robotnye is different than Avdiivka or Bakhmut. Those were urban operations where sheer numbers could overwhelm the defenders. Capturing all of the land around Robotnye that they lost last summer will require the Russians to break through their own minefields and then fight in open terrain. Ukraine could definitely be prepared better but there are atleast 1 brigades PT-91s and 1 brigade of Challenger 2s in that sector according to militaryland.net. Even with artillery shell rationing I would not want to be a Russian trying to clear a path through those minefields especially since the weather in the Zap oblast is not going to be all that cold. Russia could break through or could easily get stuck in the mud again.
quote:
But I would characterize the situation as Russia acting before additional US military aid arrives, not so much with the Russian presidential election.
You are partially correct sir. Putin is going to be reelected and he is not worried about the election. Getting what he can while the getting is good (aka before more western and especially US aid arrives) is part of it, but he also wants to embarrass Ukraine so that the EU loses faith in Ukraine's ability to win while his cyber warfare people cause trouble in Europe.
Posted on 2/19/24 at 8:03 pm to cypher
Posted on 2/19/24 at 8:11 pm to WeeWee
Step back and take a deep breath.
US publicly 113 billion. This includes the four bills passed. (32% of the total is from USAID which is often left off totals)
World Bank "loan" another 41 billion.
UN 6 billion.
Various and sundry NGOs, who knows.
Europe 96 billion.
They have taken this money, a quarter of a trillion and:
Lost most of their best fighting force, the average age is now 43 years of age and barely trained.
Blown through all the artillery and much of the equipment.
Proceeded to lose a good portion of their country.
Bought some great real estate in Miami, some fancy cars, and some cute dresses in Paris.
But somehow if we give them another 60 billion its gonna change their lives?
Putin will not be defeated, you better pray he doesnt, cause option B would not be very good for the world. After all you have stated how ruthless he is, and somehow dont think he would chose that option if he lost???
Stop sending money to a bunch of thiefs and end this thing. The US started it and they can end it.
US publicly 113 billion. This includes the four bills passed. (32% of the total is from USAID which is often left off totals)
World Bank "loan" another 41 billion.
UN 6 billion.
Various and sundry NGOs, who knows.
Europe 96 billion.
They have taken this money, a quarter of a trillion and:
Lost most of their best fighting force, the average age is now 43 years of age and barely trained.
Blown through all the artillery and much of the equipment.
Proceeded to lose a good portion of their country.
Bought some great real estate in Miami, some fancy cars, and some cute dresses in Paris.
But somehow if we give them another 60 billion its gonna change their lives?
Putin will not be defeated, you better pray he doesnt, cause option B would not be very good for the world. After all you have stated how ruthless he is, and somehow dont think he would chose that option if he lost???
Stop sending money to a bunch of thiefs and end this thing. The US started it and they can end it.
This post was edited on 2/19/24 at 8:16 pm
Posted on 2/19/24 at 8:14 pm to trinidadtiger
No doubt Zelenskyyyy is feathering a couple of pretty little nests for himself and his eesha in their beloved Tel Aviv and Miami.
It's a disgrace, and anyone who supports this is filth.
It's a disgrace, and anyone who supports this is filth.
This post was edited on 2/19/24 at 8:17 pm
Posted on 2/19/24 at 8:17 pm to Bunk Moreland
Exactly who is the “West” now? Poland, Hungary, Latvia, Estonia, Albania, Bulgaria and all the old Warsaw Pact countries?
Did the “West” conquer them? Or did they run to join NATO after the Soviet armies ran home?
This notion that the West has taken over lands because of some geopolitical scheme is ridiculous.
The West isn’t expanding, the countries of Eastern Europe want protection from Russia. That’s apparent.
Did the “West” conquer them? Or did they run to join NATO after the Soviet armies ran home?
This notion that the West has taken over lands because of some geopolitical scheme is ridiculous.
The West isn’t expanding, the countries of Eastern Europe want protection from Russia. That’s apparent.
Posted on 2/19/24 at 8:19 pm to SirWinston
quote:Anyone who supports the dictatorship & oligarchy of Russia are filth.
It's a disgrace, and anyone who supports this is filth.
Can both of our statements simultaneously be correct?
Who knows?
Posted on 2/19/24 at 8:32 pm to trinidadtiger
Since neither one of you can back up "The US has donated over $100B cash" statement let me help you out
Actual financial assistance sent from the US to Ukraine is $26.4B. You can complain about that number all you want, but just for reference the EU has donated right about $75B in financial assistance. Again you can complain if you want
Now when we look at total aid, the US is the 15th by % of GDP.
Now you can complain and spam the board with actual data
LINK
Actual financial assistance sent from the US to Ukraine is $26.4B. You can complain about that number all you want, but just for reference the EU has donated right about $75B in financial assistance. Again you can complain if you want
Now when we look at total aid, the US is the 15th by % of GDP.
Now you can complain and spam the board with actual data
LINK
Posted on 2/19/24 at 8:33 pm to StormyMcMan
ISW Update
quote:
Key Takeaways:
Russian actors conducted a cyber operation regarding Russia’s seizure of Avdiivka, likely aimed at generating panic in the Ukrainian information space and weakening Ukrainian morale.
The tempo of Russian offensive operations near Avdiivka has reportedly dramatically slowed following the Russian seizure of Avdiivka.
Ukrainian officials reported that Ukrainian forces shot down two more Russian fighter aircraft, a Su-34 and a Su-35S, in eastern Ukraine on the morning of February 19.
The White House is reportedly considering the provision of long-range ATACMS missiles to Ukraine in the event that Congress passes security assistance for Ukraine.
The Russian government eased the requirements for “compatriots” living abroad to apply to resettle in Russia.
Emirati banks reportedly began to limit some transactions with Russian entities and close Russian citizens’ accounts in September 2023 due to the risk of Western secondary sanctions.
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan reiterated that Armenia does not support Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine against the backdrop of deteriorating Russian-Armenian relations.
Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Donetsk City and in western Zaporizhia Oblast.
Russian Security Council Deputy Chairperson Dmitri Medvedev claimed on February 19 that the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) has recruited more than 53,000 military personnel since January 1, 2024.
Russian authorities have reportedly returned Ukrainian children in occupied Ukraine and Russia to relatives in Ukraine.
Posted on 2/19/24 at 8:42 pm to StormyMcMan
quote:LINK
???? US President Joe Biden is ready to meet with House Speaker Mike Johnson to discuss a $95 billion aid package for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan.
??The White House previously denied such a possibility.
Johnson should tell Biden that he will schedule a vote on the aid bill 1 hour after the Senate passes HR2 which the HOR passed last year.
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