re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

By the way, my milk carton has a new face -

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"Admiral Sokolov, who hasn't been seen for 133 days, is probably 'conferring' somewhere with General Gerasimov, who hasn't been seen for 55 days," wrote military expert and intelligence studies professor Fred Hoffman

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Have any of you seen our guy Valery lately?

Not here...

No, not here...

Nope, sorry.

That's a damned shame.

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The good news is that the American public still overwhelmingly supports Ukraine, including a strong majority of Republicans.

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This graphic is from the same PEW report

Russian sources already confirming the Su-35. No confirmation yet on the Su-34.

Really fascinating how Israel vs. Hamas is much less relevant geopolitically but Americans are more concerned with it. We just can’t quit obsessing over the sandbox.

NBC News:

Biden administration is leaning toward supplying Ukraine with long-range missiles

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MUNICH — After months of requests from Ukrainian officials, the Biden administration is working toward providing Ukraine with powerful new long-range ballistic missiles, according to two U.S. officials.

Late last year, the U.S. began to supply Ukraine with Army Tactical Missile Systems, known as ATACMS, but so far it has provided only the older medium-range ATACMS. Now, the U.S. is leaning toward sending the longer-range version of the missile, the officials said, which would allow Ukraine to strike farther inside the Russian-held Crimean Peninsula.

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If Congress approves more funding for Ukraine, the U.S. could include the long-range ATACMS in one of the first packages of military aid paid for with that money, according to the two U.S. officials. The U.S. also has ammunition and artillery ready to send to Ukraine immediately if the funding is approved, the officials added.

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The officials did not rule out asking allies to provide the missiles to Ukraine, as well, and replenishing their ATACM stockpiles.

The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

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Long-range ATACMS, of course, can reach all of Crimea and further threaten Russian military installations on the peninsula.

Some ranges of different weapons, though Ukraine will likely be prohibited from using them inside Russia:

Also, if the US provides long-range ATACMS, then Germany will likely provide Taurus.

These tools will significantly change the strategic balance in Crimea. Remember, for Ukraine, Crimea is decisive. Ukraine could survive without retaking Mariupol. It wants Crimea more.

When the Kerch Bridge is taken out decisively, and when Russian supply ships are all at the bottom of the ocean, then the prospect of a 2025 offensive that takes Crimea becomes much more realistic.

Nothing quite like landing, turning my phone back on to see the notice that another Su-35 and Su-34 have already bitten the dust. Patriot is doing WORK! I can promise you one thing without hesitation. Russian pilots are rattled right now. That’s one hell of an attrition rate they are dealing with and their best have already gone down. Now you’re getting the guys with not nearly as much seat time and even less combat time with the fear of a PAC-3 missile showing up out of nowhere up your arse. Also great news on the ATACMS. That will make Russian naval bases and airfields in Crimea untenable for Russia. Now that makes things interesting. As far as the Kerch Bridge, when it was blown up by truck bomb that first time was that just a Ukrainian martyr who chose to die to take out the bridge or was it ever said? I’ve always wondered that.

Even better.

Some bad news though I see that the Russian Mi-8 helicopter pilot that defected and landed his aircraft in Ukraine last year, Maxim Kuzminov, was found shot to death in Spain.

LINK

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Ukraine will only grow weaker from here,

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That's what wars do. They exhaust both sides. Wars are a barbaric waste of resources.

The question is: who has the political will to carry this out the longest? Can Russia keep assaulting trenches losing 500 men a day forever? And what will they gain by doing so?

This idea that Russia will just absorb 4 Ukrainian provinces and go on like nothing ever happened is a fantasy. Even at a stalemate the killing will go on until one government or the other collapses

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Ukraine will only grow weaker from here, so their leverage will only decrease over time. I don’t think there’s a scenario where they can negotiate from a position of strength. If there was one, it was the fall of 22.

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If US aid were to remain halted, that might be true. But it's not. There's every reason to expect that a discharge petition will get the aid through the House.

And Ukraine already has a lot more aid coming. There are still billions of military aid for which the Pentagon has not even issued the contracts yet. F-16s will be in the Ukrainian sky soon. Etc.

And Russia's leverage in the Black Sea decreases with every ship sunk. The Ukrainian economy was severely suppressed when nothing could get out of Odessa, but those days are over, and Ukrainian shipping is back to pre-war levels.

There are so many ways that Russia is still living on borrowed time. Just yesterday, for example, a Rossiya jet was stranded in Egypt, because they can't get parts for their Boeing and Airbus jets, and Russian commercial aviation will slowly be forced to wind down.

As things stand, Russia cannot continue the war indefinitely, nor can Ukraine. But the long war favors the side with the greater financial resources. Ukraine can win if the West continues to support it.