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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Posted on 2/19/24 at 1:01 pm to
Posted by WeeWee
Member since Aug 2012
45706 posts
Posted on 2/19/24 at 1:01 pm to
quote:

Ukraine will only grow weaker from here, so their leverage will only decrease over time. I don’t think there’s a scenario where they can negotiate from a position of strength. If there was one, it was the fall of 22. If US aid were to remain halted, that might be true. But it's not. There's every reason to expect that a discharge petition will get the aid through the House. And Ukraine already has a lot more aid coming. There are still billions of military aid for which the Pentagon has not even issued the contracts yet. F-16s will be in the Ukrainian sky soon. Etc. And Russia's leverage in the Black Sea decreases with every ship sunk. The Ukrainian economy was severely suppressed when nothing could get out of Odessa, but those days are over, and Ukrainian shipping is back to pre-war levels. There are so many ways that Russia is still living on borrowed time. Just yesterday, for example, a Rossiya jet was stranded in Egypt, because they can't get parts for their Boeing and Airbus jets, and Russian commercial aviation will slowly be forced to wind down. As things stand, Russia cannot continue the war indefinitely, nor can Ukraine. But the long war favors the side with the greater financial resources. Ukraine can win if the West continues to support it.


Don’t bother arguing with Lima Whiskey. He is either an FSB plant or so brainwashed by fake news that he might as well be a Russian plant. He thinks that the only reason why Odessa is still Ukrainian is because Russia has not decided to take it.
Posted by WeeWee
Member since Aug 2012
45706 posts
Posted on 2/19/24 at 1:05 pm to
quote:

Biden administration is leaning toward supplying Ukraine with long-range missiles


Only 18 months too late. Pretty good for government work.
Posted by Epaminondas
The Boot
Member since Jul 2020
5943 posts
Posted on 2/19/24 at 1:07 pm to
quote:

F-16s will be in the Ukrainian sky soon.
Not for long.
Posted by CitizenK
BR
Member since Aug 2019
16112 posts
Posted on 2/19/24 at 1:14 pm to
quote:

Only 18 months too late. Pretty good for government work.


You couldn't be more correct as I have had to deal with the EPA to get permission to put equipment into service at one location which had be used for the same chemical in its original location. I lucked out and found the only nonprofessional memo writer at the giant Dallas EPA office. Monsanto was shocked as they had tried to get direction for 2 years that I got a verbal okay but then I got the okay in writing!!!
This post was edited on 2/19/24 at 1:15 pm
Posted by ned nederlander
Member since Dec 2012
5992 posts
Posted on 2/19/24 at 1:20 pm to
quote:

Ukraine can win if the West continues to support it.


I’m woefully behind on this thread, but why do you think that support will shake out from the house?

We’re still talking about Ukrainian artillery shortages, approving long range ATACMs, getting German Taurus weapons, and taking out the Kerch Bridge permanently 24 months into this war.

24 months in and Ukraine’s theoretical industrial might (the US and the EU) just doesn’t seem to have adequately activating itself to win this war for Ukraine.

I assume they are already doing it treaties notwithstanding, but Ukraine should be mining it’s side of the front line at this point.
Posted by Bunk Moreland
Member since Dec 2010
69126 posts
Posted on 2/19/24 at 1:59 pm to
Apparently, this is from Vlad's interview the other day.

LINK
Posted by CitizenK
BR
Member since Aug 2019
16112 posts
Posted on 2/19/24 at 2:01 pm to
It gets even better dealing with DoD, and the Navy. In the 1980's as director of marketing for a nationwide dismantling and environmental company, I had to contact the Navy for an environmental cleanup project. So I call and the first desk the guy had no idea so after routing me through at least 10 different people I finally get transferred to the guy who had the info. His desk was sitting face to face with the first guy.
Posted by Philzilla2k
Member since Oct 2017
12956 posts
Posted on 2/19/24 at 2:08 pm to
quote:

24 months in and Ukraine’s theoretical industrial might (the US and the EU) just doesn’t seem to have adequately activating itself to win this war for Ukraine.

It’s never been about winning, it’s about forever war.
Posted by WeeWee
Member since Aug 2012
45706 posts
Posted on 2/19/24 at 2:41 pm to
quote:

24 months in and Ukraine’s theoretical industrial might (the US and the EU) just doesn’t seem to have adequately activating itself to win this war for Ukraine. It’s never been about winning, it’s about forever war.


Which is 100% Russia’s fault. The war would end today if Russia withdrew behind its internationally recognized borders.
Posted by GOP_Tiger
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2005
21027 posts
Posted on 2/19/24 at 3:17 pm to
quote:

why do you think that support will shake out from the house?


Because a large majority of the House favors it.

A bill can be brought to the House floor by using a discharge petition. It only requires a majority of the House to sign it. I believe that will happen. B there's no way for speaker Johnson to block it ... at least, that I know of.
Posted by ticklechain
Forgotten coast
Member since Mar 2018
834 posts
Posted on 2/19/24 at 3:19 pm to
Yea so many wars have ended this way.
Posted by No Colors
Sandbar
Member since Sep 2010
13507 posts
Posted on 2/19/24 at 3:23 pm to
quote:

F-16s will be in the Ukrainian sky soon.
Not for long.


So what's gonna happen to them?
Posted by CitizenK
BR
Member since Aug 2019
16112 posts
Posted on 2/19/24 at 3:31 pm to
quote:

It’s never been about winning, it’s about forever war.


It's about Ukraine not falling on his watch.

At least with Trump it will be let's win this mofo and stop this nonsense
Posted by ticklechain
Forgotten coast
Member since Mar 2018
834 posts
Posted on 2/19/24 at 3:34 pm to
Is this money they are trying to get through going to be a years worth of financing, or just t
o get them caught up?
This post was edited on 2/19/24 at 3:50 pm
Posted by RuLSU
Chicago, IL
Member since Nov 2007
8131 posts
Posted on 2/19/24 at 3:46 pm to
quote:

At least with Trump it will be let's win this mofo and stop this nonsense

"Don't underestimate Joe's ability to f*** things up." - Barack Obama

Ukraine demonstrated the best path forward when they retook Kherson. Use operational encirclement, starve the Russians of logistics and slowly wear them down while minimizing risk to your soldiers.

Ukraine retook Kherson in November, 2022. If Biden supplied long-range cluster munitions, long-range missiles and ramped up supplies of 155mm ammo, Ukraine could have succeeded. Just blow the Kerch bridge, utilize fire control over ground supply lines and starve Crimea. Simple and effective.

BTW, nothing prevents Ukraine from doing that now. This is an error that can still get corrected.

I have to imagine US belief is that Russia runs out of money before Ukraine runs out of men. That's the only strategy they seem to follow that makes any sense based on their actions.
Posted by LSUPilot07
Member since Feb 2022
8657 posts
Posted on 2/19/24 at 3:51 pm to
He’s implying Russia will shoot them down which will most likely happen at some point, that’s war. Look how many of Russia’s newest and best fighter and fighter-bombers have taken the plunge in the last 5 days alone. If the Ukrainians use them correctly though they can be a real headache for Russia. The F-16 is kind of like that fly at the family bbq that refuses to go away no matter how many times you swat it. Its small size and good thrust to weight ratio make it a great multi role fighter and besides the Gripen is just about perfect for their needs with the abundance of spare parts everywhere. They will use them to help air defenses shoot down missiles launched at Ukrainian targets civilian or military as well as some SEAD sorties. It will also be nice to see the Russian lines get a few more JDAMs dropped on them which has been a one sided affair so far with Russia’s crude copy of our gliding bombs. Just don’t expect to see much air to air dogfighting with the amount of AA systems saturating both sides of the line.
This post was edited on 2/19/24 at 6:06 pm
Posted by WeeWee
Member since Aug 2012
45706 posts
Posted on 2/19/24 at 4:47 pm to
quote:

F-16s will be in the Ukrainian sky soon.Not for long.


If Russia has a hard time shooting down old Ukrainian Migs and Su27s, what makes you think they can shoot down an F16?
Posted by WeeWee
Member since Aug 2012
45706 posts
Posted on 2/19/24 at 4:54 pm to
quote:

Ukraine retook Kherson in November, 2022. If Biden supplied long-range cluster munitions, long-range missiles and ramped up supplies of 155mm ammo, Ukraine could have succeeded. Just blow the Kerch bridge, utilize fire control over ground supply lines and starve Crimea. Simple and effective. BTW, nothing prevents Ukraine from doing that now. This is an error that can still get corrected.


The Biden administration’s policy of helping Ukraine not to lose but not helping enough to win is in the way.
Posted by Hateradedrink
Member since May 2023
4156 posts
Posted on 2/19/24 at 4:55 pm to
I’ve been supporting a negotiated settlement here once it became obvious the Biden administration was afraid of victory.
Posted by tokenBoiler
Lafayette, Indiana
Member since Aug 2012
5060 posts
Posted on 2/19/24 at 5:31 pm to
quote:

quote:
F-16s will be in the Ukrainian sky soon.
Not for long.



So what's gonna happen to them?
Maybe they'll be in the Russian sky.
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