re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

We are in a gigantic fight right now against China in rebuilding our Navy. A large portion of our ships are nearing the end or have already met their end of service life with several being pressed further with some modifications. China is building more ships faster than us right now, our saving grace is our carrier fleet and our subs but China is catching up underwater. Over the next 10-15 years we are going to have to build a lot of new ships of all sizes as well as aircraft to replace aging F-16s, F-18 and f-15s too. The good thing is this should create jobs on the home front but we have to really get going because China is dumping so much of their money into their forces. So this is another reason we can’t look like shite abandoning Ukraine.

ISW Update

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Key Takeaways:

Poor weather conditions continue to slow the pace of Ukrainian and Russian combat operations across the entire frontline but have not completely halted them.

Russian forces launched another series of Shahed 136/131 drone and missile strikes targeting southern Ukraine overnight on December 1-2.

Ukrainian and International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) officials reported that the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) completely disconnected from all external power sources for five and a half hours on the night of December 1 to 2, marking the plant’s eighth complete black out - all under Russian occupation.

The US Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) sanctioned three third party entities involved in the transport of Russian crude oil above the G7 price cap.

The Russia Ministry of Defense (MoD) signaled that it likely intends to continue relying on crypto-mobilization recruitment schemes for any potential increase in the size of the Russian military.

The Kremlin’s policy towards the role of migrants in bolstering Russia’s industrial capacity continues to be inconsistent.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov’s November 30 threat against Moldova may have emboldened certain pro-Russian actors to attempt to sow political instability and division in Moldova.

Russian forces continued offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, near Avdiivka, west of Donetsk City, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast and advanced near Avdiivka.

Radio Svoboda’s “Schemes” and “Systems” investigative projects published a joint investigation on December 1 detailing how the Main Directorate of the Russian General Staff (GRU) created the “Redut” private military company (PMC) to recruit thousands of Russians for irregular combat service in Ukraine.

Ukrainian partisans reportedly conducted a partisan attack against Russian military personnel in occupied Melitopol, Zaporizhia Oblast, on December 1.

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British Defence Intelligence
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 03 December 2023

The efforts of both Russia and Ukraine to overcome their adversary's ground-based air defence systems continue to be one of the most important contests of the war. On the Russian side, the SA-15 Tor short-range surface-to-air missile system (SAM) is playing a critical and largely effective role.

With a maximum range of 15 km, the SA-15 is operated by the Russian army air defence units and is designed to protect the front line of ground troops. This is in contrast with other short-range systems, such as SA-22 Pantsir, which are operated by Russian Aerospace Forces and typically protects command nodes, longer range SAMs, and air bases.

Effectively acting as the front line of Russia's elaborate air defence network in Ukraine, the SA-15 is currently particularly utilised to counter Ukrainian uncrewed aerial vehicle operations. One of the key limitations of the system in the current war is likely the endurance of its crew. With an established allocation of only three personnel to each system, maintaining a high state of alert for extended periods is highly likely proving an extreme test of endurance.

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We would have to reopen closed shipyards to even stand a chance. We still have a nice advantage as far as blue water navy,

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The closed shipyards don't stay idle ground for long. They've been turned into locations of upscale housing, stadiums, manufacturing of other than steel products, container terminals, etc...

Bethlehem's giant steel mill/shipyard complex at Sparrow's Point, MD is a fine example of this. I was there in the late 90's after demolition had begun, the size was unbelievable and larger than Exxon Refinery and chemical plants in Baton Rouge, but in a more compact area. At that time my employer was one of the top three national demolition/dismantling contractors who all had major contracts there. That work continued well into 2010's.

Take the smaller Brown Shipbuilding in Houston. That is all container, heavy lift cargo, wharehouses, etc... now.

The shipyards for offshore oil/gas and USCG in the Houma to New Iberia corridor would all need to be dredged deeper than 12 feet draft or less. The Atchafalaya is rather shallow. Port Fourchon isn't actually deepwater as advertised. Workboats drag bottom when outbound, at the bar a few miles out, when laden.

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The Avondale shipyard here in our area could still be utilized if needed, but would have to be almost rebuilt.
Still has the rail and river access along with the land needed

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True but the point is that most existing shipyards on the Gulf Coast are for ships drawing 12 feet of water or less. On the East Coast, many have been redeveloped, same with the West Coast.

How long until Moscow accuses Ukraine of using rats as a weapon?

BAE Systems has started back production of M2 Bradleys as well as M777 towed howitzers. The Bradley is having something of a resurgence. Its versatility and adaptability as well as the protection it has provided Ukrainian crews has been impressive enough that they have hundreds of orders for Bradleys. It has really been a good weapon for Ukraine. Honestly I think they are way more valuable than tanks for Ukraine.

LINK

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The M1A1s, Bradley’s, M113, HIMARS, etc were pulled out of storage. The Obama administration decided to dispose of all the cluster munitions in the US inventory. They were literally sitting in warehouses waiting to be disposed of before being sent to Ukraine. The FrankenSam program is taking Sea Sparrow and Sidewinder missiles that have been pulled from service and are being recoded to be fired from Ukraine’s existing Buk missile launchers and radars. The ATCAMS that were recently sent to Ukraine are block1 versions which were manufactured in the 90s and put into storage in the 2010s. So yes the stuff we are sending to Ukraine was sitting and rusting in warehouses here in the USA and Europe.

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However, they are still superior to what the Russians field. The Ukraine armor crews love their new equipment.

Another example is the HAWK anti-air missiles that have been around since 1959 and are largely retired here and around the world, but have a small footprint, a 30 mile range and still 80% effective. Thousands of those were built and our allies are happy to pass them along.

Very weird:

My car is in the shop, so I got an Uber this evening here in BR, and William picked me up. William is a black guy driving a car with a Russian flag sticker on it, and he was playing Russian music in his car. I don't know how to describe it, except as some kind of metal/rap hybrid -- very ominous stuff with the artist growling the words and dogs snarling in the background. I don't know Russian, but this war has taught me what "suka" means, at least.

I was curious what his connection was with Russia, but the volume of his music indicated that he wasn't interested in conversation. My guess is that he is from Africa and got his undergraduate degree in Russia and is at LSU for grad school.

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William is a black guy driving a car with a Russian flag sticker
... playing Russian music in his car
... some kind of metal/rap hybrid -- very ominous stuff
... the volume of his music indicated that he wasn't interested in conversation

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Lot's of assumption, little substance. A most excellent post in this thread!