re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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The apparent Russian failure to establish a cohesive command structure among forces defending on the east (left) bank of Kherson Oblast continues to degrade Russian morale and combat capabilities.

The Russian “Dnepr” Grouping of Forces is increasingly comprised of disparate elements of recently transferred and degraded units and new formations, which may be contributing to this apparent lack of cohesive command structure.

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That doesn't sound good for the Russians. That sounds actively bad, in fact.

British Defence Intelligence
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE
30 November 2023

Russia's airborne forces, the VDV, has likely started deploying the newly formed 104th Guards Airborne Division (104 GAD) in Ukraine for the first time. The division is probably assembling in Kherson Oblast.

In August 2023, Russian defence minister Sergei Shoigu announced plans to re-establish 104 GAD, which was previously downsized to a smaller, brigade-sized formation in 1998. Its subordinate units likely include the 337th regiment, an additional manoeuvre regiment, and the 52nd Artillery Brigade.

With the addition of the 104 GAD, the number of divisions in the VDV's order of battle will increase to five. The division will likely be poorly trained and is unlikely to meet the erstwhile elite standards of the VDV. It will almost certainly receive close scrutiny from the Russian General responsible for Kherson, General Colonel Mikhail Teplinsky; his routine role is overall commander of the VDV.

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Time for Ukraine to enter Peace talks.

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"No! We want ... More war! More gore!" the DV'ers scream.

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Time for Ukraine to enter Peace talks.

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Peace for peace's sake isn't really going to be a lasting solution.

Time for Ukraine to enter Peace talks.

And what about Russia?

Everyone keeps saying Ukriane needs to sue for peace because it's a stalemate, but Noone seems to mention Russia doing the same for the same reason. Wonder why?

For what it's worth, Russia won't enter peace talks unless Ukraine recognizes all of Russias new claims and let's Russia oversee their elections. Ukraine won't enter into negotiations unless Russia recognizes the original country borders. Since neither country controls all of the territory they now claim all the commentary around peace talks are really just BS meant to make one side or the other look "better" to the layman who don't look beyond headlines

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Less than 500 square miles of land have changed hands since the beginning of this year

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No doubt 2023 has seen few big changes, but what about pre 2023?

If you are going to talk about all the billions given then you should talk about all the war and not just 2023. How much land was regained from Russia as after their initial invasion?

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Everyone keeps saying Ukriane needs to sue for peace because it's a stalemate, but Noone seems to mention Russia doing the same for the same reason. Wonder why?

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You bring up a good point. I’d guess the reason many say this about Ukraine and not Russia is because of the fact the war has devolved into a stalemate. Being the larger of the two protagonists, military logic dictates a stalemate favors Russia due to the fact they, at least on paper, should be able to absorb the cost in men, material, and resources longer than Ukraine.

Along with this fact, you have to consider the war aims of each side at this point of the war. The aim of the Russians is to hold the ground they hold, thus their aim is mostly defensive in nature now. On the other hand, Ukraine’s war aim is to expel Russia from Ukrainian soil. Thus Ukraine’s war aim is offensive in nature in that to achieve their aim they will have to take land currently held by the Russians. And with the war being in a stalemate, that stalemate naturally favors the side that looks to defend over the side that looks to go on the offensive.


So, the situation appears to be that (1) Russia is in a better position to continue a static war than Ukraine and (2) can also achieve its war aims as the war now is. This is why many call on Ukraine to sue for peace.

However, having said that, the situation is not as simple as it seems. Cracks are starting to show on the Russian side. As was posted earlier, the Russian army is starting to have command and control problems….

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The apparent Russian failure to establish a cohesive command structure among forces defending on the east (left) bank of Kherson Oblast continues to degrade Russian morale and combat capabilities. The Russian “Dnepr” Grouping of Forces is increasingly comprised of disparate elements of recently transferred and degraded units and new formations, which may be contributing to this apparent lack of cohesive command structure.

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And Russia is starting to run into recruiting issues as well….

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Russia's efforts to generate combat power via recruitment from Central Asian countries may become a source of tension in Russia's relationship with its Central Asian neighbors.

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And they’re throwing poorly trained units into the fight which will almost certainly do nothing of value and only serve to add to the Russian casualty count…

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In August 2023, Russian defence minister Sergei Shoigu announced plans to re-establish 104 GAD, which was previously downsized to a smaller, brigade-sized formation in 1998. Its subordinate units likely include the 337th regiment, an additional manoeuvre regiment, and the 52nd Artillery Brigade. With the addition of the 104 GAD, the number of divisions in the VDV's order of battle will increase to five. The division will likely be poorly trained and is unlikely to meet the erstwhile elite standards of the VDV.

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Meanwhile, the units already at the front continue to bleed for no gain….

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Russian forces continued offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, near Avdiivka, west and southwest of Donetsk City, the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast but did not make any confirmed advances.

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The question is how long the morale of the Russian people will hold. The longer the war remained in this stalemate the more Russians will start to ask what is they’re fighting and dying for. This question is a simple one for Ukraine. They’re fighting to defend and liberate their country. Russia, though it tries, cannot sell this angle. And that fact could be the deciding factor in the war when all is said and done.

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Time for Ukraine to enter Peace talks.

And what about Russia?

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the problem is neither side is at the point they want o give up. Russia still thinks it can out last the west's aide and wear down Ukraine. Russia is still making offensive moves in the SE.

Ukraine was fighting Russia in the Donetsk region since 2014 without much help from the west (blankets from Obama) and weren't ready to "sue for Peace"

biggest problem i see is neither side is at the point where they see peace as a benefit. both sides terms are far from each other.

Russia wants all of territory they hold, plus the remaining un-occupied territory in those oblasts. No NATA/EU membership for Ukraine, and Zalensky's government overthrown and a Russian friendly (see Belorussia) put in power.

Ukraine wants 2014 borders and ascension into NATO/EU.

We will eventually see the "acceptable" terms of peace come closer to where each side sits now but we are still too far apart. Any any peace deal that doesn't include Ukraine into EU/NATA will put is un the same situation 5-10 years from now once Russia regroups.

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Exactly Folks act as if this war is “free” for Russia, but reality is it is costing them thousands of lives and billions of dollars also. They are trying to maintain their army with help from N Korea, Iran and from whoever they can gather up munitions from. China has them by the balls and is dealing from a stacked deck. You brought up some good points. The war is taking a toll on Russia too. For what?

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Russia is seen in the West as this behemoth with endless reserves of men and weapons. And while it’s true they do have deep resources, there is also the matter of morale. History gives us a a number of perfect examples of how the Russian people will bear the burden of horrific loss in times of war. But history also shows there are limits to what the Russian people will endure. That example is WWI. If Russia finds itself in a war where (1) it’s not fighting for its existence and (2) the war devolves into a pointless stalemate, there is a limit to what the Russian people will endure before they put an end to it, and do it violently via revolution if necessary. And if nothing else, this war looks very much like WWI.

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the problem is neither side is at the point they want o give up. Russia still thinks it can out last the west's aide and wear down Ukraine. Russia is still making offensive moves in the SE.

Ukraine was fighting Russia in the Donetsk region since 2014 without much help from the west (blankets from Obama) and weren't ready to "sue for Peace"

biggest problem i see is neither side is at the point where they see peace as a benefit. both sides terms are far from each other.

Russia wants all of territory they hold, plus the remaining un-occupied territory in those oblasts. No NATA/EU membership for Ukraine, and Zalensky's government overthrown and a Russian friendly (see Belorussia) put in power.

Ukraine wants 2014 borders and ascension into NATO/EU.

We will eventually see the "acceptable" terms of peace come closer to where each side sits now but we are still too far apart. Any any peace deal that doesn't include Ukraine into EU/NATA will put is un the same situation 5-10 years from now once Russia regroups.

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You’re very right. And I have a strong suspicion that when a peace is finally agreed upon and this war ends, neither side will have achieved 100% of their war aims. Rather it will be somewhere in between.

Just a guess, but I think most likely what we will see is Russia retaining at least some of its gains in Ukraine while Ukraines becomes a member of NATO. I could also see some sort of UN mandated DMZ situation akin to what has been the case on the Korean Peninsula for the past 70 years.

All that is just a purely educated guess though.