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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 11/30/23 at 8:45 am to Athanatos
Posted on 11/30/23 at 8:45 am to Athanatos
quote:
Absent some meaningful security guarantees from the West, Ukraine will be an economic dead zone. They can’t stop fighting unless peace involves some affiliation with NATO, even if it’s just a firm roadmap.
Agree. From the Ukrainian standpoint, even more than regaining all the ground they’ve lost, peace with Russia must also include some sort of real security from the West. And it can’t be the same empty promises the West made in the early 90s when Ukraine first gained independence and handed over the nuclear arsenal it inherited from the Soviet Union in return for security guarantees. I think Ukraine won’t settle for anything less than full NATO membership, having learned its lesson from previous Western promises.
2
Posted on 11/30/23 at 8:46 am to cypher
quote:If accurate, this is a huge blow to Russian logistics coming from the Far East. At 9.5 miles in length, they'll never repair this tunnel. Yes, there are alternate routes, but like Thomas the Train says, "Accidents will happen".
On the night of 29-30 November, an explosion occurred on the Baikal-Amur Mainline in the Severomuysky Tunnel, named after Vladimir Bessolov, located in Buryatia (Russia). Source: Ukrainska Pravda’s source in the security forces Details: The source notes that this is actually the only major railway connection between Russia and China. And currently this route, which Russia uses, specifically for military supplies, is paralysed. The UP source said the Security Service of Ukraine (SSU) is behind this detonation.
Posted on 11/30/23 at 10:21 am to Darth_Vader
No one seems to be mentioning demographic collapse of either nation already baked in and likely to occur in a decade. This was known before 2022. Both are lacking in young men to begin with, as percent of population. Ukraine has been able to attract volunteers from other nations as far away as Brazil to supplement this lack.
Posted on 11/30/23 at 10:52 am to StormyMcMan
quote:
Russian authorities continue efforts to erase Ukrainian culture and identity in occupied Ukraine.
Stalin's ghost still haunts Ukraine.
Posted on 11/30/23 at 10:58 am to Darth_Vader
quote:
Russia is seen in the West as this behemoth with endless reserves of men and weapons. And while it’s true they do have deep resources, there is also the matter of morale. History gives us a a number of perfect examples of how the Russian people will bear the burden of horrific loss in times of war. But history also shows there are limits to what the Russian people will endure. That example is WWI. If Russia finds itself in a war where (1) it’s not fighting for its existence and (2) the war devolves into a pointless stalemate, there is a limit to what the Russian people will endure before they put an end to it, and do it violently via revolution if necessary. And if nothing else, this war looks very much like WWI.
Troop morale and the will to fight will like be what breaks Putin's Russia. It is absolutely miserable to stuck in the field under fire, cold, and wet for no good reason.
Posted on 11/30/23 at 12:46 pm to Darth_Vader
quote:I’d hazard this looks more like their Adventures in Afghanistan than WWI.
Russia is seen in the West as this behemoth with endless reserves of men and weapons. And while it’s true they do have deep resources, there is also the matter of morale. History gives us a a number of perfect examples of how the Russian people will bear the burden of horrific loss in times of war. But history also shows there are limits to what the Russian people will endure. That example is WWI. If Russia finds itself in a war where (1) it’s not fighting for its existence and (2) the war devolves into a pointless stalemate, there is a limit to what the Russian people will endure before they put an end to it, and do it violently via revolution if necessary. And if nothing else, this war looks very much like WWI.
There’s much more similarities: culturally, societally, from a military culture, leadership-wise, etc.
Imperial Russia was much more dissimilar than the 1979 Soviet Union to present-day Russia.
Posted on 11/30/23 at 5:15 pm to Darth_Vader
GLSDB deliveries have once again been pushed back to spring 2024 at the earliest. Boeing and Saab, two of the best in the business, are having absolute hell with this munition. But credit to them for not sending them to the battlefield until they are completely right and tested properly. Russia would hurry a new weapon to the front and hope for the best.
Posted on 11/30/23 at 5:25 pm to CitizenK
Yes our Patriot radar is what makes the system stand out from others. It is incredibly capable now and like you said is capable of tracking several targets at once then decide which launcher is in the best position to intercept each bogey. This didn’t come without its glitches of course. The Patriot failed several times in its earlier days to track and fire accurately. One of the most notable examples happened in the Gulf War when Iraq launched a Scud missile at a U.S. base in Saudi Arabia. The intercepting missile missed the Scud and 28 of our soldiers were killed.
Posted on 11/30/23 at 6:52 pm to LSUPilot07
quote:
One of the most notable examples happened in the Gulf War when Iraq launched a Scud missile at a U.S. base in Saudi Arabia. The intercepting missile missed the Scud and 28 of our soldiers were killed.
It was originally designed to intercept aircraft not missiles. It was just beginning that stage of upgrades for Desert Shield/Storm. Oh so many upgrades since then. It can and has shot down cruise missiles and is capable of shooting down hypersonic other than ballistic missiles in its latest upgrade. Fort Bliss has that operational, and the crews are not fixing a few glitches.
Posted on 11/30/23 at 7:17 pm to CitizenK
It’s actually quite amazing how far the Patriot has been upgraded over the years. Most think it’s a new system but it’s been in service longer than the average U.S. soldier has been alive. It will continue to serve and see more and more upgrades as the modern battlefield changes. An example of “it it ain’t broke, don’t fix it”. I expect to see some really creative EW and short range air defense systems developed over the next few years though as drones become more and more an integral part of warfare. The Patriot will remain for its intended purpose but wasting their expensive missiles on drone swarms won’t be an option. The next 5-7 years of invention from all countries of the world is going to be very interesting.
Posted on 11/30/23 at 8:54 pm to WeeWee
quote:
deactivated missiles which need disposing of.
I can't believe people are honestly still believing this.
Posted on 11/30/23 at 9:15 pm to Turbeauxdog
quote:
I can't believe people are honestly still believing this.
I can't believe some people don't. Upgrading and replacing outdated equipment was the literal reason the last administration bumped military spending 10%.
Posted on 11/30/23 at 9:25 pm to MoarKilometers
ISW Update
quote:
Key Takeaways:
A recent Russian opinion poll indicates that the number of Russians who fully support the war in Ukraine has almost halved since February 2023 and that more Russians support a withdrawal of Russian forces from Ukraine than do not.
The Russian war in Ukraine has created new social tensions and exacerbated existing ones within Russia, which remain highly visible in the Russian information space despite ongoing Kremlin censorship efforts.
The Kremlin is likely concerned about how changing Russian perceptions of the Russian war in Ukraine will affect the outcome of the March 2024 Russian presidential election and is implementing measures to ensure that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s actual electoral support does not rest on Russian battlefield successes.
Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitri Peskov confirmed on November 30 that Russian President Vladimir Putin will hold his annual live “Direct Line” forum and annual press conference in tandem on December 14.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov notably did not promote Kremlin information operations feigning interest in negotiations during his speech at the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) Council of Foreign Ministers meeting in North Macedonia on November 30, and instead promoted escalatory rhetoric about Moldova.
Russian forces conducted multiple series of missile and drone strikes on Ukraine that struck civilian infrastructure on November 29 and 30.
Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian military bureaucracy is impeding Russian drone usage and acquisition among Russian forces operating on east (left) bank Kherson Oblast amid continued complaints about weak Russian capabilities on the east bank.
The Ukrainian Security Service (SBU) was reportedly involved in an explosion that caused disruptions on a section of the East Siberian Railway connecting Russia and China on the night of November 29.
The Kremlin continues to advance its strategic slow-burn effort to absorb Belarus through the Union State structure.
Russian forces continued offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, near Avdiivka, west and southwest of Donetsk City, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast but did not make any confirmed advances.
A Ukrainian military observer stated that Russian authorities’ plan to form two tank battalions in about four months using equipment from two long-term weapons and equipment stores indicates a lack of combat-ready weapons and military equipment.
Occupation and Russian government officials continue efforts to militarize Ukrainian youth in occupied Ukraine.
Posted on 11/30/23 at 10:40 pm to Darth_Vader
quote:
Russia is seen in the West as this behemoth with endless reserves of men and weapons. And while it’s true they do have deep resources, there is also the matter of morale. History gives us a a number of perfect examples of how the Russian people will bear the burden of horrific loss in times of war. But history also shows there are limits to what the Russian people will endure. That example is WWI. If Russia finds itself in a war where (1) it’s not fighting for its existence and (2) the war devolves into a pointless stalemate, there is a limit to what the Russian people will endure before they put an end to it, and do it violently via revolution if necessary.
I spoke with friends in Moscow earlier this month. They are your typical middle-class Russians who has achieved "the Russian dream" of owning their own apartment and a German car. I asked them about life in Russian and how it has changed for them since the start of the SMO. In addition to complaining about price of everything and the weak ruble, they complained about transportation. Their BMW needs a computer chip for it to run right and they cannot get the chip because of the sanctions. They can't sell the car for what anything close to worth they think it is worth since it is broken. They are having to ride the Metro and use public transit again. They complained of riding on old Russian and Soviet era subway trains brought out of " the rust yard"instead of the nice modern German and Russian trains on some lines. According to them bus system in Moscow is less comfortable and less reliable than it used to because older Russian buses are having to be brought back into service to replace the European built buses. Everyone in their building paid extra to have German appliances in their apartment. Their neighbor had to overpay to replace a German made stove with a "piece of shite Chinese stove." Their neighbor complains about it constantly. They are worried about their appliances because they spent the money for them and all their warranties have been voided by sanctions. With prices going up week to week like they are, they do not know where they would get the money to buy "a piece of shite Chinese stove" if their German stove broke. Based on my talks with them and what I have seen online, I guess is they reach that limit in the next 18-24 months because inflation is killing them and the results of sanctions are starting to affect their lives. If things continue with inflation and part shortages like they are now "the Russian dream" will be unattainable in the next 18-24 months. When that happens the Russian people will go off like a time bomb. The only thing that is unknown is if they go off against their government or go off against Ukraine and the west.
Posted on 11/30/23 at 11:18 pm to RuLSU
quote:
Oh, add in the humiliation of getting stymied and stalled by the poorest country in Europe before the West/NATO/US got involved in spring of '22
Interesting caveat to say the least
Posted on 11/30/23 at 11:28 pm to WeeWee
How do you know Ukrainians and Russians? Does one side know you're friends with the other? Do your Russian friends know you served in Ukraine? If so, what do they think about it? I know you're an MD and I infer you're from somewhere in Louisiana. How did you get involved in all this?
I'm not trying to doxx you and of course feel free not to answer-or maybe you already have and I missed it. I'm just curious.
I'm not trying to doxx you and of course feel free not to answer-or maybe you already have and I missed it. I'm just curious.
Posted on 12/1/23 at 5:23 am to WeeWee
Last summer, a Russian friend told me that he was applying for US citizenship. This was for two reasons, international travel was more difficult on a Russian passport and that the Russian economy is totally screwed for at least a decade, if not two. He left his position as finance director at Gazprom in 2007 after the political decision, not economic, to build Nordstream was approved.
His parents still live in Moscow, both were scientists of some type and must be well connected due he laughed about how they have no personal economic issues. His degrees are political economics from the Moscow U and a university in Spain all in the early 90's.
His parents still live in Moscow, both were scientists of some type and must be well connected due he laughed about how they have no personal economic issues. His degrees are political economics from the Moscow U and a university in Spain all in the early 90's.
Posted on 12/1/23 at 5:34 am to CitizenK
British Defence Intelligence
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 1 December 2023
The Russian defence industry is moving to close the capability gap with Ukraine in the development of one-way attack uncrewed surface vehicles (OWA USVs). On 27 November 2023, Mikhail Danilenko, head of Russian firm KMZ, announced their USVs would be trialled in the 'special military operation' with a view to establishing series production in 2024.
KMZ has previously manufactured a range of USVs, but in recent months they have started promoting their OWA capability. Danilenko said the boat could carry a munition of up to 600 kg.
Navies have employed USVs since the Second World War. However, with modern types resembling speedboats packed with explosives, in the hands of Ukrainian forces they have emerged as a key capability in maritime domain since Russia's full-scale
invasion.
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 1 December 2023
The Russian defence industry is moving to close the capability gap with Ukraine in the development of one-way attack uncrewed surface vehicles (OWA USVs). On 27 November 2023, Mikhail Danilenko, head of Russian firm KMZ, announced their USVs would be trialled in the 'special military operation' with a view to establishing series production in 2024.
KMZ has previously manufactured a range of USVs, but in recent months they have started promoting their OWA capability. Danilenko said the boat could carry a munition of up to 600 kg.
Navies have employed USVs since the Second World War. However, with modern types resembling speedboats packed with explosives, in the hands of Ukrainian forces they have emerged as a key capability in maritime domain since Russia's full-scale
invasion.
Posted on 12/1/23 at 7:26 am to cypher
Ukraine's Security Service blows up another train on Russian railway
VALENTYNA ROMANENKO — Friday, 1 December 2023, 11:28
Another train carrying fuel has exploded in Russia’s Republic of Buryatia as a result of a special operation by the Security Service of Ukraine (SSU) on the Baikal-Amur railway line.
Source: Ukrainska Pravda sources in law enforcement agencies
Details: The source said this explosion was the second stage of a special operation carried out by the SSU to disable this important railway line. The Russians also use it for military logistics.
The first freight train exploded directly in the Severomuysky Tunnel.
The Russians began to use a detour route going through the so-called Devil's Bridge to keep moving. This is what the SSU anticipated: when the train was passing along this high 35-metre bridge, they activated explosive devices that were planted in it.
According to Russian Telegram channels, six fuel tankers went on fire after the explosion. A fire train was needed to extinguish it.
Quote: "Russian special services should get used to the fact that our people are everywhere. Even in distant Buryatia. "
Ukrainska Pravda
VALENTYNA ROMANENKO — Friday, 1 December 2023, 11:28
Another train carrying fuel has exploded in Russia’s Republic of Buryatia as a result of a special operation by the Security Service of Ukraine (SSU) on the Baikal-Amur railway line.
Source: Ukrainska Pravda sources in law enforcement agencies
Details: The source said this explosion was the second stage of a special operation carried out by the SSU to disable this important railway line. The Russians also use it for military logistics.
The first freight train exploded directly in the Severomuysky Tunnel.
The Russians began to use a detour route going through the so-called Devil's Bridge to keep moving. This is what the SSU anticipated: when the train was passing along this high 35-metre bridge, they activated explosive devices that were planted in it.
According to Russian Telegram channels, six fuel tankers went on fire after the explosion. A fire train was needed to extinguish it.
Quote: "Russian special services should get used to the fact that our people are everywhere. Even in distant Buryatia. "
Ukrainska Pravda
Posted on 12/1/23 at 7:59 am to WeeWee
quote:
BMW
You said it all right there.
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