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Message
re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 11/16/23 at 11:14 am to No Colors
Posted on 11/16/23 at 11:14 am to No Colors
Russian industrial production just dwarfs ours. They lost some capacity through mergers, like we did, but there was no whole scale deindustrialization like we experienced.
Russia can produce somewhere between 900 and 1000 MBTs a year, which is a figure that will climb, now that they've restarting production of the T-80 at Uralvagonzavod. This is a mix of new completely builds, and refurbished tanks.
The only areas where we outproduce them, is probably aircraft, and our shipyards are in better shape than theirs, that's worth mentioning, but the total production figures are very low.
Russia can produce somewhere between 900 and 1000 MBTs a year, which is a figure that will climb, now that they've restarting production of the T-80 at Uralvagonzavod. This is a mix of new completely builds, and refurbished tanks.
The only areas where we outproduce them, is probably aircraft, and our shipyards are in better shape than theirs, that's worth mentioning, but the total production figures are very low.
3
Posted on 11/16/23 at 11:22 am to Darth_Vader
quote:
And if the fighting continues long enough, Ukraine will find itself in the same situation Russia found itself in 1917 and Germany and Austria found themselves in 1918.
The bitter hindsight is that the peace deal they were offered in April of 22 was their best option. And by refusing to bend, they will ultimately lose more and more territory.
They've had the moral victories, hitting the shipyards in Crimea for example, but even that comes at a cost, because the Russians will conclude, if they haven't already, that they will have to take Odessa to keep Crimea safe.
Posted on 11/16/23 at 11:25 am to Darth_Vader
quote:
What you're refusing to understand is at this point of the war, Ukraine's position will not improve but only worsen. The pace they'll be able to secure a year from now will be far worse than any peace they could secure now.
The UN has attempted to barter peace twice this year and Russia has said that the only way it will come to the peace table is if Ukraine agrees to give Russia everything east of the Dnieper including the territory Ukraine still controls, Zelensky resigns, new presidential elections are held in which Russia gets to oversee, and Ukraine agrees to disarm. Those are the terms that Russia has given just to come to the table. How can any peace next year or the the year after be worse than what Russia is demanding right now?
quote:
Ukraine is in a far different situation than America was in 1776 or Britian was in 1940. If you will recall, in the Revolutionary War, the world's other superpower, namely France, entered the war and helped seal the American victory. In the case of Britian in 1940, they likewise were saved by the intervention of a superpower entering the war as a belligerent on their side, namely the United States of America.
You are missing my point. Nobody knew if France and Spain would enter the war after Washington lost NYC and lost the American capital of Philadelphia. At the time of Dunkirk, nobody knew if the USA would enter the war or that Hitler would make one of the dumbest decisions in history and invade the USSR a year later. Nobody knows what will happen with this war next year.
quote:
How many F-16s will we be supplying?
All total NATO is supplying 60 F16s to Ukraine. Sweden is also supposedly willing to supply 12-20 Gripens to Ukraine once it ascension to NATO is done and NATO agrees to move some fighters from England or Germany there.
quote:
We've already seen how little impact the armor we supplied made this year. So now we are to pin our hopes on a handful of F-16s?
You were in desert storm, right? You remember how the coalition bombing destroyed the Iraqi morale to fight and their fixed positions. We have already seen that Ukraine is using its long range missiles to great effect in destroying Russia’s SAM system and temporarily knock out transport to the front lines. 60 F16s will double the size of Ukraine’s air forces and since those F16s can carry more western missiles and fly more missions because they are in better shape than Ukraine’s current aircraft they will be able to do more. Russia’s southern front is supplied by one rail line from Crimea and one from Russia through Mariupol and Berdyansk. An attack by a 10 F16s can launch enough western missiles to get passed the Russian defenses and put the arches of the Crimean bridge at bottom of the kerch straits and once the F16s arrive Ukraine can strike the rail docks in Kerch and Berdyansk and contest Russian shipping in the Sea of Azov so Russia can’t just replace the Crimean bridge with ferries. That basically severs half of Russia supply lines to the Zap oblast and then regular ATCAMs attacks on the railyards in Berdyansk or Mariupol sever the others. Without massive amounts of artillery Russia can’t defend its prepared fortifications in the south.
quote:
but they lack the capability to regain that territory. Look at the results from the summer offensive for proof of that.
No this summer was proof that Ukraine can’t win with halfass effort by the west for aid. Since June, Ukraine has started production of a ground based version of the Neptune cruise missile and the Sampson missile system has entered full production. By the spring Ukraine will be able to launch cruise missile attacks on Russia and even Moscow. Ukraine has started production of its own artillery shells that is increasing capacity each month and will supposedly equal to the amount of shells it expends by late spring. Like I said earlier, the Malyshev factory in Kharkiv has been repaired and is repairing damaged tanks and restoring tanks from storage now. Ukraine has anywhere from 500-1000 more T64s and T72 in storage (nobody knows the condition of them) but Ukraine is restoring 50 Soviet era tanks per month. Rheinmental will be producing Leopard2s in Ukraine with by the end of the year. Next year’s aid to Ukraine will include more M1s. Also, Ukraine has tripled the number of combat engineers it is training for demining work.
quote:
No, anyone who calls for peace now realizes the situation for Ukraine will only get worse the longer this war goes.
Ukraine will be stronger this time next year than they are now so how will it get worse? Again how will the terms next year be worse when Russia is already saying surrender and disarm if you want peace now?
This post was edited on 11/16/23 at 11:53 am
Posted on 11/16/23 at 11:55 am to Lima Whiskey
quote:
Russia can produce somewhere between 900 and 1000 MBTs a year,
You are repeating disproven FSB talking points and you know you are posting lies. Let’s take a look at the actual data.
quote:LINK
A closer look at the data provided by Murakhovsky reveals the following:
the russian army received 210 new tanks in 2023, compared to only 30 units in 2020;
the number of T-72B3s delivered to the russian army in 2023 is 840 vehicles, compared to 120 units in 2020;
also, the "taken from storage" category amounts to 840 vehicles, including T-80, T-72, T-62, and T-55/54 tank types.
However, when cross-referencing these calculations with other sources, a different picture emerges. The Swedish research institute FOI, in its report on the military potential of russia after 1.5 years of war against Ukraine, estimates a much smaller annual tank production of around 520 new vehicles per year:
62 tanks, type T-90M Proryv, and 62 more of types T-90/T-90A;
80 tanks, type T-80BVM;
140 tanks, type T-72B3, and 140 more of T-72B3M modification.
As the data shows Russia can produce 200-500 new MBTs per year. The rest of its replacement tanks are T55s and T62s taken straight out of storage and made to run. No new electronics, optics, armor, or a larger gun. They are useless in tank to tank warfare and urban combat because of their small gun and outdated armor. Even a 50 year old RPG which Ukraine has millions of can kill a T55.
Meanwhile Rheinmentall is opening tank factory in Ukraine that can produce 400 new Leopard2s per year. The Italian arms maker Leonardo is about to start producing Leopard2s. The USA can double M1A2 production at any time by just adding an extra shift. Poland is producing ~100 K2s per year. Oh yeah and the USA and NATO and Ukraine don’t have to worry about technology and tool bans like Russia does. That is why the west doesn’t have to use computer chips from Chinese washing machines in its tanks.
This post was edited on 11/16/23 at 4:35 pm
Posted on 11/16/23 at 11:59 am to Hateradedrink
quote:
I think it’s in Ukraine’s interest to ask. If Russia asks for more or is unreasonable, that will re-motivate the west to keep arming Ukraine.
The UN reached out last spring on behalf of Ukraine and Lavrov basically said surrender and disarm and then we can negotiate. Ukraine rejected that obviously. The UN reached out again on behalf of Ukraine in late September and Lavrov didn’t even bother to reply. What would have changed since September?
Posted on 11/16/23 at 12:03 pm to Lima Whiskey
quote:
they will have to take Odessa to keep Crimea safe.
They better get moving on that
Posted on 11/16/23 at 12:03 pm to doubleb
quote:
The truth is both sides are struggling mightily to keep shooting. We all know about Ukraine’s struggles and NATO’s help, but Russia has had to get help too. N Korea gave 100s of thousands of shells, and Iran was giving thousands of drones.
Can the evil empire keep up?
My sense is that this war will be decided by the will to fight. Ukraine is fighting for its home, hearth and nation and has many profound grievances against Moscow within living memory. Russia's troops have no real motivation to be dying in Ukraine.
Posted on 11/16/23 at 12:05 pm to Lima Whiskey
quote:
The bitter hindsight is that the peace deal they were offered in April of 22 was their best option. And by refusing to bend, they will ultimately lose more and more territory. They've had the moral victories
Winning the Battle of Kyiv, the Battle of Kharkiv city, the battle of Kharkiv oblast, stopping Russia’s drive on Odessa and eventually recapturing Kherson city are more than moral victories. Also Ukraine has regained 54% of its lost territory since March 2022. I realize that you are an FSB officer pretending to be an American veteran but even you have to realize that the war stopped going Russia’s way on 3/22/22 when Ukraine turned the tide and started driving Russian troops away from Kyiv.
Posted on 11/16/23 at 12:21 pm to CitizenK
The battle front has been stalled since June, the two sides are just slinging monkey poo at each other. Past time to defund Ukraine and get to work on the US southern border
Posted on 11/16/23 at 12:24 pm to WeeWee
quote:
Winning the Battle of Kyiv, the Battle of Kharkiv city, the battle of Kharkiv oblast, stopping Russia’s drive on Odessa and eventually recapturing Kherson city are more than moral victories. Also Ukraine has regained 54% of its lost territory since March 2022. I realize that you are an FSB officer pretending to be an American veteran but even you have to realize that the war stopped going Russia’s way on 3/22/22 when Ukraine turned the tide and started driving Russian troops away from Kyiv.
Don't forget the absolute raping of the Black Sea Fleet by a country with no navy.
Posted on 11/16/23 at 12:28 pm to Warfox
quote:
Not directed at your directly, but I sure do love how the goal-posts have continually moved backwards: I thought Ukraine was sure to win?!?
Good. In February of 22 I would have bet money that Russia would have won by now. The fact they are in a stalemate right now is surprising.
Posted on 11/16/23 at 1:07 pm to Hateradedrink
quote:
this revisionist history from russophiles is hilarious. the only entity who claimed victory before even starting this war was Russia
Seriously. It’s russias war. It’s their burden to seize Ukraine, not Ukraine’s job to capture moscow. The goal post shifting is coming from the poliboard retards who fell for Q.
Posted on 11/16/23 at 1:10 pm to Darth_Vader
quote:
Here’s the bottom line. Unlike many here, I look at this war from a strictly neutral perspective. I’m not emotionally tied to either side in this war. And I’m telling you, Ukraine needs to sue for peace.
I don’t disagree but here’s the thing: Putin has no interest in peace talks. His goals are maximalist and Russia has fallen far short.. Calling it a day at this point will be seen as embarrassment/weakness. Neither side right now is capable of forcing the other to peace talks.
Posted on 11/16/23 at 1:14 pm to Warfox
quote:the irony
I sure do love how the goal-posts have continually moved backwards
Posted on 11/16/23 at 1:29 pm to Trevaylin
quote:
The battle front has been stalled since June, the two sides are just slinging monkey poo at each other. Past time to defund Ukraine and get to work on the US southern border
For one last time, the aid we give Ukraine has nothing to do with locking down the Southern border. Zero, zilch, nada.
It’s just a talking point pro Russian propagandist use to help their side.
The reason our Southern border is so wide open is not because of a lack of funds. It’s because the Democrats believe it is best for them politically to do nothing.
This post was edited on 11/16/23 at 1:31 pm
Posted on 11/16/23 at 1:33 pm to WeeWee
I remember the old Soviet (applies to the DNC and ex-wives) negotiating tactic: "What is mine is mine and what is yours is negotiable"
Posted on 11/16/23 at 1:39 pm to TigersnJeeps
Discussing peace talks now is stupid, because Putin is still committed to conquering the rest of the Donbas.
He wasn't interested in peace talks before the invasion, and he's not interested in them now.
People who are now pushing Ukraine to ask for peace are really just pro-Putin.
He wasn't interested in peace talks before the invasion, and he's not interested in them now.
People who are now pushing Ukraine to ask for peace are really just pro-Putin.
Posted on 11/16/23 at 2:48 pm to WeeWee
How Many Tanks a Month russian "Uralvagonzavod" Can Produce, Really
https://en.defence-ua.com/industries/how_many_tanks_a_month_russian_uralvagonzavod_can_produce_really-5921.html
Posted on 11/16/23 at 2:57 pm to WestCoastAg
Corporate media is throwing in the towel.
Posted on 11/16/23 at 3:39 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
Discussing peace talks now is stupid, because Putin is still committed to conquering the rest of the Donbas.
He wasn't interested in peace talks before the invasion, and he's not interested in them now.
People who are now pushing Ukraine to ask for peace are really just pro-Putin.
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