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Started By
Message
re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 11/16/23 at 8:17 am to No Colors
Posted on 11/16/23 at 8:17 am to No Colors
quote:
Every day that passes Ukraine has more weapons and Russia has fewer.
The reverse is true, Ukraine has fewer heavy weapons today, than they did on the first day of the war. Europe has given what it can, and due to the anemic industrial output of the West, Western states can not produce remotely enough new equipment to keep Ukraine supplied. You can see this in the push to produce a million 155mm shells a year, it's going to fall far short. To keep Ukraine in the fight, the West would need the ability to manufacture 3 or 4 million 155mms shells a year, to produce IFVs, MBTs, SPGs by the 100s. The West can't though, due to deindustrialization, and it would take us years to build that capability.
Europe is preparing to cut bait, as Meloni said in her call to two Russian pranksters who had identified themselves as African diplomats. The problem she said was “finding a way out that is acceptable for both sides without destroying international law." Ukraine in general is feeling the cold, be it from Warsaw, or Paris, who has explained to Kiev that any further aid will need to be purchased by Kiev, from French defense contractors. Germany has double aid, but the total aren't meaningful.
The war for all purposes is over, but it may take a year or two to settle.
3
Posted on 11/16/23 at 8:19 am to CitizenK
Let the EU support them economically, but it really is time for the bloodshed to end. Sometimes leaders need to put their pride aside and do what is best for the people.
I really don't know the difference it would be living under Ukrainian or Russian flags. Seems like it was very similar before all of this started. Would say that if I had to live under either flag it would still be better than being dead. Dead lasts a long time.
I really don't know the difference it would be living under Ukrainian or Russian flags. Seems like it was very similar before all of this started. Would say that if I had to live under either flag it would still be better than being dead. Dead lasts a long time.
Posted on 11/16/23 at 8:20 am to doubleb
I think it’s in Ukraine’s interest to ask.
If Russia asks for more or is unreasonable, that will re-motivate the west to keep arming Ukraine.
If Russia asks for more or is unreasonable, that will re-motivate the west to keep arming Ukraine.
Posted on 11/16/23 at 8:21 am to Lima Whiskey
quote:
due to the anemic industrial output of the West, Western states can not produce remotely enough new equipment to keep Ukraine supplied.
That's enough of that nonsense now.
Russia has an economy roughly the size of New Jersey. "The West" as you call it (let's just say the USA and the EU plus England) has industrial economic output about 30x what Russia has.
I mean, you have to just be trolling at this point.
Posted on 11/16/23 at 8:28 am to No Colors
quote:
You don't know anything about me.
My arguments are just as sober and detached as anyone on either side here, and way more so than most.
I hate to point out the obvious but these...
quote:
If Ukraine gives up 20% of its territory and most of its port access to a belligerent neighbor, then it rewards bad behavior. No emotion to that. It's just logic. As long as your people are willing to fight and die, then you resist aggression to the last.
If your country was invaded by a neighbor, would you roll over and sue for peace? Or would you fight it out?
Are in fact emotional arguments and divorced from the reality of the situation on the ground.
quote:
Countries that fight back survive. Countries that negotiate with bad actors end up swallowed up or hollowed out.
The cold hard truth of the matter is Ukraine will not get any stronger than it was in June of this year. That was their apex of military capability. Much of that capability has been consumed in the abortive summer offensive. Even with continued Western support, which is already showing signs of slowing as more and more NATO members deplete their stocks of disposable arms and ammunition, Ukraine will not be able to achieve anything on the battlefield other than the slow but steady attrition of their ever-dwindling military resources.
This war has devolved into a war of attrition much like WWI. If you want to look to history for guidance, that's where you should look. And the way wars of attrition are decided is when one side reaches the point of exhaustion and eventual collapse. In WWI, this is what caused Russia to fall out of the war in 1917. The same happened to Austria and Germany in 1918. The weight of resources and men arrayed against them was too much. Basically, it came down to the side who had the physical, not just moral, means to outlast the other. The same is true in this war. Sure, Ukraine has the moral strength to continue the war, at least for now. But it's the physical means where they're lacking. As the fighting continues the physical scales will tilt more and more in favor of Russia. And if the fighting continues long enough, Ukraine will find itself in the same situation Russia found itself in 1917 and Germany and Austria found themselves in 1918.
This is why Ukraine should seek to end the war now. to continue the war will only mean the weakening and eventual collapse of the Ukrainian army. It's far better they seek peace now while they can still negotiate from a somewhat favorable position because from this point on, their position will only get worse.
Posted on 11/16/23 at 8:38 am to Lima Whiskey
quote:
The war for all purposes is over, but it may take a year or two to settle.
That’s a bold prediction.
The truth is both sides are struggling mightily to keep shooting. We all know about Ukraine’s struggles and NATO’s help, but Russia has had to get help too. N Korea gave 100s of thousands of shells, and Iran was giving thousands of drones.
Can the evil empire keep up?
Posted on 11/16/23 at 8:39 am to Darth_Vader
approximately 400 miles from Ukrainian held territory...
Huge blast and fire at Russian military unit near Volgograd — Video
November 16, 2023, 02:50 AM
A military base went up in flames after a huge explosion in Kotluban in Russia’s Volgograd Oblast early on Nov. 16, local Telegram channels reported, noting the presence of numerous special services vehicles at the scene.
The posted footage shows a massive fireball swirling out of the military facility at around 1 a.m.
Video - The New Voice of Ukraine
Huge blast and fire at Russian military unit near Volgograd — Video
November 16, 2023, 02:50 AM
A military base went up in flames after a huge explosion in Kotluban in Russia’s Volgograd Oblast early on Nov. 16, local Telegram channels reported, noting the presence of numerous special services vehicles at the scene.
The posted footage shows a massive fireball swirling out of the military facility at around 1 a.m.
Video - The New Voice of Ukraine
Posted on 11/16/23 at 9:01 am to Darth_Vader
quote:
but it’s time for Ukraine to ask for peace terms.
Russia has walked away from UN mediated peace talks twice this year already. Why would now be any different? Putin is committed to overthrowing the Ukrainian government and making Ukraine a puppet state out of Ukraine. That is unacceptable to the Ukrainian people. If Zelensky agreed to peace on Russia's terms the Ukrainian people would string him up from a light pole.
quote:
And this bridgehead over the river has zero chance to develop into anything of significance.
IIRC you said that this war would be over in three days and then Ukraine would never retake Kherson. Your crystal ball is obviously broken.
quote:
The bottom line is Ukraine has shot their bolt.
Should the USA have surrendered after Washington failed to retake NYC during the revolutionary war or the British should have surrendered after Dunkirk? They shot one bolt but they have others. Once the F16s arrive in Ukraine and the USA provides more ATCAMs Ukraine can take out Russia's logistics and if we provide them with enough HARM missiles air power comes back into the equation. If Ukrainian planes can harrase Russian artillery next spring it will make clearing the minefields much easier for Ukraine. That is just one example of bolts that are still in Ukraine's quiver.
quote:
There is nothing left to gain from continuing the war.
They have 17% of their territory to gain.
quote:
Ukraine should seek terms now and end the pointless bloodshed.
That is Ukraine's decision to make not outs. The Ukrainian people are not ready to stop fighting. If Zelensky asked for peace now the Ukrainians would string him up from a light pole. Russia would resume the attack and there would be even more bloodshed. Anyone who thinks peace is possible now is naive.
Posted on 11/16/23 at 9:03 am to Lima Whiskey
quote:
Ukraine has fewer heavy weapons today,
Ukraine has over a 1000 more tanks today than it had on 2/23/22. Please take your FSB talking points back to Russia.
Posted on 11/16/23 at 9:09 am to Darth_Vader
quote:
The cold hard truth of the matter is Ukraine will not get any stronger than it was in June of this year.
That is not true at all. Rheinmentall is opening a factory in western Ukraine next year and has contracted with the Ukrainian government to produce 400 new Leopard2s for the UAF to be delivered within 18 months of the factory opening. Ukraine has repaired the 2nd largest tank factory in the world in Kharkiv and has resumed restoring tanks from Ukraine’s massive tank graveyards. Ukraine is also preparing to increase its conscription class sizes. My options maybe skewed from emotion but I do have sauces of intel in Ukraine. I also have friends in Russia who tell me that inflation is killing them and their economy is worse than people think. You have no idea what the f**k is happening on the ground or behind the scenes. You opinions are skewed from your experiences with armor in the USA. Ukraine is fighting an armored war without air dominance which is something that the USA has not done since the North African campaign of WW2. So your logic is flawed and you have no more idea than I do about what will happen in the next year or so.
This post was edited on 11/16/23 at 9:59 am
Posted on 11/16/23 at 9:11 am to WeeWee
Where the heck did they get 1000 tanks from? I know some have sent a few here and there, but 1k is a pretty substantial increase
Posted on 11/16/23 at 9:40 am to Darth_Vader
quote:
I know many don’t want to admit it, but it’s time for Ukraine to ask for peace terms. Their summer offensive failed to achieve any appreciable gains, and nowhere near their goals. And this bridgehead over the river has zero chance to develop into anything of significance.
Russian telegram channels are freaking out about the bridgehead. It's a ~3 hour drive from Krynky to the E105, roughly 120km to gain fire control over all entrance/exits from Crimea.
quote:
There is nothing left to gain from continuing the war. Ukraine should seek terms now and end the pointless bloodshed.
There are two things to gain from continuing the war: entrance into the EU and security guarantees from NATO/US/UK/etc.
Russian peace terms explicitly prohibit Ukraine from joining the EU or NATO. Any peace that doesn't allow Ukraine freedom to align itself with whomever they choose to align themselves with is unacceptable.
Ukraine has EU talks in December, which is when the EU is going to give Ukraine $50b in aid. Germany is giving Ukraine $8b in aid. South Korea and Japan are quietly ramping up defense manufacturing.
Posted on 11/16/23 at 9:47 am to WeeWee
quote:
Russia has walked away from UN mediated peace talks twice this year already. Why would now be any different? Putin is committed to overthrowing the Ukrainian government and making Ukraine a puppet state out of Ukraine. That is unacceptable to the Ukrainian people. If Zelensky agreed to peace on Russia's terms the Ukrainian people would string him up from a light pole.
What you're refusing to understand is at this point of the war, Ukraine's position will not improve but only worsen. The pace they'll be able to secure a year from now will be far worse than any peace they could secure now.
quote:
IIRC you said that this war would be over in three days and then Ukraine would never retake Kherson. Your crystal ball is obviously broken.
You obviously are confusing me for someone else because I've never said anything like that.
quote:
Should the USA have surrendered after Washington failed to retake NYC during the revolutionary war or the British should have surrendered after Dunkirk?
Ukraine is in a far different situation than America was in 1776 or Britian was in 1940. If you will recall, in the Revolutionary War, the world's other superpower, namely France, entered the war and helped seal the American victory. In the case of Britian in 1940, they likewise were saved by the intervention of a superpower entering the war as a belligerent on their side, namely the United States of America. While I do agree that the war would swing wildly in favor of Ukraine if the US were to enter this war on their side, let's be honest. The odds the US enters the war as an active belligerent is very remote.
quote:
They shot one bolt but they have others. Once the F16s arrive in Ukraine and the USA provides more ATCAMs Ukraine can take out Russia's logistics and if we provide them with enough HARM missiles air power comes back into the equation. If Ukrainian planes can harrase Russian artillery next spring it will make clearing the minefields much easier for Ukraine. That is just one example of bolts that are still in Ukraine's quiver.
How many F-16s will we be supplying? Will it be enough to have a strategic impact on the war? I'll agree one of the main reasons the Ukranian summer offensive failed was due to lack of air support. But will we be giving Ukraine anything more than a token force of F-16s? We've already seen how little impact the armor we supplied made this year. So now we are to pin our hopes on a handful of F-16s?
quote:
They have 17% of their territory to gain.
but they lack the capability to regain that territory. Look at the results from the summer offensive for proof of that.
quote:
That is Ukraine's decision to make not outs. The Ukrainian people are not ready to stop fighting. If Zelensky asked for peace now the Ukrainians would string him up from a light pole. Russia would resume the attack and there would be even more bloodshed. Anyone who thinks peace is possible now is naive.
No, anyone who calls for peace now realizes the situation for Ukraine will only get worse the longer this war goes. Again, the peace they will be able to secure a year from now will be far less favorable than anything they could get now. That's what you're apparently incapable of realizing.
Posted on 11/16/23 at 9:50 am to ticklechain
quote:
Where the heck did they get 1000 tanks from? I
Ukraine had around 600-700 operational tanks on 2/23/22. Per wikipedia and other open source intel Ukraine has ~1750 operational tanks as of 11/1/23. Ukraine has captured and repaired > 100 tanks from Russia, restored ~500T64s and T72s from its massive tank graveyards, received ~200 T72s donated from NATO countries, 81 Leopard2s donated from NATO, 13 Challenger 2 tanks from the UK, 31 M1A1s from the USA, and at least 135 Leopard 1A5 are in the process of being delivered to Ukraine at present.
This post was edited on 11/16/23 at 10:09 am
Posted on 11/16/23 at 9:51 am to cypher
quote:
He is likely to announce his candidacy before the end of 2023.
Is it really an "election" when anyone running against him will somehow fall backwards onto a magazine full of bullets a month before election day?
Posted on 11/16/23 at 10:07 am to Darth_Vader
quote:
No, anyone who calls for peace now realizes the situation for Ukraine will only get worse the longer this war goes. Again, the peace they will be able to secure a year from now will be far less favorable than anything they could get now. That's what you're apparently incapable of realizing.
The situation may get worse for Ukraine, but I think (JMHO) that it will also get worse for Russia also. I believe that’s what you are missing.
Economic sanctions
Relying on NK and Iranian aid
Manpower issues
Political issues
Sabotage
Ukranian blows to their infrastructure
Losses on the battlefield
All of these things add up. All of them will weaken the Russian Bear.
No, Ukraine won’t beat them, but they can hurt them by not giving in.
Posted on 11/16/23 at 10:28 am to doubleb
quote:
The situation may get worse for Ukraine, but I think (JMHO) that it will also get worse for Russia also. I believe that’s what you are missing.
Economic sanctions Relying on NK and Iranian aid Manpower issues Political issues Sabotage Ukranian blows to their infrastructure Losses on the battlefield
All of these things add up. All of them will weaken the Russian Bear. No, Ukraine won’t beat them, but they can hurt them by not giving in.
Not directed at your directly, but I sure do love how the goal-posts have continually moved backwards: I thought Ukraine was sure to win?!?
Posted on 11/16/23 at 10:29 am to doubleb
quote:
Economic sanctions
Relying on NK and Iranian aid
Manpower issues
Political issues
Sabotage
Ukranian blows to their infrastructure
Losses on the battlefield
Putin has most definitely done his best to insulate Moscow and St. Petersburg from any ill effect of his war. That is slowly changing.
Posted on 11/16/23 at 10:30 am to Warfox
quote:
Not directed at your directly, but I sure do love how the goal-posts have continually moved backwards: I thought Ukraine was sure to win?!?
this revisionist history from russophiles is hilarious. the only entity who claimed victory before even starting this war was Russia.
too bad they all got blown up and ruined their parade uniforms
Posted on 11/16/23 at 10:46 am to Warfox
quote:
I thought Ukraine was sure to win?!?
The West doesn't care about Ukraine and doesn't care if they "win". The point from the Western perspective is to use Western funds and weapons (along with Ukrainian bodies) to ensure that Russia is sufficiently bled dry of young men to the point that they'll never have the manpower to threaten Central and Western Europe again. Russia is in a state of horrible demographic decline. If the Ukrainians can kill enough young Russian men, this is literally their last war. On the bright side, if Russia can be defeated or fought to a stalemate with sufficient losses, it would be the perfect time for the U.S. to bow out of NATO and let the Europeans provide for their own future defense.
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